Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

12/04/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Allianz Arena (Munich).

: Bundesliga - Round 29
Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.97	1.50
Ball Possession
62%	38%
Total shots
28	11
Shots on target
11	3
Big Chances
6	3
Corner Kicks
6	5
Passes
89% (570/642)	76% (294/389)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97	1.50
xG on target (xGOT)
2.38	1.37
Total shots
28	11
Shots on target
11	3
Shots off target
10	3
Blocked Shots
7	5
Shots inside the Box
19	8
Shots outside the Box
9	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
6	3
Corner Kicks
6	5
Touches in opposition box
44	19
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
5	8
Passes
89% (570/642)	76% (294/389)
Long passes
56% (24/43)	32% (19/60)
Passes in final third
80% (189/236)	62% (54/87)
Crosses
30% (6/20)	17% (2/12)
Expected assists (xA)
2.04	0.69
Fouls
8	5
Tackles
78% (7/9)	43% (6/14)
Duels won
35	42
Clearances Total
21	28
Interceptions
14	10
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	9
xGOT faced
1.37	2.38
Goals prevented
-0.63	0.38

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
48', 0 - 1, Beier M. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
54', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Guerreiro R. ↑,
63', Goretzka L. ↓, Pavlovic A. ↑,
63', Sane L. ↓, Gnabry S. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Guerreiro R. ⚽, Muller T. (A),
69', 2 - 1, Gnabry S. ⚽, Stanisic J. (A),
70', Brandt J. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
71', Ozcan S. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
75', 2 - 2, Anton W. ⚽,
81', Beier M. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
81', Sule N. ↓, Bensebaini R. ↑,
81', Muller T. ↓, Coman K. ↑,

Chances of winning

Bayern Munich
65.4%

Draw
18.5%

Borussia Dortmund
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.9%

18.1%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

17.5%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayern Munich, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.37)	5.16 ↓ (5.31)	6 ↓ (7.99)	4.1% (4.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

Watch this match and German Bundesliga with fubo (for US customers)

Network on : ESPN

What is the prediction for Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund?

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 35 - 79.5%). Borussia D will win (votes: 4 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 67.6% – 91.4%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Bayern (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Borussia D (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 8).
Bayern is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
Last 5 head-to-head matches Bayern won 2.
Bayern is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Recent matches Borussia D is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Borussia D could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Recently Borussia D have a series of guest games.
In this match Bayern is a favorite.
There will not play in Bayern: Buchmann T. (Shoulder Injury) Davies A. (Knee Injury) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Musiala J. (Muscle Injury) Neuer M. (Calf Injury) Upamecano D. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Borussia D: Azhil A. (Thigh Injury) Campbell C. (Muscle Injury) Mane F. (Muscle Injury) Paulina J. (Thigh Injury) Sabitzer M. (Knee Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Bayern: Coman K. (Thigh Injury) Pavlovic A. (Illness)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Bayern won 15 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 56:26 (average 2.8:1.3).
Including matches at home between the teams Bayern won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 28:8 (average 3.5:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Bayern Munich won against Borussia Dortmund?

Bayern Munich has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Borussia Dortmund won against Bayern Munich?

Borussia Dortmund has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund were as follows:

30.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich 1:1

30.03.2024 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund 0:2

04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich 0:4

01.04.2023 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund 4:2

08.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich 2:2

Latest results of Bayern Munich

08.04.2025 Bayern Munich - Inter Milan 1:2 ✺

04.04.2025 Augsburg - Bayern Munich 1:3 ✺

29.03.2025 Bayern Munich - St. Pauli 3:2 ✺

15.03.2025 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 1:1 ✺

11.03.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Borussia Dortmund

09.04.2025 Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund 4:0 ✺

05.04.2025 Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund 1:4 ✺

30.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 3:1 ✺

15.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 2:0 ✺

12.03.2025 Lille - Borussia Dortmund 1:2 ✺

Draw

Relegation

Final

1

Heidenheim

Elversberg

2 : 1, 2 : 2

Which TV channels are streaming of Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 2
Angola	Z Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Brazil	RedeTV!, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, RCTI+
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Kosovo	SuperSport 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Flow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, SportKlub 4
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN USA, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Daystar Pacific, Disney+, Onefootball, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia