Mirassol vs Grêmio: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Mirassol - Grêmio
Result
4:1
16/04/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 4
  • Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
Mirassol - Grêmio - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.491.01
Ball Possession
41%59%
Total shots
1116
Shots on target
66
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
27
Passes
84% (310/369)89% (466/524)
Yellow Cards
24
Expected Goals (xG)
1.491.01
xG on target (xGOT)
2.931.85
Total shots
1116
Shots on target
66
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
25
Shots inside the Box
79
Shots outside the Box
47
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
27
Touches in opposition box
1926
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1612
Passes
84% (310/369)89% (466/524)
Long passes
39% (18/46)67% (33/49)
Passes in final third
70% (44/63)82% (155/190)
Crosses
40% (6/15)23% (7/30)
Expected assists (xA)
1.191.11
Fouls
1216
Tackles
54% (7/13)75% (9/12)
Duels won
3646
Clearances Total
3212
Interceptions
612
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
52
xGOT faced
1.852.93
Goals prevented
0.85-1.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 3', 1 - 0, Daniel Borges , Danielzinho (A),
  • 15', Braithwaite M. 🟨,
  • 18', Tiago Volpi 🟨,
  • 21', 2 - 0, Reinaldo (Pen),
  • 30', Gabriel , Yago Felipe ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Camilo Reijers , Edenilson ,
  • 46', Cristaldo F. , Dodi ,
  • 57', Daniel Fabricio , Negueba ,
  • 57', Cristian Renato , Edson Carioca ,
  • 60', Villasanti M. 🟨,
  • 64', Negueba 🟨,
  • 65', Pavon C. , Alysson ,
  • 66', Edenilson 🟨,
  • 77', Villasanti M. , Arezo M. ,
  • 79', 3 - 0, Reinaldo ,
  • 80', Iury Castilho , Clayson ,
  • 80', Neto Moura , Roni ,
  • 83', 3 - 1, Braithwaite M. , Arezo M. (A),
  • 84', Amuzu F. , Andre Henrique ,
  • 85', 4 - 1, Daniel Borges , Clayson (A),
  • 87', Daniel Borges 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Mirassol
38.1%
Draw
31%
Grêmio
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.3% 30.3% 38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1% 31% 37.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mirassol's performance.
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mirassol that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Mirassol - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.5
    (3.02)
    3.07
    (3.13)
    3.03
    (2.47)
    5.6%
    (5.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Mirassol - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 9.6%70.4%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Mirassol is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Recent matches Grêmio is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Mirassol could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
    • There will not play in Mirassol: Luiz Otavio (Injury) Matheus Sales (Injury) Ze Vitor (Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Olivera C. (Inactive) Walter Kannemann (Hip Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mirassol: David Braz (Injury) Leo Gamalho (Injury) Negueba (Inactive) Rafa Silva (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Luis Eduardo (Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Injury)
    • Last 1 head-to-head matches Mirassol won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2
    • Including matches at home between the teams Mirassol won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2
    Latest results of Mirassol
    13.04.2025 Bahia - Mirassol 1:1
    06.04.2025 Mirassol - Fortaleza 1:1
    29.03.2025 Cruzeiro - Mirassol 2:1
    02.03.2025 Corinthians - Mirassol 2:0
    23.02.2025 Mirassol - Palmeiras 2:3
    Latest results of Grêmio
    13.04.2025 Grêmio - Flamengo 0:2
    08.04.2025 Grêmio - Atlético Grau 2:0
    05.04.2025 Ceará - Grêmio 2:0
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ16113230:62436
    2Cruzeiro17104328:111734
    3Palmeiras15102319:12732
    4Bahia1584320:13728
    5Bragantino1783620:20027
    6Botafogo RJ1575318:81026
    7Mirassol1567224:141025
    8Sao Paulo1757518:19-122
    9Ceara1663716:16021
    10Internacional1656517:20-321
    11Corinthians1756616:20-421
    12Fluminense1562717:20-320
    13Atletico-MG1555516:16020
    14Gremio1655616:22-620
    15Vitoria1738614:18-417
    16Vasco1543816:20-415
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1635817:23-614
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1505109:25-165

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          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

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