Atalanta vs Lecce: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Italian Serie A Atalanta - Lecce
Result
4:1
14/09/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A - Round 3
  • Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)
Atalanta - Lecce - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.970.53
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
1912
Shots on target
83
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
82
Passes
85% (389/455)79% (280/353)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.970.53
xG on target (xGOT)
2.110.71
Total shots
1912
Shots on target
83
Shots off target
84
Blocked Shots
35
Shots inside the Box
134
Shots outside the Box
68
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
82
Touches in opposition box
3118
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
31
Free Kicks
712
Passes
85% (389/455)79% (280/353)
Long passes
41% (14/34)38% (20/52)
Passes in final third
73% (95/130)66% (92/140)
Crosses
13% (3/23)33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.900.45
Throw-ins
1418
Fouls
127
Tackles
79% (11/14)54% (7/13)
Duels won
4441
Clearances
2031
Interceptions
58
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.712.11
Goals prevented
-0.29-1.89

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 37', 1 - 0, Scalvini G. , Zalewski N. (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 51', 2 - 0, De Ketelaere C. , Krstovic N. (A),
  • 59', Pasalic M. , Brescianini M. ,
  • 59', Sottil R. , Pierotti S. ,
  • 60', Sala A. , Ndri K. ,
  • 70', 3 - 0, Zalewski N. , Krstovic N. (A),
  • 71', Stulic N. , Camarda F. ,
  • 71', Kouassi C. , Veiga D. ,
  • 73', 4 - 0, De Ketelaere C. ,
  • 75', De Ketelaere C. , Samardzic L. ,
  • 75', Sulemana K. , Maldini D. ,
  • 76', De Roon M. , Musah Y. ,
  • 79', Siebert J. , Tiago Gabriel ,
  • 82', 4 - 1, Ndri K. , Veiga D. (A),
  • 86', Zalewski N. , Bernasconi L. ,

Chances of winning


Atalanta
66.8%
Draw
21%
Lecce
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
67.6% 20% 12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4% 17.6% 14.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atalanta that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
  • Atalanta - Lecce Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.44
    (1.42)
    4.54
    (4.79)
    7.72
    (7.73)
    4.6%
    (4.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Atalanta - Lecce?
  • Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 38 - 71.7%). Lecce will win (votes: 4 - 7.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 20.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 59.6%83.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 3.
    • Recent form of Atalanta has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Lecce has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Atalanta is the undeniable favorite.
    • There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Ederson (Knee Injury) Kolasinac S. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Lecce: Jean G. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Atalanta: Lookman A. (Inactive) Scamacca G. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lecce: Kaba M. (Inactive) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:8. (average 2.2:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atalanta - Lecce were as follows:
    27.04.2025 Atalanta - Lecce 1:1
    19.08.2024 Lecce - Atalanta 0:4
    18.05.2024 Lecce - Atalanta 0:2
    30.12.2023 Atalanta - Lecce 1:0
    19.02.2023 Atalanta - Lecce 1:2
    Latest results of Atalanta
    30.08.2025 Parma - Atalanta 1:1
    24.08.2025 Atalanta - Pisa 1:1
    16.08.2025 Atalanta - Juventus 1:2
    10.08.2025 Atalanta - Opatija 3:3
    09.08.2025 Köln - Atalanta 4:0
    Latest results of Lecce
    29.08.2025 Lecce - Milan 0:2
    23.08.2025 Genoa - Lecce 0:0
    15.08.2025 Lecce - Juve Stabia 2:0
    09.08.2025 Monopoli - Lecce 2:2
    03.08.2025 Lecce - Carrarese 1:0
    Italian Serie A Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Napoli33006:159
    2Juventus33007:349
    3Cremonese32105:327
    4Udinese32104:227
    5Cagliari42115:327
    6AC Milan32014:226
    7AS Roma32012:116
    8Bologna42023:306
    9Atalanta31206:335
    10Como31113:214
    11Torino31111:5-44
    12Inter31029:633
    13Lazio31024:313
    14Sassuolo31023:5-23
    15Fiorentina30212:4-22
    16Verona30211:5-42
    17Genoa40222:4-22
    18Pisa30121:3-21
    19Parma30121:5-41
    20Lecce40132:8-61

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B

    Which TV channels are streaming of Atalanta - Lecce?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    africaAfricaAzam Sports 3, ZAP
    albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 1
    angolaAngolaZ Sports 1
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 4
    armeniaArmeniaFast Sports 2, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
    asiaAsiaSTARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
    australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
    austriaAustriaDAZN
    azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 2
    belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1, Play Sports 1
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
    brazilBrazilDisney+
    bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 3
    canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
    chinaChinaMigu
    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
    cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
    czech-republicCzech-republicSport 2
    denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play
    europeEuropeGo3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
    finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
    franceFranceDAZN France
    georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
    germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
    greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 2
    hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
    indonesiaIndonesiaVidio
    italyItaly214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
    japanJapanDAZN Japan
    kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports 2
    kosovoKosovoArena Premium 4, ART Sport 1
    kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 2
    macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 34 Football
    malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
    maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 3
    mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN
    moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 2
    netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 2
    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaESPN Norte
    norwayNorwayVG+
    peruPeruDisney+
    polandPolandEleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
    portugalPortugalSport TV5
    romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
    saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaSTC TV
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 4
    sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 2
    south-americaSouth-americaESPN 4 South
    south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
    spainSpainDAZN Espana
    swedenSwedenTV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
    switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
    tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 2
    thailandThailandTrue ID, True Premier Football 3
    turkeyTurkeyS Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
    turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 2
    ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDAZN, DAZN UK
    uruguayUruguayDisney+
    usaUsaCBS Sports Network, DAZN USA, Paramount+
    uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 2
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
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