St. Pauli vs Union Berlin: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

26/01/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg).

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 19
Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.23	0.88
Ball Possession
44%	56%
Goal Attempts
16	14
Shots on Goal
5	2
Shots off Goal
3	9
Blocked Shots
8	3
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
5	7
Shots inside the Box
13	11
Shots outside the Box
3	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
Free Kicks
15	6
Offsides
1	0
Fouls
6	15
Yellow Cards
0	3
Throw-ins
15	25
Touches in the Opposition Box
29	17
Passes
78% (300/385)	82% (409/498)
Passes in the final third
70% (54/77)	58% (58/100)
Crosses
41% (7/17)	44% (7/16)
Tackles
73% (8/11)	58% (7/12)
Clearances Total
31	20
Interceptions
6	2

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Guilavogui M. ⚽, Irvine J. (A),
35', Schafer A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ritzka L. ↓, Boukhalfa C. ↑,
46', Schafer A. ↓, Benes L. ↑,
50', Benes L. 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Guilavogui M. ⚽, Eggestein J. (A),
51', Querfeld L. 🟨,
60', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Volland K. ↑,
60', Querfeld L. ↓, Vertessen Y. ↑,
71', Haberer J. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
71', Skov R. ↓, Rothe T. ↑,
78', Weisshaupt N. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
90+2', Eggestein J. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
90+2', Saliakas M. ↓, Stevens F. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 0, Sinani D. ⚽, Guilavogui M. (A),
90+4', Guilavogui M. ↓, Banks S. ↑,

Chances of winning

St. Pauli 40%

Draw 30.3%

Union Berlin 29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

St. Pauli 37.5%

Draw 30%

Union Berlin 32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

St. Pauli 34.5%

Draw 27.6%

Union Berlin 35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Pauli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Union Berlin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

St. Pauli - Union Berlin Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.56)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	3.25 ↑ (2.95)	3.7% (4.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Union Berlin?

The most likely score is 1:1.

Preview Facts

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 14 and 13).
Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 1.
Recent matches St. Pauli is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Union Berlin is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Union Berlin could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Recently St. Pauli have a series of guest games.
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
There will not play in St. Pauli: Ahlers S. (Knee Injury) Burchert S. (Groin Injury) Dzwigala A. (Red Card) Metcalfe C. (Leg Injury) Ritzka L. (Injury) Saad E. (Ankle Injury) Smith E. (Yellow Cards) Wagner R. (Thigh Injury) Zoller S. (Thigh Injury)
There will not play in Union Berlin: Ilic A. (Injury) Prtajin I. (Leg Injury) Ronnow F. (Injury) Stein Y. (Leg Injury)
Last 18 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 24:33 (average 1.3:1.8).
Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:9 (average 1.6:1.1).

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Union Berlin?

St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Union Berlin won against St. Pauli?

Union Berlin has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Union Berlin were as follows:

30.08.2024 Union Berlin - St. Pauli 1:0

21.12.2022 Union Berlin - St. Pauli 3:2

Latest results of St. Pauli

18.01.2025 Heidenheim - St. Pauli 0:2 ✺

15.01.2025 Bochum - St. Pauli 1:0 ✺

11.01.2025 St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt 0:1 ✺

05.01.2025 Eintracht Braunschweig - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺

21.12.2024 Stuttgart - St. Pauli 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Union Berlin

19.01.2025 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:1 ✺

15.01.2025 Union Berlin - Augsburg 0:2 ✺

11.01.2025 Heidenheim - Union Berlin 2:0 ✺

05.01.2025 Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel 1:2 ✺

21.12.2024 Werder Bremen - Union Berlin 4:1 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2024/25

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich ✔	31	23	6	2	90:29	61	75
2	Bayer Leverkusen ✔	31	19	10	2	66:35	31	67
3	Eintracht Frankfurt	31	16	7	8	62:42	20	55
4	Freiburg	31	15	6	10	44:47	-3	51
5	RB Leipzig	31	13	10	8	48:42	6	49
6	Dortmund	31	14	6	11	60:49	11	48
7	Mainz	31	13	8	10	48:39	9	47
8	Werder Bremen	31	13	7	11	48:54	-6	46
9	B. Monchengladbach	31	13	5	13	51:50	1	44
10	Augsburg	31	11	10	10	33:42	-9	43
11	Stuttgart	31	11	8	12	56:51	5	41
12	Wolfsburg	31	10	9	12	53:48	5	39
13	Union Berlin	31	9	9	13	31:45	-14	36
14	St. Pauli	31	8	7	16	26:36	-10	31
15	Hoffenheim	31	7	9	15	40:58	-18	30
16	Heidenheim	31	7	4	20	33:60	-27	25
17	Holstein Kiel	31	5	7	19	45:74	-29	22
18	Bochum	31	5	6	20	30:63	-33	21

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Clinched Spots for Teams

Bayern Munich is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
Bayer Leverkusen is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

Which TV channels are streaming of St. Pauli - Union Berlin?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, New World Sport App, StarTimes App
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, TV Cultura, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport+, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	iNews, K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+, Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 4
Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 3
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, Flow Sports 1, Flowsports.co
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Onefootball