Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

28/02/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund).

: Bundesliga - Round 24
Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.04	2.05
Ball possession
33%	67%
Total shots
10	14
Shots on target
2	6
Big chances
2	3
Corner kicks
5	2
Passes
72% (206/286)	87% (513/591)
Yellow cards
1	0
Expected goals (xG)
1.04	2.05
xG on target (xGOT)
1.71	2.55
Total shots
10	14
Shots on target
2	6
Shots off target
3	4
Blocked shots
5	4
Shots inside the box
8	9
Shots outside the box
2	5
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
1	0
Big chances
2	3
Corner kicks
5	2
Touches in opposition box
28	28
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
3	1
Free kicks
10	15
Passes
72% (206/286)	87% (513/591)
Long passes
49% (28/57)	55% (38/69)
Passes in final third
64% (65/102)	71% (118/166)
Crosses
36% (5/14)	15% (2/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.50	1.60
Throw ins
16	19
Fouls
15	10
Tackles
67% (14/21)	53% (10/19)
Duels won
45	58
Clearances
33	21
Interceptions
16	14
Errors leading to shot
1	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	0
xGOT faced
2.55	1.71
Goals prevented
-0.45	-0.29

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Schlotterbeck N. ⚽, Svensson D. (A),
45+5', Can E. ↓, Bensebaini R. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
54', 1 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
62', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
67', Silva F. ↓, Guirassy S. ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Adeyemi K. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
75', Beier M. ↓, Inacio S. ↑,
75', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Svensson D. ⚽, Sabitzer M. (A),
87', 2 - 3, Kimmich J. ⚽,
90', Laimer K. ↓, Bischof T. ↑,
90+2', Olise M. ↓, Kim Min-Jae ↑,
90+2', Kimmich J. ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Borussia Dortmund
21.9%

Draw
21.4%

Bayern Munich
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

21.3%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

20.3%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↑ (4.11)	4.44 ↓ (4.46)	1.69 ↓ (1.71)	4.6% (5.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich?

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 4 - 6.3%). Bayern will win (votes: 48 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 17.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 65.7% – 86.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Bayern (1.24) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - Bayern (2.04) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +2 - Borussia D (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.75 - Bayern (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 3 - 11.1%). Bayern (votes: 23 - 85.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 1.
Borussia D is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Bayern is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Borussia D may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Bayern is seen as the favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 26:54. (average 1.3:2.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 1.5:2.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Borussia Dortmund won against Bayern Munich?

Borussia Dortmund has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bayern Munich won against Borussia Dortmund?

Bayern Munich has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich were as follows:

18.10.2025 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund 2:1

12.04.2025 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund 2:2

30.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich 1:1

30.03.2024 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund 0:2

04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich 0:4

Latest results of Borussia Dortmund

25.02.2026 Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund 4:1 ✺

21.02.2026 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 2:2 ✺

17.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta 2:0 ✺

13.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 4:0 ✺

07.02.2026 Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Bayern Munich

21.02.2026 Bayern Munich - Eintracht Frankfurt 3:2 ✺

14.02.2026 Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich 0:3 ✺

11.02.2026 Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig 2:0 ✺

08.02.2026 Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim 5:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich 2:2 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	34	28	5	1	122:36	86	89
2	Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70:34	36	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66:47	19	65
4	Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71:49	22	62
5	Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65:52	13	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68:47	21	59
7	Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51:57	-6	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	61:65	-4	44
9	Augsburg	34	12	7	15	45:61	-16	43
10	Mainz	34	10	10	14	44:53	-9	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44:58	-14	39
12	B. Monchengladbach	34	9	11	14	42:53	-11	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40:54	-14	38
14	FC Koln	34	7	11	16	49:63	-14	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37:60	-23	32
16	Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	45:69	-24	29
17	Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	41:72	-31	26
18	St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	29:60	-31	26

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	ESPN Premium
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	iNews, K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, PPTV Sports
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball