St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/07/2025 at 05:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Marvel Stadium (Melbourne).

: AFL - Round 17

Match Stats


Goals
10	14
Behinds
14	10
Kicks
208	213
Handballs
151	132
Disposals
359	345
Frees For
16	22
Frees Against
22	16
Clearances Completed
42	36
Marks
80	103
Tackles
82	58
Hitouts
30	64

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Quarter (8 - 17)
01:45, Sinclair J. (Behind),
05:47, Chol M. (Behind),
10:00, Gunston J. (Behind),
12:37, Gunston J. (G),
14:29, (Behind Rushed),
17:19, Gunston J. (Behind),
18:58, Hall M. (G),
22:34, Watson N. (G),
24:12, (Behind Rushed),
28:29, Hall M. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (16 - 25)
03:57, Higgins J. (Behind),
06:59, Chol M. (Behind),
11:14, Butler D. (Behind),
13:21, Tauru A. (Behind),
17:14, Ginnivan J. (G),
18:34, Windhager M. (G),
20:36, Higgins J. (G),
23:50, Macdonald C. (G),
24:58, Watson N. (G),
26:10, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
30:35, Newcombe J. (G),
3rd Quarter (22 - 30)
03:44, (Behind Rushed),
04:50, (Behind Rushed),
06:19, (Behind Rushed),
09:32, Sharman C. (Behind),
11:13, Ramsden M. (G),
14:59, Morrison H. (G),
17:07, Macrae J. (G),
20:00, Chol M. (G),
23:33, Hall M. (G),
26:52, Owens M. (G),
28:35, Gunston J. (G),
30:51, Chol M. (G),
4th Quarter (28 - 22)
00:36, Higgins J. (G),
05:13, Moore D. (G),
07:27, Moore D. (Behind),
10:14, Sharman C. (G),
12:52, D'Ambrosio M. (G),
14:42, Wood M. (Behind),
15:19, Moore D. (Behind),
15:59, Higgins J. (Behind),
17:32, Moore D. (Behind),
19:14, Nash C. (Behind),
20:15, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
21:15, Hall M. (G),
26:52, Gunston J. (G),
28:23, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
30:27, Marshall R. (G),

Chances of winning

St Kilda Saints
31%

Hawthorn Hawks
69%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

62.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St Kilda Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.87)		1.36 ↓ (1.43)	7.6% (5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 166.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-18)

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 3.
St Kilda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Hawthorn has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Hawthorn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Hawthorn is seen as the favorite.
We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1401:1524. (average 77.8:84.7).
Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 786:894. (average 71.5:81.3).

How many head-to-head matches has St Kilda Saints won against Hawthorn Hawks?

St Kilda Saints has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Hawthorn Hawks won against St Kilda Saints?

Hawthorn Hawks has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks were as follows:

10.05.2024 Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints 58:53

29.07.2023 Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints 93:122

26.05.2023 St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks 78:88

Latest results of St Kilda Saints

29.06.2025 Fremantle Dockers - St Kilda Saints 81:69 ✺

21.06.2025 Collingwood Magpies - St Kilda Saints 108:74 ✺

12.06.2025 St Kilda Saints - Western Bulldogs 60:132 ✺

01.06.2025 Melbourne Demons - St Kilda Saints 63:91 ✺

25.05.2025 St Kilda Saints - Gold Coast Suns 61:80 ✺

Latest results of Hawthorn Hawks

28.06.2025 Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos 150:65 ✺

13.06.2025 Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows 47:44 ✺

05.06.2025 Western Bulldogs - Hawthorn Hawks 59:81 ✺

30.05.2025 Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks 107:56 ✺

24.05.2025 Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions 60:93 ✺

AFL Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
1	Adelaide Crows	22	17	0	5	2165:1535	141.04	68
2	Geelong Cats	22	16	0	6	2322:1650	140.73	64
3	Brisbane Lions	22	15	1	6	1972:1725	114.32	62
4	Collingwood Magpies	22	15	0	7	1909:1551	123.08	60
5	Hawthorn Hawks	22	15	0	7	1966:1602	122.72	60
6	GWS Giants	22	15	0	7	2010:1741	115.45	60
7	Fremantle Dockers	22	15	0	7	1866:1718	108.61	60
8	Western Bulldogs	22	14	0	8	2396:1708	140.28	56
9	Gold Coast Suns	21	14	0	7	1953:1611	121.23	56
10	Sydney Swans	22	11	0	11	1727:1851	93.30	44
11	St Kilda Saints	22	9	0	13	1746:1973	88.49	36
12	Carlton Blues	22	8	0	14	1709:1805	94.68	32
13	Port Adelaide Power	22	8	0	14	1634:2069	78.98	32
14	Melbourne Demons	22	7	0	15	1826:1956	93.35	28
15	Essendon Bombers	21	6	0	15	1421:1966	72.28	24
16	North Melbourne	22	5	1	16	1705:2252	75.71	22
17	Richmond Tigers	22	5	0	17	1385:2094	66.14	20
18	West Coast Eagles	22	1	0	21	1415:2320	60.99	4

Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )

Which TV channels are streaming of St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
New-zealand	Sky Sport 7
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 8