Villarreal vs Athletic Bilbao: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Spanish LaLiga Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao
Result
1:0
27/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : LaLiga - Round 7
  • Referee: Sesma M. (Esp)
Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.061.46
Ball Possession
42%58%
Total shots
1416
Shots on target
54
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
65
Passes
81% (302/373)86% (434/506)
Yellow Cards
20
Expected Goals (xG)
1.061.46
xG on target (xGOT)
1.530.72
Total shots
1416
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
65
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
1010
Shots outside the Box
46
Hit the Woodwork
11
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
65
Touches in opposition box
2319
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
70
Free Kicks
1113
Passes
81% (302/373)86% (434/506)
Long passes
40% (19/47)45% (21/47)
Passes in final third
72% (82/114)73% (112/154)
Crosses
26% (5/19)10% (3/30)
Expected assists (xA)
0.990.68
Throw-ins
1725
Fouls
1311
Tackles
68% (15/22)67% (8/12)
Duels won
5138
Clearances
3425
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
22
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
44
xGOT faced
0.721.53
Goals prevented
0.720.53

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Akhomach I. , Buchanan T. ,
  • 57', Gomez U. , Navarro R. ,
  • 67', Ruiz de Galarreta I. , Vesga M. ,
  • 67', Guruzeta G. , Areso J. ,
  • 72', Partey T. , Parejo D. ,
  • 72', Solomon M. , Moleiro A. ,
  • 72', Mikautadze G. , Oluwaseyi T. ,
  • 75', Vesga M. , Rego A. ,
  • 75', Williams I. , Sannadi M. ,
  • 77', 1 - 0, Moleiro A. ,
  • 84', Buchanan T. 🟨,
  • 90', Pepe N. , Pedraza A. ,
  • 90+2', Parejo D. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Villarreal
63.8%
Draw
30.2%
Athletic Bilbao
6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.4% 28.3% 28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6% 28.8% 28.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villarreal's performance.
  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-21.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villarreal that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+22.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.83
    (2.23)
    4.13
    (3.42)
    24.01
    (3.43)
    -17.1%
    (3.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao?
  • Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Villarreal will win (votes: 24 - 53.3%). Athletic will win (votes: 7 - 15.6%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 31.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 38.7%67.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Villarreal (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Athletic (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 1.
    • In recent matches, Villarreal has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Athletic is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Recently, Villarreal has had a series of away games.
    • Recently, Athletic has had a series of home games.
    • Villarreal could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Muscle Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury) Moreno G. (Hamstring Injury) Navarro P. (International duty) Perez A. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berenguer A. (Toe Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)
    • There are questionable in Villarreal: Comesana S. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Villarreal won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    08.12.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 2:0
    14.04.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 1:1
    05.11.2023 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 2:3
    13.05.2023 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 5:1
    Latest results of Villarreal
    23.09.2025 Sevilla - Villarreal 1:2
    20.09.2025 Villarreal - Osasuna 2:1
    31.08.2025 Celta de Vigo - Villarreal 1:1
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Real Madrid870119:91021
    2Barcelona861122:91319
    3Villarreal851214:8616
    4Betis843113:8515
    5Atl. Madrid834115:10513
    6Sevilla841315:11413
    7Elche834111:9213
    8Ath Bilbao84139:9013
    9Espanyol833211:11012
    10Alaves83239:8111
    11Getafe83239:11-211
    12Osasuna83147:8-110
    13Levante822413:14-18
    14Rayo Vallecano82248:10-28
    15Valencia822410:14-48
    16Celta Vigo80627:10-36
    17R. Oviedo82064:14-106
    18Girona81345:17-126
    19Real Sociedad81257:12-55
    20Mallorca81257:13-65

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
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    czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
    denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play, TV2 Sport
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    maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 4
    mexicoMexicoSky Sport
    netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 2
    new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect, TVWan
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    polandPolandCANAL+ Sport
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    romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
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    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
    singaporeSingaporebeIN Sport 1
    slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
    sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 3
    south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
    south-americaSouth-americaDGO Latin America
    spainSpainDAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
    swedenSwedenTV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
    switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
    thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
    turkeyTurkeyS Sport, S Sport+
    ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
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