Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Aussie rules AFL Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks
Result
115:85
19/09/2025 at 05:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : AFL - Play Offs - Semi-finals
Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Goals
1713
Behinds
137
Kicks
211194
Handballs
138139
Disposals
349333
Frees For
1916
Frees Against
1619
Clearances Completed
5033
Marks
6777
Tackles
7778
Hitouts
3952

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Quarter (9 - 22)
  • 03:27, Lewis M. (G),
  • 09:09, (Behind Rushed),
  • 10:19, Lewis M. (Behind),
  • 10:56, Ginnivan J. (G),
  • 14:00, (Behind Rushed),
  • 17:54, Weddle J. (Behind),
  • 19:52, Nash C. (G),
  • 23:18, (Behind Rushed),
  • 28:42, Dangerfield P. (G),
  • 30:05, Close B. (Behind),
  • 31:04, Miers G. (Behind),
  • 2nd Quarter (34 - 20)
  • 02:00, (Behind Rushed),
  • 02:37, (Behind Rushed),
  • 04:17, Neale S. (G),
  • 06:16, Blicavs M. (G),
  • 09:00, Lewis M. (G),
  • 11:54, Lewis M. (G),
  • 14:27, Mannagh S. (G),
  • 18:16, Watson N. (G),
  • 21:04, Cameron J. (G),
  • 23:57, Martin J. (Behind),
  • 26:01, Stengle T. (G),
  • 28:40, Cameron J. (Behind),
  • 30:07, Dempsey O. (Behind),
  • 31:15, Bowes J. (Behind),
  • 3rd Quarter (46 - 19)
  • 00:37, Stengle T. (G),
  • 03:33, Dangerfield P. (G),
  • 05:43, Holmes M. (G),
  • 07:13, Smith B. (Behind),
  • 08:39, Cameron J. (G),
  • 12:52, Gunston J. (G),
  • 14:43, Macdonald C. (G),
  • 17:51, Dempsey O. (Behind),
  • 19:31, Impey J. (G),
  • 21:56, (Behind Rushed),
  • 22:53, Martin J. (G),
  • 30:08, Cameron J. (G),
  • 31:44, Mannagh S. (G),
  • 33:56, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 35:02, Close B. (Behind),
  • 4th Quarter (26 - 24)
  • 01:00, Gunston J. (G),
  • 02:46, (Behind Rushed),
  • 04:50, Dangerfield P. (G),
  • 07:14, Miers G. (G),
  • 12:34, Moore D. (G),
  • 14:14, Gunston J. (G),
  • 16:10, Cameron J. (Behind),
  • 18:13, Chol M. (G),
  • 20:01, Stengle T. (G),
  • 25:58, Smith B. (G),

Chances of winning


Geelong Cats
61.9%
Hawthorn Hawks
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57.7% 42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3% 43.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)
  • Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Geelong Cats that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hawthorn Hawks could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.5
    (1.65)

    2.45
    (2.25)
    7.7%
    (5.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 163.50
  • The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)
  • What is the prediction for Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks?
  • Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Geelong will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Hawthorn will win (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 88:77.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 4.
    • Geelong has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Hawthorn is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Hawthorn may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Geelong might have a minor edge in this game.
    • We predict that Geelong will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 1768:1568. (average 88.4:78.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Geelong won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1052:872. (average 95.6:79.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks were as follows:
    21.04.2025 Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks 86:79
    06.07.2024 Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks 110:59
    01.04.2024 Hawthorn Hawks - Geelong Cats 70:106
    10.04.2023 Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks 127:45
    Latest results of Geelong Cats
    Latest results of Hawthorn Hawks
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Adelaide Crows (1)Collingwood Magpies (4)55 : 79
    3Brisbane LionsBye
    4Fremantle Dockers (6)Gold Coast Suns (7)79 : 80
    5Geelong Cats (2)Brisbane Lions (3)112 : 74
    7Adelaide CrowsBye
    8GWS Giants (5)Hawthorn Hawks (8)88 : 107

    Quarter-finals
    1Collingwood Magpies (4)Bye
    2Brisbane Lions (3)Gold Coast Suns (7)100 : 47
    3Geelong Cats (2)Bye
    4Adelaide Crows (1)Hawthorn Hawks (8)67 : 101

    Semi-finals
    1Collingwood Magpies (4)Brisbane Lions (3)71 : 100
    2Geelong Cats (2)Hawthorn Hawks (8)115 : 85

    Final
    1Brisbane Lions (3)Geelong Cats (2)
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