Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

20/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

PreZero Arena (Sinsheim).

: Bundesliga - Round 4
Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	2.89
Ball Possession
38%	62%
Total shots
12	18
Shots on target
4	10
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
5	5
Passes
77% (257/334)	89% (497/560)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	2.89
xG on target (xGOT)
0.28	2.79
Total shots
12	18
Shots on target
4	10
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked Shots
3	5
Shots inside the Box
9	10
Shots outside the Box
3	8
Hit the Woodwork
1	2
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
5	5
Touches in opposition box
28	26
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
9	17
Passes
77% (257/334)	89% (497/560)
Long passes
51% (23/45)	61% (40/66)
Passes in final third
53% (50/95)	78% (103/132)
Crosses
40% (6/15)	31% (4/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.95	0.67
Throw-ins
16	17
Fouls
17	9
Tackles
54% (15/28)	50% (8/16)
Duels won
54	43
Clearances
26	20
Interceptions
9	8
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	3
xGOT faced
2.79	0.28
Goals prevented
-1.21	-0.72

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Coufal V. 🟨,
12', Diaz L. 🟨,
29', Goretzka L. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Karl L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
48', 0 - 2, Kane H. (Pen),
62', Goretzka L. ↓, Kimmich J. ↑,
62', Karl L. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
62', Jackson N. ↓, Gnabry S. ↑,
66', Damar M. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
69', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Upamecano D. ↑,
77', 0 - 3, Kane H. (Pen),
78', Burger W. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
78', Asllani F. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Coufal V. ⚽,
83', Coufal V. ↓, Akpoguma K. ↑,
83', Avdullahu L. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
86', Boey S. ↓, Bischof T. ↑,
90+9', 1 - 4, Gnabry S. ⚽,

Chances of winning

Hoffenheim
13.5%

Draw
18.6%

Bayern Munich
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13%

17.1%

69.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.7%

16.7%

71.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.06 ↓ (7.36)	5.18 ↓ (5.58)	1.44 ↑ (1.37)	3% (4.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

What is the prediction for Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich?

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 10 - 17.5%). Bayern will win (votes: 43 - 75.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 64.2% – 86.6%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 3 - 25%). Bayern (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1.
Hoffenheim is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Bayern is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Hoffenheim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Hoffenheim has had a series of away games.
In this match, Bayern is the undisputed favorite.
There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Foot Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Bayern: Davies A. (Knee Injury) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Musiala J. (Broken calfbone) Stanisic J. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Bayern: Guerreiro R. (Abdominal strain)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 24:51. (average 1.2:2.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Hoffenheim won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1.4:2.1).

How many head-to-head matches has Hoffenheim won against Bayern Munich?

Hoffenheim has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bayern Munich won against Hoffenheim?

Bayern Munich has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich were as follows:

17.05.2025 Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich 0:4

15.01.2025 Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim 5:0

18.05.2024 Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich 4:2

12.01.2024 Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim 3:0

15.04.2023 Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim 1:1

Latest results of Hoffenheim

13.09.2025 Union Berlin - Hoffenheim 2:4 ✺

30.08.2025 Hoffenheim - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:3 ✺

23.08.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim 1:2 ✺

16.08.2025 Hansa Rostock - Hoffenheim 0:4 ✺

01.08.2025 Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim 0:3 ✺

Latest results of Bayern Munich

17.09.2025 Bayern Munich - Chelsea 3:1 ✺

13.09.2025 Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV 5:0 ✺

30.08.2025 Augsburg - Bayern Munich 2:3 ✺

27.08.2025 Wehen Wiesbaden - Bayern Munich 2:3 ✺

22.08.2025 Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig 6:0 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	25:3	22	18
2	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	12:4	8	14
3	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	8:8	0	13
4	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	8:6	2	12
5	Bayer Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11
6	FC Koln	6	3	1	2	11:9	2	10
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	3	0	3	17:16	1	9
8	Freiburg	6	2	2	2	9:9	0	8
9	Hamburger SV	6	2	2	2	6:8	-2	8
10	St. Pauli	6	2	1	3	8:9	-1	7
11	Hoffenheim	6	2	1	3	9:12	-3	7
12	Werder Bremen	6	2	1	3	9:14	-5	7
13	Union Berlin	6	2	1	3	8:13	-5	7
14	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	11:13	-2	6
15	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	8:10	-2	5
16	Mainz	6	1	1	4	5:10	-5	4
17	B. Monchengladbach	6	0	3	3	5:12	-7	3
18	Heidenheim	6	1	0	5	4:11	-7	3

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport 2, Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 2, SportKlub 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball