Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

31/01/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Volksparkstadion (Hamburg).

: Bundesliga - Round 20
Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.27	2.35
Ball possession
28%	72%
Total shots
14	13
Shots on target
4	7
Big chances
4	5
Corner kicks
3	9
Passes
78% (203/261)	92% (631/687)
Yellow cards
6	4
Expected goals (xG)
2.27	2.35
xG on target (xGOT)
2.15	3.10
Total shots
14	13
Shots on target
4	7
Shots off target
5	4
Blocked shots
5	2
Shots inside the box
11	8
Shots outside the box
3	5
Hit the woodwork
0	2
Headed goals
1	0
Big chances
4	5
Corner kicks
3	9
Touches in opposition box
22	30
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
3	1
Free kicks
16	12
Passes
78% (203/261)	92% (631/687)
Long passes
38% (21/55)	63% (19/30)
Passes in final third
58% (29/50)	85% (204/240)
Crosses
42% (5/12)	13% (2/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.87	2.08
Throw ins
6	22
Fouls
12	16
Tackles
44% (11/25)	56% (5/9)
Duels won
54	45
Clearances
31	14
Interceptions
12	3
Errors leading to shot
0	3
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
4	1
xGOT faced
3.10	2.15
Goals prevented
1.10	0.15

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Remberg N. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Vieira F. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 1 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Karl L. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
46', 1 - 2, Diaz L. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
53', 2 - 2, Vuskovic L. ⚽, Mikelbrencis W. (A),
55', Muheim M. 🟨,
57', Kim Min-Jae 🟨,
59', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
65', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
65', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Tah J. ↑,
74', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
74', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
75', Lokonga A. S. 🟨,
85', Vieira F. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
85', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Pherai I. ↑,
86', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
87', Kane H. 🟨,
90+3', Heuer Fernandes D. 🟨,
90+5', Olise M. 🟨,
90+10', Capaldo N. 🟨,
90+10', Kimmich J. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Hamburger SV
10.8%

Draw
15.6%

Bayern Munich
73.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

15.4%

73%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.7%

15.5%

72.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.02 ↑ (8.17)	6.18 ↑ (6.15)	1.3 (1.3)	4.2% (5.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 - Bayern (2.85) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

AH +2 - Hamburg (1.62) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 3.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (35 of 42 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.06% – 94.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 2 - 8.7%). Bayern (votes: 19 - 82.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.
Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Bayern is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Hamburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Bayern is the obvious favorite.
There will not play in Hamburg: Dompe J. (Suspended) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Ramos G. (Inactive) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Injury) Sahiti E. (Inactive)
There will not play in Bayern: Guerreiro R. (Calf Injury) Laimer K. (Calf Injury)
There are questionable in Hamburg: Balde F. (Injury) Downs D. (Injury) Glatzel R. (Injury)
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 8:72. (average 0.4:4).
Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 5:28. (average 0.5:2.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Hamburger SV won against Bayern Munich?

Hamburger SV has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bayern Munich won against Hamburger SV?

Bayern Munich has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich were as follows:

13.09.2025 Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV 5:0

Latest results of Hamburger SV

23.01.2026 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺

17.01.2026 Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:0 ✺

10.01.2026 Freiburg - Hamburger SV 2:1 ✺

20.12.2025 Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:1 ✺

13.12.2025 Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV 4:1 ✺

Latest results of Bayern Munich

28.01.2026 PSV Eindhoven - Bayern Munich 1:2 ✺

24.01.2026 Bayern Munich - Augsburg 1:2 ✺

21.01.2026 Bayern Munich - Saint-Gilloise 2:0 ✺

17.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich 1:5 ✺

14.01.2026 Köln - Bayern Munich 1:3 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14:2	12	10
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11:6	5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8:8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9:10	-1	5
11	Schalke	4	1	2	1	3:4	-1	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	3:5	-2	4
13	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3
15	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6:9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1
18	B. Monchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6:16	-10	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 1, Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI
Ireland	NOW
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball