Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer UEFA Champions League
Soccer UEFA Champions League Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain
Result
1:1
06/05/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)
Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.401.03
Ball possession
65%35%
Total shots
1815
Shots on target
67
Big chances
33
Corner kicks
18
Passes
87% (496/570)71% (213/301)
Yellow cards
33
Expected goals (xG)
1.401.03
xG on target (xGOT)
1.231.85
Total shots
1815
Shots on target
67
Shots off target
73
Blocked shots
55
Shots inside the box
138
Shots outside the box
57
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
33
Corner kicks
18
Touches in opposition box
4017
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free kicks
1211
Passes
87% (496/570)71% (213/301)
Long passes
64% (39/61)27% (18/67)
Passes in final third
82% (170/207)60% (56/94)
Crosses
13% (2/15)25% (2/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.280.39
Throw ins
2512
Fouls
1112
Tackles
75% (6/8)29% (8/28)
Duels won
4559
Clearances
831
Interceptions
710
Errors leading to shot
12
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
65
xGOT faced
1.851.23
Goals prevented
0.850.23

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 3', 0 - 1, Dembele O. ⚽, Kvaratskhelia K. (A),
  • 8', Mendes N. 🟨,
  • 33', Tah J. 🟨,
  • 45+3', Kvaratskhelia K. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 65', Dembele O. ↓, Barcola B. ↑,
  • 67', Stanisic J. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
  • 68', Tah J. ↓, Kim Min-Jae ↑,
  • 76', Doue D. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
  • 76', Ruiz F. ↓, Beraldo L. ↑,
  • 78', Diaz L. 🟨,
  • 79', Musiala J. ↓, Jackson N. ↑,
  • 85', Upamecano D. ↓, Karl L. ↑,
  • 85', Mendes N. ↓, Mayulu S. ↑,
  • 86', Marquinhos 🟨,
  • 90+4', 1 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Davies A. (A),
  • 90+7', Kimmich J. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Bayern Munich
58.7%		Draw
18.4%		Paris Saint-Germain
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
55.8% 19.5% 24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1% 18.7% 23.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)
  • Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
    •

    Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.63 ↓
    (1.72)    		 5.22 ↑
    (4.91)    		 4.25 ↑
    (3.88)    		 4%
    (4.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 4.00
    What is the prediction for Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain?
    • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
      • O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
      • 1X2, 2nd Half - Bayern (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • 1X2, 1st Half - Bayern (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
      • EH -1 - Bayern (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • EH -2 - draw (5.00) (votes: 0 - 0%) .
      • DC - PSG (2.36) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • AH -0.75, 1st Half - Bayern (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • AH -1.5 - Bayern (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • EH -1, 2nd Half - draw (3.45) (votes: 0 - 0%) .
      • EH -1, 1st Half - draw (3.23) (votes: 0 - 0%) .
      • AH -0.5, 2nd Half - Bayern (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • O/U 1.75, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
      • O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • TQ, OT - PSG (1.98) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • DNB - PSG (3.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • AH 0 - PSG (3.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (80 of 100 users predict this - 80%).
      Confidence interval (95%): 72.16% – 87.84%.
    • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 40 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 26 - 65%). PSG (votes: 14 - 35%).
    • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    Preview Facts
    • First leg result: 4-5.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 3.
    • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
    • Recently, PSG has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Bayern is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Bayern: Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Gnabry S. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ndiaye B. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in PSG: Chevalier L. (Muscle Injury) Hakimi A. (Thigh Injury) Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.7:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bayern won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 2.2:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain were as follows:
    28.04.2026 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 5:4
    04.11.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 1:2
    05.07.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 2:0
    26.11.2024 Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain 1:0
    08.03.2023 Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain 2:0
    Latest results of Bayern Munich
    02.05.2026 Bayern Munich - Heidenheim 3:3 ✺
    28.04.2026 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 5:4 ✺
    25.04.2026 Mainz - Bayern Munich 3:4 ✺
    22.04.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich 0:2 ✺
    19.04.2026 Bayern Munich - Stuttgart 4:2 ✺
    Latest results of Paris Saint-Germain
    02.05.2026 Paris Saint-Germain - Lorient 2:2 ✺
    28.04.2026 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 5:4 ✺
    25.04.2026 Angers - Paris Saint-Germain 0:3 ✺
    22.04.2026 Paris Saint-Germain - Nantes 3:0 ✺
    19.04.2026 Paris Saint-Germain - Lyon 1:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG11006:153
    2Bayern Munich11005:053
    3Barcelona11005:143
    4Manchester Utd11004:043
    5Como11004:133
    6Stuttgart11003:123
    7Sporting CP11003:123
    8Manchester City11002:023
    9Aston Villa11003:213
    10Lens11003:213
    11Betis11003:213
    12Dortmund11003:213
    13Liverpool11002:113
    14Real Madrid11002:113
    15Arsenal11001:013
    16AEK Athens11001:013
    17AS Roma10101:101
    18Shakhtar Donetsk10101:101
    19PSV10101:101
    20Fenerbahce10101:101
    21Villarreal10012:3-10
    22Lille10012:3-10
    23Slavia Prague10012:3-10
    24Club Brugge KV10012:3-10
    25Inter10011:2-10
    26Atl. Madrid10011:2-10
    27Napoli10010:1-10
    28LASK10010:1-10
    29Viking10011:3-20
    30Galatasaray10011:3-20
    31FC Porto10010:2-20
    32RB Leipzig10011:4-30
    33Feyenoord10011:5-40
    34Sabah Baku10010:4-40
    35Slovan Bratislava10011:6-50
    36Bodo/Glimt10010:5-50

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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