Bayern Munich vs Mainz: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

14/12/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Allianz Arena (Munich).

: Bundesliga - Round 14
Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
4.23	0.60
Ball Possession
85%	15%
Total shots
24	5
Shots on target
11	2
Big Chances
8	2
Corner Kicks
7	0
Passes
91% (885/970)	59% (104/176)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.23	0.60
xG on target (xGOT)
2.94	1.50
Total shots
24	5
Shots on target
11	2
Shots off target
7	3
Blocked Shots
6	0
Shots inside the Box
20	3
Shots outside the Box
4	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
0	2
Big Chances
8	2
Corner Kicks
7	0
Touches in opposition box
53	8
Accurate through passes
3	0
Offsides
6	1
Free Kicks
8	7
Passes
91% (885/970)	59% (104/176)
Long passes
62% (28/45)	41% (24/59)
Passes in final third
83% (275/330)	42% (20/48)
Crosses
30% (8/27)	40% (2/5)
Expected assists (xA)
3.33	0.61
Throw-ins
29	10
Fouls
7	8
Tackles
71% (5/7)	56% (10/18)
Duels won
44	42
Clearances
12	49
Interceptions
4	16
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	8
xGOT faced
1.50	2.94
Goals prevented
-0.50	0.94

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Karl L. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Potulski K. ⚽, Boving W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', da Costa D. 🟨,
61', Ito H. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
61', Bischof T. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
61', Goretzka L. ↓, Pavlovic A. ↑,
62', Kawasaki S. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Bell S. (A),
73', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Jackson N. ↑,
77', Laimer K. 🟨,
78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
83', Davies A. 🟨,
85', Potulski K. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),

Chances of winning

Bayern Munich
86.3%

Draw
8.9%

Mainz
4.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

84.6%

9.6%

5.7%

Bayern Munich - Mainz Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↓ (1.12)	10.69 ↑ (9.82)	19.79 ↑ (16.48)	4.2% (5.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

What is the prediction for Bayern Munich - Mainz?

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 38 - 84.4%). Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 73.8% – 95%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.75 - Mainz (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -5.5 - Bayern (6.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 - Bayern (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Bayern (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayern Munich will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Bayern (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:0.

Preview Facts

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 4.
Bayern is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Mainz has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Bayern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Bayern is the undisputed favorite.
There will not play in Bayern: Diaz L. (Yellow Cards) Musiala J. (Broken calfbone)
There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Mwene P. (Inactive) Nebel P. (Red Card) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
There are questionable in Mainz: Amiri N. (Inactive) Widmer S. (Calf Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 15 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 66:23. (average 3.3:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Bayern won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 44:10. (average 4.4:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Bayern Munich won against Mainz?

Bayern Munich has won 6 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Bayern Munich?

Mainz has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Bayern Munich - Mainz were as follows:

26.04.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 3:0

14.12.2024 Mainz - Bayern Munich 2:1

30.10.2024 Mainz - Bayern Munich 0:4

09.03.2024 Bayern Munich - Mainz 8:1

21.10.2023 Mainz - Bayern Munich 1:3

Latest results of Bayern Munich

09.12.2025 Bayern Munich - Sporting Lisbon 3:1 ✺

06.12.2025 Stuttgart - Bayern Munich 0:5 ✺

03.12.2025 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 2:3 ✺

29.11.2025 Bayern Munich - St. Pauli 3:1 ✺

26.11.2025 Arsenal - Bayern Munich 3:1 ✺

Latest results of Mainz

11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1 ✺

05.12.2025 Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 ✺

30.11.2025 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0 ✺

27.11.2025 Universitatea Craiova - Mainz 1:0 ✺

21.11.2025 Mainz - Hoffenheim 1:1 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	19	16	2	1	72:16	56	50
2	Dortmund	19	12	6	1	38:17	21	42
3	Hoffenheim	18	11	3	4	38:22	16	36
4	RB Leipzig	18	11	2	5	36:24	12	35
5	Stuttgart	18	10	3	5	33:26	7	33
6	Bayer Leverkusen	18	10	2	6	35:25	10	32
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	19	7	6	6	39:42	-3	27
8	Freiburg	18	6	6	6	29:31	-2	24
9	Union Berlin	19	6	6	7	24:30	-6	24
10	FC Koln	18	5	5	8	27:30	-3	20
11	B. Monchengladbach	18	5	5	8	23:29	-6	20
12	Wolfsburg	19	5	4	10	28:41	-13	19
13	Augsburg	19	5	4	10	22:36	-14	19
14	Hamburger SV	18	4	6	8	17:27	-10	18
15	Werder Bremen	18	4	6	8	21:35	-14	18
16	Mainz	19	3	6	10	21:32	-11	15
17	St. Pauli	18	3	4	11	16:31	-15	13
18	Heidenheim	19	3	4	12	17:42	-25	13

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of Bayern Munich - Mainz?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	RedeTV!, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	Viaplay
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball