Paris Saint-Germain vs Real Madrid: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer FIFA Club World Cup
Soccer FIFA Club World Cup Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid
Result
4:0
09/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : FIFA Club World Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.520.71
Ball Possession
68%32%
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
50
Corner Kicks
36
Passes
93% (631/681)83% (255/306)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
2.520.71
xG on target (xGOT)
3.560.89
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
46
Shots inside the Box
146
Shots outside the Box
35
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
50
Corner Kicks
36
Touches in opposition box
2620
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
40
Free Kicks
99
Passes
93% (631/681)83% (255/306)
Long passes
79% (48/61)53% (16/30)
Passes in final third
84% (103/123)77% (86/111)
Crosses
38% (3/8)6% (1/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.390.41
Throw-ins
713
Fouls
99
Tackles
92% (12/13)56% (5/9)
Duels won
4426
Clearances
1612
Interceptions
68
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
02
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
0.893.56
Goals prevented
0.89-0.44

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 0)
  • 6', 1 - 0, Ruiz F. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
  • 9', 2 - 0, Dembele O. ⚽,
  • 24', 3 - 0, Ruiz F. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),
  • 28', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Neves J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 59', Dembele O. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
  • 59', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Barcola B. ↑,
  • 64', Asencio R. ↓, Eder Militao ↑,
  • 64', Bellingham J. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
  • 65', Vinicius Junior ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
  • 66', Doue D. ↓, Mayulu S. ↑,
  • 66', Ruiz F. ↓, Zaire-Emery W. ↑,
  • 71', Garcia G. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
  • 73', Carvajal D. 🟨,
  • 79', Mendes N. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
  • 83', Guler A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
  • 87', 4 - 0, Ramos G. ⚽, Barcola B. (A),

Chances of winning


Paris Saint-Germain
43.7%		Draw
26.7%		Real Madrid
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40% 26.3% 33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8% 28.1% 31.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
  • Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
    •

    Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.21 ↓
    (2.39)    		 3.58 ↓
    (3.65)    		 3.2 ↑
    (2.84)    		 4.3%
    (4.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    •
    What is the prediction for Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid?
  • Users Predictions: 89 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 58 - 65.2%). Real will win (votes: 13 - 14.6%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 20.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 55.3% – 75.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 19 high ROI users predict this event. PSG (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Real (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%).
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
    • AH 0 - PSG (votes: 7 - 100%).
    • AH -0.25 - PSG (votes: 5 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSG won 2.
    • PSG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Real is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in PSG: Hernandez L. (Red Card) Mukiele N. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Endrick (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Red Card) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Reinier (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Real: Camavinga E. (Groin Injury)
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, PSG won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.1:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, PSG won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).
    Latest results of Paris Saint-Germain
    05.07.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 2:0 ✺
    29.06.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Inter Miami 4:0 ✺
    23.06.2025 Seattle Sounders - Paris Saint-Germain 0:2 ✺
    19.06.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Botafogo RJ 0:1 ✺
    15.06.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Atlético Madrid 4:0 ✺
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    05.07.2025 Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund 3:2 ✺
    01.07.2025 Real Madrid - Juventus 1:0 ✺
    26.06.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Real Madrid 0:3 ✺
    22.06.2025 Real Madrid - Pachuca 3:1 ✺
    18.06.2025 Real Madrid - Al-Hilal 1:1 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Inter (E1)Fluminense (F2)0 : 2
    2Manchester City (G1)Al Hilal (H2)3 : 4
    3Palmeiras (A1)Botafogo RJ (B2)1 : 0
    4Benfica (C1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 4
    5PSG (B1)Inter Miami (A2)4 : 0
    6Flamengo RJ (D1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 4
    7Real Madrid (H1)Juventus (G2)1 : 0
    8Dortmund (F1)Monterrey (E2)2 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Al Hilal (H2)2 : 1
    2Palmeiras (A1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 2
    3PSG (B1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 0
    4Real Madrid (H1)Dortmund (F1)3 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Chelsea (D2)0 : 2
    2PSG (B1)Real Madrid (H1)4 : 0

    Final
    1Chelsea (D2)PSG (B1)3 : 0
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