Fiorentina vs Milan: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Italian Serie A Fiorentina - Milan
Result
1:1
11/01/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A - Round 20
  • Referee: Massa D. (Ita)
Fiorentina - Milan - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.481.81
Ball possession
52%48%
Total shots
2013
Shots on target
73
Big chances
53
Corner kicks
85
Passes
89% (385/431)86% (347/403)
Yellow cards
23
Expected goals (xG)
1.481.81
xG on target (xGOT)
1.940.93
Total shots
2013
Shots on target
73
Shots off target
67
Blocked shots
73
Shots inside the box
169
Shots outside the box
44
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
10
Big chances
53
Corner kicks
85
Touches in opposition box
3223
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
10
Free kicks
1410
Passes
89% (385/431)86% (347/403)
Long passes
51% (22/43)57% (20/35)
Passes in final third
88% (103/117)80% (86/108)
Crosses
19% (6/32)47% (9/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.961.22
Throw ins
1011
Fouls
1014
Tackles
70% (7/10)62% (8/13)
Duels won
4539
Clearances
1421
Interceptions
53
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
26
xGOT faced
0.931.94
Goals prevented
-0.070.94

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 31', Kean M. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Vanoli P. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Vanoli P. 🟥,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 53', Estupinan P. 🟨,
  • 60', Estupinan P. , Bartesaghi D. ,
  • 60', Fullkrug N. , Leao R. ,
  • 60', Jashari A. , Rabiot A. ,
  • 63', Loftus-Cheek R. , Fofana Y. ,
  • 65', Mandragora R. , Brescianini M. ,
  • 66', 1 - 0, Comuzzo P. , Gudmundsson A. (A),
  • 74', Pavlovic S. , Nkunku C. ,
  • 80', Fagioli N. 🟨,
  • 82', Gudmundsson A. , Solomon M. ,
  • 83', Parisi F. , Fortini N. ,
  • 83', Gosens R. , Ranieri L. ,
  • 84', Rabiot A. 🟨,
  • 90', 1 - 1, Nkunku C. , Fofana Y. (A),
  • 90+1', Ndour C. , Sohm S. ,
  • 90+4', Fofana Y. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Fiorentina
27.4%
Draw
28.4%
Milan
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
22.3% 27.2% 50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8% 26.6% 51.6%

Fiorentina - Milan Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
3.48
(4.23)
3.37
(3.47)
2.16
(1.87)
4.8%
(6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Fiorentina - Milan?
  • Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 5 - 8.3%). Milan will win (votes: 45 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 64%86%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Fiorentina (1.64) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Milan (2.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Fiorentina (1.36) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Fiorentina (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Milan will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 33 high ROI users predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 12.1%). Milan (votes: 26 - 78.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 9.1%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
  • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.
  • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
  • Milan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Milan might have a minor edge in this game.
  • There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)
  • There will not play in Milan: Gimenez S. (Ankle Injury) Tomori F. (Yellow Cards)
  • There are questionable in Fiorentina: Dzeko E. (Foot Injury) Richardson A. (Inactive) Viti M. (Inactive)
  • There are questionable in Milan: Nkunku C. (Ankle Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:33. (average 1.2:1.7).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.4:1.4).
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fiorentina - Milan were as follows:
19.10.2025 Milan - Fiorentina 2:1
05.04.2025 Milan - Fiorentina 2:2
06.10.2024 Fiorentina - Milan 2:1
30.03.2024 Fiorentina - Milan 1:2
25.11.2023 Milan - Fiorentina 1:0
Latest results of Fiorentina
07.01.2026 Lazio - Fiorentina 2:2
04.01.2026 Fiorentina - Cremonese 1:0
27.12.2025 Parma - Fiorentina 1:0
21.12.2025 Fiorentina - Udinese 5:1
Latest results of Milan
08.01.2026 Milan - Genoa 1:1
02.01.2026 Cagliari - Milan 0:1
28.12.2025 Milan - Verona 3:0
18.12.2025 Napoli - Milan 2:0
14.12.2025 Milan - Sassuolo 2:2
Italian Serie A Table
2025/26
PlWDLDiffPts
1Inter23181452:193355
2AC Milan23148138:172150
3Napoli23144533:211246
4Juventus23136439:182145
5AS Roma23141827:141343
6Como23118437:162141
7Atalanta2399530:201036
8Lazio2388724:21332
9Udinese2395926:34-832
10Bologna2386932:30230
11Sassuolo23851027:29-229
12Cagliari2377928:31-328
13Torino23751122:40-1826
14Genoa23581027:34-723
15Cremonese23581020:31-1123
16Parma23581015:30-1523
17Lecce23461313:30-1718
18Fiorentina23381225:36-1117
19Pisa241121119:40-2115
20Verona24291318:41-2315

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B

Which TV channels are streaming of Fiorentina - Milan?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 3, DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
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armeniaArmeniaFast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
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croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
czech-republicCzech-republicSport 1
denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play, TV2 Sport
europeEuropeGo3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
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romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
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saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaSTC TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 2
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport Football
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now
spainSpainDAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 3
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tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 1
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uruguayUruguayDisney+
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