St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

20/04/2025 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg).

: Bundesliga - Round 30
Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.74
Ball Possession
42%	58%
Total shots
10	6
Shots on target
5	4
Big Chances
4	2
Corner Kicks
4	4
Passes
81% (346/425)	86% (501/584)
Yellow Cards
1	4
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.74
xG on target (xGOT)
1.22	1.46
Total shots
10	6
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
3	2
Blocked Shots
2	0
Shots inside the Box
5	4
Shots outside the Box
5	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
4	2
Corner Kicks
4	4
Touches in opposition box
21	23
Through passes
100% (1/1)	0% (0/1)
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
12	12
Passes
81% (346/425)	86% (501/584)
Long passes
31% (17/55)	41% (16/39)
Passes in final third
73% (88/120)	75% (109/146)
Crosses
24% (4/17)	29% (5/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.16	1.57
Fouls
12	12
Tackles
33% (5/15)	57% (4/7)
Duels won
44	38
Clearances Total
24	34
Interceptions
6	2
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
3	4
xGOT faced
1.46	1.22
Goals prevented
0.46	0.20

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Schick P. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Metcalfe C. ↓, Weisshaupt N. ↑,
63', Hincapie P. 🟨,
64', Hradecky L. 🟨,
64', Frimpong J. 🟨,
66', Schick P. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
77', Tella N. 🟨,
78', 1 - 1, Boukhalfa C. ⚽,
84', Boukhalfa C. ↓, Wagner R. ↑,
89', Tapsoba E. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
89', Tella N. ↓, Boniface V. ↑,
90+1', Sinani D. ↓, Saad E. ↑,
90+1', Guilavogui M. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
90+1', Smith E. 🟨,

Chances of winning

St. Pauli
19.2%

Draw
25.2%

Bayer Leverkusen
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

24.4%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

23.8%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↓ (5.1)	3.81 ↓ (3.94)	1.73 ↑ (1.7)	3.9% (3.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen?

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 4 - 10.3%). Bayer will win (votes: 31 - 79.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 66.8% – 92.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 75%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayer Leverkusen will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
Bayer is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
Recent matches St. Pauli is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Bayer is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
St. Pauli could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Bayer is a favorite.
There will not play in St. Pauli: Burchert S. (Groin Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Sands J. (Broken Leg) Zoller S. (Thigh Injury)
There will not play in Bayer: Belocian J. (Knee Injury) Hermoso M. (Thigh Injury) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Last 2 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Bayer Leverkusen?

St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bayer Leverkusen won against St. Pauli?

Bayer Leverkusen has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:

07.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 2:1

Latest results of St. Pauli

12.04.2025 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:2 ✺

06.04.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:1 ✺

29.03.2025 Bayern Munich - St. Pauli 3:2 ✺

19.03.2025 Hertha Berlin - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺

14.03.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen

12.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin 0:0 ✺

05.04.2025 Heidenheim - Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 ✺

01.04.2025 Arminia Bielefeld - Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 ✺

28.03.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Bochum 3:1 ✺

11.03.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich 0:2 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	9:2	7	6
2	Eintracht Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	7:2	5	6
3	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	5:1	4	6
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	6:3	3	4
5	St. Pauli	2	1	1	0	5:3	2	4
6	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	4:2	2	4
7	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	5:4	1	3
8	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
9	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3
10	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	2:4	-2	3
11	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	2:6	-4	3
12	Bayer Leverkusen	2	0	1	1	4:5	-1	1
13	Mainz	2	0	1	1	1:2	-1	1
14	B. Monchengladbach	2	0	1	1	0:1	-1	1
15	Hamburger SV	2	0	1	1	0:2	-2	1
16	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	4:7	-3	1
17	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	1:5	-4	0
18	Freiburg	2	0	0	2	2:7	-5	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Angola	Z Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport+, V Sport Ultra
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free, New World TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	iNews, K-Vision, RCTI+, Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, SportKlub 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, Onefootball