River Plate vs Vélez Sársfield: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Argentinian Liga Profesional River Plate - Vélez Sársfield
Result
4:1
04/05/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 16
  • Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)
River Plate - Vélez Sársfield - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
Advertisement
Watch and bet River Plate - Vélez Sársfield live
  1. Sign in or Register (it's free) to watch and bet Live Stream*
  2. To place a bet while streaming, go to Live In-Play
  3. Prior to joining Bet365.com and funding your account in order to view this event, or any other particular event via Bet365.com live stream, you are strongly advised to check with Bet365.com if, depending on your place of residence, it is possible to view this live stream.

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.73
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
93
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
82% (438/534)76% (285/375)
Yellow Cards
35
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.73
xG on target (xGOT)
2.771.11
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
93
Shots off target
56
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
103
Shots outside the Box
77
Hit the Woodwork
21
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
208
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1815
Passes
82% (438/534)76% (285/375)
Long passes
54% (37/69)27% (12/45)
Passes in final third
73% (77/105)57% (50/87)
Crosses
27% (3/11)0% (0/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.710.59
Throw-ins
2422
Fouls
1518
Tackles
63% (10/16)45% (15/33)
Duels won
6168
Clearances
1822
Interceptions
1412
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
1.112.77
Goals prevented
0.11-1.23

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 1)
  • 14', 1 - 0, Driussi S. ,
  • 28', 2 - 0, Colidio F. , Fernandez N. (A),
  • 30', Gonzalez Pirez L. 🟨,
  • 32', Silvero T. 🟨,
  • 33', 3 - 0, Fernandez N. , Mastantuono F. (A),
  • 37', 3 - 1, Carrizo M. , Bouzat A. (A),
  • 43', Vazquez K. A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Vazquez K. A. , Baeza C. ,
  • 59', Giuliano Galoppo 🟨,
  • 61', Perez E. , Castano K. ,
  • 61', Giuliano Galoppo , Meza M. ,
  • 61', Driussi S. , Miguel Borja ,
  • 69', Carrizo M. , Machuca I. ,
  • 69', Pellegrini M. , Pizzini F. ,
  • 70', Mastantuono F. , Lanzini M. ,
  • 70', Colidio F. , Subiabre I. ,
  • 78', Baeza C. 🟨,
  • 84', Braian Romero , Santos M. ,
  • 90+1', Castano K. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Gomez V. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Gomez V. 🟨,
  • 90+10', 4 - 1, Miguel Borja (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


River Plate
58.3%
Draw
25%
Vélez Sársfield
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
69.5% 20.4% 10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.3% 19.6% 9.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that River Plate's form might have worsened.
  • Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+14%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • River Plate - Vélez Sársfield Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.63
    (1.35)
    3.8
    (4.57)
    5.67
    (9.33)
    5.4%
    (6.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for River Plate - Vélez Sársfield?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Vélez will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 4%71%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).
    • River Plate is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 1.
    • River Plate is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Vélez has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, River Plate is the clear favorite.
    • There will not play in River Plate: Beltran S. (Injury) Diaz P. (Muscle Injury) Martinez P. (Hamstring Injury) Ruberto A. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Vélez: Fernandez M. (Inactive) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Mammana E. (Hand Injury) Monzon F. (Knee Injury) Porcel M. (Inactive)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.7:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 2.7:0.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between River Plate - Vélez Sársfield were as follows:
    18.10.2024 River Plate - Vélez Sársfield 1:1
    04.02.2024 River Plate - Vélez Sársfield 5:0
    02.09.2023 Vélez Sársfield - River Plate 2:0
    29.05.2023 Vélez Sársfield - River Plate 2:2
    Latest results of River Plate
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barracas Central63219:7211
    2Huracan63125:6-110
    3Boca Juniors62317:349
    4Union de Santa Fe62317:349
    5Defensa y Justicia62316:429
    6Estudiantes L.P53027:619
    7Belgrano52215:238
    8Argentinos Jrs62226:428
    9Tigre62226:608
    10Central Cordoba51405:417
    11Banfield62137:10-37
    12Newells Old Boys61325:6-16
    13Ind. Rivadavia61236:8-25
    14Racing Club61144:9-54
    15Aldosivi50321:5-43


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate532011:3811
    2San Lorenzo63215:3211
    3Rosario Central62404:2210
    4Atl. Tucuman62318:539
    5Lanus53025:329
    6Velez Sarsfield52214:318
    7San Martin S.J62225:508
    8Dep. Riestra52125:507
    9Gimnasia L.P62134:5-17
    10Sarmiento Junin51315:6-16
    11Platense51314:5-16
    12Talleres Cordoba61233:7-45
    13Instituto61232:10-85
    14Godoy Cruz50324:7-33
    15Independiente50234:7-32

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

    Which TV channels are streaming of River Plate - Vélez Sársfield?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN Premium
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
    brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chileChileDisney+
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
    italyItalySport Italia, Sportitalia Plus
    mexicoMexicoDisney+
    north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
    peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
    portugalPortugalSport TV3
    serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
    south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
    turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
    uruguayUruguayDisney+
    usaUsaFanatiz
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter
    worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional
    X
    bet365
    advertisement
    LiveStream.Fan