RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer German Bundesliga
Result
2:2
21/02/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • : Bundesliga - Round 23
  • Referee: Brand B. (Ger)
RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.811.39
Ball possession
55%45%
Total shots
1411
Shots on target
35
Big chances
52
Corner kicks
62
Passes
84% (378/452)76% (279/365)
Yellow cards
34
Expected goals (xG)
1.811.39
xG on target (xGOT)
1.571.13
Total shots
1411
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
72
Blocked shots
44
Shots inside the box
1310
Shots outside the box
11
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
52
Corner kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
3925
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
04
Free kicks
1711
Passes
84% (378/452)76% (279/365)
Long passes
44% (24/54)48% (25/52)
Passes in final third
69% (66/96)58% (62/107)
Crosses
35% (6/17)40% (6/15)
Expected assists (xA)
3.051.56
Throw ins
1424
Fouls
1117
Tackles
54% (7/13)64% (9/14)
Duels won
5551
Clearances
3530
Interceptions
132
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
41
xGOT faced
1.131.57
Goals prevented
0.13-0.43

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 20', 1 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
  • 30', Romulo Cardoso 🟨,
  • 39', 2 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
  • 41', Lukeba C. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 50', 2 - 1, Romulo Cardoso (Own goal),
  • 54', Reggiani L. 🟨,
  • 64', Beier M. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
  • 64', Nmecha F. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
  • 65', Reggiani L. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
  • 65', Schlager X. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
  • 69', Ryerson J. 🟨,
  • 72', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
  • 76', Sabitzer M. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
  • 78', Silva F. 🟨,
  • 81', Gruda B. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
  • 81', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
  • 82', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
  • 90+2', Raum D. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Diomande Y. ↓, Finkgrafe M. ↑,
  • 90+5', 2 - 2, Silva F. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),

Chances of winning


RB Leipzig
46.1%		Draw
24.2%		Borussia Dortmund
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.3% 24.5% 33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6% 25.8% 31.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
  • Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
    •

    RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.09 ↓
    (2.25)    		 3.96 ↑
    (3.88)    		 3.18 ↑
    (2.87)    		 4.5%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    What is the prediction for RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund?
    • Users Predictions: 61 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 28 - 45.9%). Borussia D will win (votes: 20 - 32.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 21.3%).
      Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 33.4% – 58.4%.
    • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Borussia D (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
    • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
      • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • AH -0.5 - Borussia D (1.73) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • AH -0.25 - Borussia D (2.02) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • DNB - RB Leipzig (1.55) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
      • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • AH -1.5 - Borussia D (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • DC - RB Leipzig (1.35) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
      • AH +0.5 - Borussia D (3.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 10 - 41.7%). Borussia D (votes: 13 - 54.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.2%).
      •
    • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3.
    • Recent performances by RB Leipzig have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Borussia D is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Recently, Borussia D has had a series of home games.
    • RB Leipzig will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Muscle Injury) Sule N. (Thigh Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 35:34. (average 1.8:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund were as follows:
    04.10.2025 Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig 1:1
    15.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 2:0
    02.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig 2:1
    27.04.2024 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 4:1
    09.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig 2:3
    Latest results of RB Leipzig
    15.02.2026 RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg 2:2 ✺
    11.02.2026 Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig 2:0 ✺
    08.02.2026 Köln - RB Leipzig 1:2 ✺
    31.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺
    27.01.2026 St. Pauli - RB Leipzig 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Borussia Dortmund
    17.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta 2:0 ✺
    13.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    07.02.2026 Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund 1:2 ✺
    01.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Heidenheim 3:2 ✺
    28.01.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Inter Milan 0:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    Main
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich342851122:368689
    2Dortmund34227570:343673
    3RB Leipzig34205966:471965
    4Stuttgart34188871:492262
    5Hoffenheim34187965:521361
    6Bayer Leverkusen34178968:472159
    7Freiburg341381351:57-647
    8Eintracht Frankfurt3411111261:65-444
    9Augsburg341271545:61-1643
    10Mainz3410101444:53-940
    11Union Berlin341091544:58-1439
    12B. Monchengladbach349111442:53-1138
    13Hamburger SV349111440:54-1438
    14FC Koln347111649:63-1432
    15Werder Bremen34881837:60-2332
    16Wolfsburg34781945:69-2429
    17Heidenheim34682041:72-3126
    18St. Pauli34682029:60-3126

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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