St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer German Bundesliga St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen
Result
1:2
27/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Bundesliga - Round 5
  • Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)
St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.660.66
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
135
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
131
Passes
84% (374/447)85% (414/487)
Yellow Cards
35
Expected Goals (xG)
0.660.66
xG on target (xGOT)
1.290.90
Total shots
135
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
60
Blocked Shots
11
Shots inside the Box
74
Shots outside the Box
61
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
131
Touches in opposition box
187
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1113
Passes
84% (374/447)85% (414/487)
Long passes
40% (17/43)47% (26/55)
Passes in final third
70% (96/137)69% (54/78)
Crosses
13% (4/31)25% (1/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.670.61
Throw-ins
2515
Fouls
1311
Tackles
60% (9/15)71% (10/14)
Duels won
4044
Clearances
928
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
11
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.901.29
Goals prevented
-1.100.29

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 21', Quansah J. 🟨,
  • 25', 0 - 1, Tapsoba E. ,
  • 32', 1 - 1, Wahl H. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Andrich R. , Fernandez E. ,
  • 50', Fujita J. 🟨,
  • 56', Ben Seghir E. , Poku E. ,
  • 56', Tape A. , Lucas ,
  • 58', 1 - 2, Poku E. , Grimaldo A. (A),
  • 60', Lucas 🟨,
  • 68', Hountondji A. , Kaars M. ,
  • 68', Ritzka L. , Dzwigala A. ,
  • 75', Tillman M. , Hofmann J. ,
  • 80', Fujita J. , Metcalfe C. ,
  • 81', Pereira Lage M. , Afolayan O. ,
  • 86', Hjulmand K. 🟨,
  • 87', Saliakas M. , Ceesay A. ,
  • 87', Smith E. 🟨,
  • 89', Schick P. , Kofane C. M. ,
  • 90+2', Bade L. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Fernandez E. 🟨,
  • 90+8', Ceesay A. 🟨,
  • 90+9', Kofane C. M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


St. Pauli
30.2%
Draw
27.1%
Bayer Leverkusen
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
28.8% 25.5% 45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1% 26.1% 46.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
  • Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
  • St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.18
    (3.32)
    3.55
    (3.75)
    2.29
    (2.09)
    3.4%
    (4.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen?
  • Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 6 - 17.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 25 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 56.4%86.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayer Leverkusen will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Bayer could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Bayer: Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There are questionable in St. Pauli: Mets K. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bayer: Tella N. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).
    • Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
    20.04.2025 St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen 1:1
    07.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 2:1
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    19.09.2025 Stuttgart - St. Pauli 2:0
    14.09.2025 St. Pauli - Augsburg 2:1
    03.09.2025 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:1
    29.08.2025 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2
    Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich660025:32218
    2Dortmund642012:4814
    3RB Leipzig64118:8013
    4Stuttgart64028:6212
    5Bayer Leverkusen632112:8411
    6FC Koln631211:9210
    7Eintracht Frankfurt630317:1619
    8Freiburg62229:908
    9Hamburger SV62226:8-28
    10St. Pauli62138:9-17
    11Hoffenheim62139:12-37
    12Werder Bremen62139:14-57
    13Union Berlin62138:13-57
    14Augsburg620411:13-26
    15Wolfsburg61238:10-25
    16Mainz61145:10-54
    17B. Monchengladbach60335:12-73
    18Heidenheim61054:11-73

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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