St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Aussie rules AFL St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks
Result
74:94
05/07/2025 at 05:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : AFL - Round 17
St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Goals
1014
Behinds
1410
Kicks
208213
Handballs
151132
Disposals
359345
Frees For
1622
Frees Against
2216
Clearances Completed
4236
Marks
80103
Tackles
8258
Hitouts
3064

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Quarter (8 - 17)
  • 01:45, Sinclair J. (Behind),
  • 05:47, Chol M. (Behind),
  • 10:00, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 12:37, Gunston J. (G),
  • 14:29, (Behind Rushed),
  • 17:19, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 18:58, Hall M. (G),
  • 22:34, Watson N. (G),
  • 24:12, (Behind Rushed),
  • 28:29, Hall M. (Behind),
  • 2nd Quarter (16 - 25)
  • 03:57, Higgins J. (Behind),
  • 06:59, Chol M. (Behind),
  • 11:14, Butler D. (Behind),
  • 13:21, Tauru A. (Behind),
  • 17:14, Ginnivan J. (G),
  • 18:34, Windhager M. (G),
  • 20:36, Higgins J. (G),
  • 23:50, Macdonald C. (G),
  • 24:58, Watson N. (G),
  • 26:10, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
  • 30:35, Newcombe J. (G),
  • 3rd Quarter (22 - 30)
  • 03:44, (Behind Rushed),
  • 04:50, (Behind Rushed),
  • 06:19, (Behind Rushed),
  • 09:32, Sharman C. (Behind),
  • 11:13, Ramsden M. (G),
  • 14:59, Morrison H. (G),
  • 17:07, Macrae J. (G),
  • 20:00, Chol M. (G),
  • 23:33, Hall M. (G),
  • 26:52, Owens M. (G),
  • 28:35, Gunston J. (G),
  • 30:51, Chol M. (G),
  • 4th Quarter (28 - 22)
  • 00:36, Higgins J. (G),
  • 05:13, Moore D. (G),
  • 07:27, Moore D. (Behind),
  • 10:14, Sharman C. (G),
  • 12:52, D'Ambrosio M. (G),
  • 14:42, Wood M. (Behind),
  • 15:19, Moore D. (Behind),
  • 15:59, Higgins J. (Behind),
  • 17:32, Moore D. (Behind),
  • 19:14, Nash C. (Behind),
  • 20:15, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
  • 21:15, Hall M. (G),
  • 26:52, Gunston J. (G),
  • 28:23, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
  • 30:27, Marshall R. (G),

Chances of winning


St Kilda Saints
31%
Hawthorn Hawks
69%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.2% 66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1% 62.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
  • Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St Kilda Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.94
    (2.87)

    1.36
    (1.43)
    7.6%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 166.50
  • The most likely Handicap: 2 (-18)
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 3.
    • St Kilda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Hawthorn has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Hawthorn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Hawthorn is seen as the favorite.
    • We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1401:1524. (average 77.8:84.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 786:894. (average 71.5:81.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks were as follows:
    10.05.2024 Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints 58:53
    29.07.2023 Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints 93:122
    26.05.2023 St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks 78:88
    Latest results of St Kilda Saints
    Latest results of Hawthorn Hawks
    AFL Table
    2025
    PlWDL%%Pts
    1Collingwood Magpies1614021508:1085138.9956
    2Brisbane Lions1611141436:1252114.7046
    3Adelaide Crows1611051569:1135138.2444
    4Geelong Cats1611051601:1210132.3144
    5Hawthorn Hawks1611051441:1212118.8944
    6Western Bulldogs1610061716:1288133.2340
    7Gold Coast Suns1510051432:1169122.5040
    8GWS Giants1610061405:1255111.9540
    9Fremantle Dockers1610061354:1245108.7640
    10Sydney Swans167091265:135493.4328
    11Port Adelaide Power167091248:142587.5828
    12Carlton Blues1660101245:129696.0624
    13Essendon Bombers156091084:141976.3924
    14Melbourne Demons1650111253:144686.6520
    15St Kilda Saints1650111270:148285.7020
    16North Melbourne1641111237:160177.2618
    17Richmond Tigers1630131015:161063.0412
    18West Coast Eagles1610151055:165063.944

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