St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Aussie rules AFL St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks
Result
74:94
05/07/2025 at 05:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : AFL - Round 17
St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Goals
1014
Behinds
1410
Kicks
208213
Handballs
151132
Disposals
359345
Frees For
1622
Frees Against
2216
Clearances Completed
4236
Marks
80103
Tackles
8258
Hitouts
3064

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Quarter (8 - 17)
  • 01:45, Sinclair J. (Behind),
  • 05:47, Chol M. (Behind),
  • 10:00, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 12:37, Gunston J. (G),
  • 14:29, (Behind Rushed),
  • 17:19, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 18:58, Hall M. (G),
  • 22:34, Watson N. (G),
  • 24:12, (Behind Rushed),
  • 28:29, Hall M. (Behind),
  • 2nd Quarter (16 - 25)
  • 03:57, Higgins J. (Behind),
  • 06:59, Chol M. (Behind),
  • 11:14, Butler D. (Behind),
  • 13:21, Tauru A. (Behind),
  • 17:14, Ginnivan J. (G),
  • 18:34, Windhager M. (G),
  • 20:36, Higgins J. (G),
  • 23:50, Macdonald C. (G),
  • 24:58, Watson N. (G),
  • 26:10, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
  • 30:35, Newcombe J. (G),
  • 3rd Quarter (22 - 30)
  • 03:44, (Behind Rushed),
  • 04:50, (Behind Rushed),
  • 06:19, (Behind Rushed),
  • 09:32, Sharman C. (Behind),
  • 11:13, Ramsden M. (G),
  • 14:59, Morrison H. (G),
  • 17:07, Macrae J. (G),
  • 20:00, Chol M. (G),
  • 23:33, Hall M. (G),
  • 26:52, Owens M. (G),
  • 28:35, Gunston J. (G),
  • 30:51, Chol M. (G),
  • 4th Quarter (28 - 22)
  • 00:36, Higgins J. (G),
  • 05:13, Moore D. (G),
  • 07:27, Moore D. (Behind),
  • 10:14, Sharman C. (G),
  • 12:52, D'Ambrosio M. (G),
  • 14:42, Wood M. (Behind),
  • 15:19, Moore D. (Behind),
  • 15:59, Higgins J. (Behind),
  • 17:32, Moore D. (Behind),
  • 19:14, Nash C. (Behind),
  • 20:15, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
  • 21:15, Hall M. (G),
  • 26:52, Gunston J. (G),
  • 28:23, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
  • 30:27, Marshall R. (G),

Chances of winning


St Kilda Saints
31%
Hawthorn Hawks
69%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.2% 66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1% 62.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
  • Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St Kilda Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.94
    (2.87)

    1.36
    (1.43)
    7.6%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 166.50
  • The most likely Handicap: 2 (-18)
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 3.
    • St Kilda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Hawthorn has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Hawthorn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Hawthorn is seen as the favorite.
    • We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1401:1524. (average 77.8:84.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 786:894. (average 71.5:81.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks were as follows:
    10.05.2024 Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints 58:53
    29.07.2023 Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints 93:122
    26.05.2023 St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks 78:88
    Latest results of St Kilda Saints
    Latest results of Hawthorn Hawks
    AFL Table
    2025
    PlWDL%%Pts
    1Collingwood Magpies1915041742:1290135.0460
    2Adelaide Crows1914051918:1314145.9756
    3Brisbane Lions1913151689:1524110.8354
    4Geelong Cats1913061949:1452134.2352
    5Hawthorn Hawks1913061677:1399119.8752
    6GWS Giants1913061722:1454118.4352
    7Fremantle Dockers1913061636:1464111.7552
    8Gold Coast Suns1812061677:1403119.5348
    9Western Bulldogs1911082033:1533132.6244
    10Sydney Swans1990101499:159693.9236
    11Port Adelaide Power1980111419:170683.1832
    12Carlton Blues1970121450:155493.3128
    13Melbourne Demons1960131532:170389.9624
    14St Kilda Saints1960131535:177786.3824
    15Essendon Bombers1860121227:171271.6724
    16Richmond Tigers1950141223:179668.1020
    17North Melbourne1941141422:195472.7718
    18West Coast Eagles1910181249:196863.474

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