Atalanta vs Roma: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

12/05/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo).

: Serie A - Round 36
Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.40	0.58
Ball Possession
57%	43%
Total shots
16	10
Shots on target
3	4
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
8	7
Passes
81% (378/464)	74% (259/350)
Yellow Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
2.40	0.58
xG on target (xGOT)
1.19	1.03
Total shots
16	10
Shots on target
3	4
Shots off target
8	3
Blocked Shots
5	3
Shots inside the Box
12	5
Shots outside the Box
4	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
8	7
Touches in opposition box
29	13
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
14	14
Passes
81% (378/464)	74% (259/350)
Long passes
51% (23/45)	27% (17/62)
Passes in final third
73% (98/135)	63% (72/115)
Crosses
26% (7/27)	22% (4/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.61	0.48
Throw-ins
17	16
Fouls
14	14
Tackles
90% (9/10)	83% (10/12)
Duels won
61	57
Clearances
30	27
Interceptions
7	10
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	1
xGOT faced
1.03	1.19
Goals prevented
0.03	-0.81

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Lookman A. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Cristante B. ⚽, Soule M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
68', Pasalic M. ↓, Sulemana I. ↑,
68', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Sulemana I. ⚽, Samardzic L. (A),
76', Rensch D. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
82', Bellanova R. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
85', Shomurodov E. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
85', Kone M. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
86', Dovbyk A. ↓, Saelemaekers A. ↑,
88', Lookman A. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
88', Retegui M. ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
90', Djimsiti B. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Atalanta
43.8%

Draw
28.1%

Roma
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

25.9%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

26.6%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atalanta's form might have worsened.

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atalanta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atalanta - Roma Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.89)	3.41 ↓ (3.69)	3.4 ↓ (4.08)	4.4% (4.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Atalanta - Roma?

The most likely score is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 4.
At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
Atalanta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Atalanta: Cuadrado J. (Injury) Hien I. (Yellow Cards) Kolasinac S. (Knee Injury) Palestra M. (Muscle Injury) Scalvini G. (Shoulder Injury) Scamacca G. (Thigh Injury)
There will not play in Roma: Buba Aboubacar (Injury) Dybala P. (Thigh Injury) Pellegrini Lo. (Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Atalanta: Kossounou O. (Injury) Lookman A. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 36:25. (average 1.8:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 2.2:1.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Atalanta won against Roma?

Atalanta has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Roma won against Atalanta?

Roma has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Atalanta - Roma were as follows:

02.12.2024 Roma - Atalanta 0:2

12.05.2024 Atalanta - Roma 2:1

07.01.2024 Roma - Atalanta 1:1

24.04.2023 Atalanta - Roma 3:1

18.09.2022 Roma - Atalanta 0:1

Latest results of Atalanta

04.05.2025 Monza - Atalanta 0:4 ✺

27.04.2025 Atalanta - Lecce 1:1 ✺

20.04.2025 Milan - Atalanta 0:1 ✺

13.04.2025 Atalanta - Bologna 2:0 ✺

06.04.2025 Atalanta - Lazio 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Roma

04.05.2025 Roma - Fiorentina 1:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Inter Milan - Roma 0:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Roma - Verona 1:0 ✺

13.04.2025 Lazio - Roma 1:1 ✺

06.04.2025 Roma - Juventus 1:1 ✺

Italian Serie A Table

2024/25

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Napoli ✔	37	23	10	4	57:27	30	79
2	Inter ✔	37	23	9	5	77:35	42	78
3	Atalanta ✔	37	22	8	7	76:34	42	74
4	Juventus	37	17	16	4	55:33	22	67
5	AS Roma	37	19	9	9	54:35	19	66
6	Lazio	37	18	11	8	61:48	13	65
7	Fiorentina	37	18	8	11	57:39	18	62
8	Bologna	37	16	14	7	56:44	12	62
9	AC Milan	37	17	9	11	59:43	16	60
10	Como	37	13	10	14	49:50	-1	49
11	Torino	37	10	14	13	39:43	-4	44
12	Udinese	37	12	8	17	39:53	-14	44
13	Genoa	37	9	13	15	34:48	-14	40
14	Cagliari	37	9	9	19	40:54	-14	36
15	Verona	37	9	7	21	32:65	-33	34
16	Parma	37	6	15	16	41:56	-15	33
17	Lecce	37	7	10	20	26:58	-32	31
18	Empoli	37	6	13	18	32:57	-25	31
19	Venezia	37	5	14	18	30:53	-23	29
20	Monza ✔	37	3	9	25	28:67	-39	18

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B

Clinched Spots for Teams

Napoli is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
Inter is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
Atalanta is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
Monza is Relegated to Serie B

Which TV channels are streaming of Atalanta - Roma?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, New World Sport 7, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Sports, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab
World	Onefootball