Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alavés: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

11/05/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao).

: LaLiga - Round 35
Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.19	0.78
Ball Possession
60%	40%
Total shots
11	4
Shots on target
3	1
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
9	2
Passes
82% (365/445)	61% (183/302)
Yellow Cards
1	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19	0.78
xG on target (xGOT)
0.79	0.67
Total shots
11	4
Shots on target
3	1
Shots off target
7	2
Blocked Shots
1	1
Shots inside the Box
7	3
Shots outside the Box
4	0
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
9	2
Touches in opposition box
15	11
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
12	17
Passes
82% (365/445)	61% (183/302)
Long passes
55% (31/56)	24% (16/68)
Passes in final third
71% (87/122)	36% (35/98)
Crosses
14% (4/28)	14% (2/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.66	0.16
Throw-ins
22	27
Fouls
17	12
Tackles
47% (8/17)	58% (15/26)
Duels won
67	64
Clearances
44	31
Interceptions
15	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	2
xGOT faced
0.67	0.79
Goals prevented
0.67	0.79

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Djalo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Djalo A. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
55', Olabarrieta A. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
67', Canales P. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Sanchez M. (Own goal),
72', Sanchez M. ↓, Tenaglia N. ↑,
72', Martinez T. ↓, Villalibre A. ↑,
77', Blanco A. ↓, Martin C. ↑,
87', Guridi J. ↓, Cabanes P. ↑,
87', Alena C. ↓, Protesoni C. ↑,
90+4', Guevara A. 🟨,
90+4', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
90+4', Sannadi M. ↓, Lekue I. ↑,

Chances of winning

Athletic Bilbao
45.5%

Draw
33%

Deportivo Alavés
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

28.1%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

27.8%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.8)	2.9 ↓ (3.43)	4.48 ↓ (5.17)	4% (4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés?

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (52 of 63 users predict this - 82.54%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.17% – 91.91%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Athletic Bilbao will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3.
Recent form of Athletic has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
In recent matches, Alavés has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Alavés may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Athletic could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Athletic: Berenguer A. (Yellow Cards) Gorosabel A. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Alavés: Abqar A. (Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Athletic: Prados Diaz B. (Knock) Sancet O. (Muscle Injury) Williams I. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Pelvis Injury)
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 1:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.3:0.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Bilbao won against Deportivo Alavés?

Athletic Bilbao has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Alavés won against Athletic Bilbao?

Deportivo Alavés has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés were as follows:

15.12.2024 Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao 1:1

16.03.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés 2:0

16.01.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés 2:0

22.09.2023 Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao 0:2

Latest results of Athletic Bilbao

08.05.2025 Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao 4:1 ✺

04.05.2025 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺

01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3 ✺

23.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas 1:0 ✺

20.04.2025 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Deportivo Alavés

03.05.2025 Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid 0:0 ✺

23.04.2025 Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad 1:0 ✺

20.04.2025 Sevilla - Deportivo Alavés 1:1 ✺

13.04.2025 Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Girona - Deportivo Alavés 0:1 ✺

Spanish LaLiga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Elche	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Atl. Madrid	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Mallorca	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Ath Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Betis	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Levante	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Girona	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	R. Oviedo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ LaLiga2

Which TV channels are streaming of Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	K-Sport 1, SuperSport 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, DSports 2
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, RCTI+, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	K Sport 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Plus, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
New-zealand	beIN Connect, TVWan
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium 2
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN 4
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar, Max
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, DSports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, DSports 2, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15, SCTV Online