Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer UEFA Champions League Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal
Result
0:2
16/09/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Champions League - League phase - Round 1
  • Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)
Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.411.10
Ball Possession
38%62%
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
26
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
22
Passes
73% (223/304)83% (409/490)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
0.411.10
xG on target (xGOT)
0.271.03
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
26
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
51
Shots inside the Box
69
Shots outside the Box
52
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
22
Touches in opposition box
2425
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1518
Passes
73% (223/304)83% (409/490)
Long passes
34% (20/59)47% (24/51)
Passes in final third
59% (54/91)70% (72/103)
Crosses
23% (3/13)25% (4/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.370.76
Throw-ins
1816
Fouls
1815
Tackles
75% (12/16)75% (15/20)
Duels won
4261
Clearances
2224
Interceptions
82
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
1.030.27
Goals prevented
-0.970.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 7', Rice D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 61', Navarro R. , Gomez U. ,
  • 65', Gyökeres V. , Trossard L. ,
  • 68', Boiro A. , Berchiche Y. ,
  • 68', Sancet O. , Guruzeta G. ,
  • 71', Eze E. , Martinelli G. ,
  • 72', 0 - 1, Martinelli G. , Trossard L. (A),
  • 81', Gomez U. , Serrano N. ,
  • 81', Vesga M. , Rego A. ,
  • 85', Madueke N. 🟨,
  • 85', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
  • 87', 0 - 2, Trossard L. , Martinelli G. (A),
  • 90+1', Calafiori R. , Hincapie P. ,
  • 90+1', Madueke N. , Norgaard C. ,
  • 90+1', Zubimendi M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Athletic Bilbao
20.3%
Draw
27.8%
Arsenal
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
25.9% 27.8% 46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1% 26.9% 47.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.
  • Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
  • Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.56
    (3.7)
    3.47
    (3.46)
    1.88
    (2.08)
    4.1%
    (4.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal?
  • Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (98 of 112 users predict this - 87.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 81.38%93.63%. The data is statistically significant.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Arsenal will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Arsenal is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Arsenal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Athletic has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Arsenal is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Laporte A. (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Odegaard M. (Shoulder Injury) Saka B. (Thigh Injury) White B. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Arsenal: Norgaard C. (Injury) Saliba W. (Ankle Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal were as follows:
    09.08.2025 Arsenal - Athletic Bilbao 3:0
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    Latest results of Arsenal
    31.08.2025 Liverpool - Arsenal 1:0
    23.08.2025 Arsenal - Leeds United 5:0
    09.08.2025 Arsenal - Athletic Bilbao 3:0
    UEFA Champions League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich22008:266
    2Real Madrid22007:166
    3PSG22006:156
    4Inter22005:056
    5Arsenal22004:046
    6Qarabag22005:236
    7Dortmund21108:534
    8Manchester City21104:224
    9Tottenham21103:214
    10Atl. Madrid21017:433
    11Newcastle21015:233
    12Marseille21015:233
    13Club Brugge KV21015:323
    14Sporting CP21015:323
    15Eintracht Frankfurt21016:603
    16Barcelona21013:303
    17Liverpool21013:303
    18Chelsea21012:3-13
    19Napoli21012:3-13
    20Royale Union SG21013:5-23
    21Galatasaray21012:5-33
    22Atalanta21012:5-33
    23Juventus20206:602
    24Bodo/Glimt20204:402
    25Bayer Leverkusen20203:302
    26Villarreal20112:3-11
    27PSV20112:4-21
    28FC Copenhagen20112:4-21
    29Olympiacos Piraeus20110:2-21
    30Monaco20113:6-31
    31Slavia Prague20112:5-31
    32Pafos20111:5-41
    33Benfica20022:4-20
    34Ath Bilbao20021:6-50
    35Ajax20020:6-60
    36Kairat Almaty20021:9-80

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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