New York City vs Toronto FC: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer MLS New York City - Toronto FC
Result
3:1
03/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : MLS
New York City - Toronto FC - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.381.40
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
56
Passes
83% (401/484)80% (310/386)
Yellow Cards
14
Expected Goals (xG)
1.381.40
xG on target (xGOT)
2.731.49
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
23
Shots inside the Box
88
Shots outside the Box
32
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
56
Touches in opposition box
2219
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1210
Passes
83% (401/484)80% (310/386)
Long passes
49% (25/51)47% (30/64)
Passes in final third
68% (69/101)62% (68/109)
Crosses
17% (1/6)17% (4/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.680.89
Throw-ins
2124
Fouls
1012
Tackles
61% (11/18)82% (18/22)
Duels won
4755
Clearances
3725
Interceptions
1010
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
1.492.73
Goals prevented
1.49-0.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 2', Long K. 🟨,
  • 19', Longstaff M. 🟨,
  • 20', 1 - 0, Wolf H. , Ilenic M. (A),
  • 25', Martinez A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 49', 2 - 0, Ilenic M. , Ojeda A. (A), O'Neill A. (A2)
  • 58', Petretta R. , Laryea R. ,
  • 58', Spicer T. , Kerr D. ,
  • 67', Dominguez M. 🟨,
  • 70', 2 - 1, Romero T. (Own goal),
  • 70', Risa B. , O'Toole K. ,
  • 70', Longstaff M. , Henry M. ,
  • 71', Henry M. 🟨,
  • 74', 3 - 1, O'Toole K. , Wolf H. (A), Moralez M. (A2)
  • 76', Ojeda A. , Fernandez J. ,
  • 84', Moralez M. , Shore J. ,
  • 84', Martinez A. , Bakrar M. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


New York City
59.9%
Draw
22.4%
Toronto FC
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.5% 21.6% 16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8% 21.2% 15.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • New York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • Toronto FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York City than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
  • New York City - Toronto FC Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.58
    (1.53)
    4.23
    (4.42)
    5.36
    (5.97)
    5.6%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for New York City - Toronto FC?
  • Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. NY City will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Toronto will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for NY City: 44.9%88.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. NY City (votes: 3 - 50%). Toronto (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • DC - Toronto (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 13).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY City won 5.
    • NY City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Toronto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • NY City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, NY City is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in NY City: Freese M. (International duty) Jones M. (Broken Leg) Parks K. (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Toronto: Flores D. (International duty) Franklin K. (Ankle Injury) Gomis N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Monlouis Z. (Lower-Body Injury)
    • There are questionable in NY City: Arroyave J. (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Toronto: Bernardeschi F. (Knock) Osorio J. (Lower-Body Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, NY City won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:30. (average 1.7:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, NY City won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 2.2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between New York City - Toronto FC were as follows:
    26.04.2025 Toronto FC - New York City 0:1
    11.05.2024 Toronto FC - New York City 2:3
    16.03.2024 New York City - Toronto FC 2:1
    24.09.2023 New York City - Toronto FC 3:0
    26.07.2023 New York City - Toronto FC 5:0
    Latest results of New York City
    Latest results of Toronto FC
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC ✔ 31176856:381857
    2Vancouver Whitecaps ✔ 30168657:322556
    3Minnesota United ✔ 31159751:361554
    4Los Angeles FC ✔ 29148757:372050
    5Seattle Sounders30129952:45745
    6Austin FC301281033:37-444
    7Portland Timbers3111101039:41-243
    8Colorado Rapids311161441:52-1139
    9FC Dallas309101145:49-437
    10Houston Dynamo31991340:49-936
    11San Jose Earthquakes31981456:58-235
    12Real Salt Lake301041632:45-1334
    13St. Louis City31771739:52-1328
    14Sporting Kansas City31761845:63-1827
    15Los Angeles Galaxy30491737:61-2421


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Philadelphia Union ✔ 31186750:331760
    2FC Cincinnati ✔ 31184947:39858
    3Inter Miami29167664:461855
    4Charlotte ✔ 311721251:42953
    5New York City ✔ 311651046:39753
    6Orlando City30149758:431551
    7Nashville SC311551152:381450
    8Columbus Crew311311751:47450
    9Chicago Fire301361157:53445
    10New York Red Bulls311271245:40543
    11New England Revolution31881539:45-632
    12Toronto FC305121330:37-727
    13Atlanta Utd305121337:55-1827
    14DC United315101629:58-2925
    15CF Montreal31591729:55-2624

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    San Diego FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Vancouver Whitecaps is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Minnesota United is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Los Angeles FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Philadelphia Union is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    FC Cincinnati is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Charlotte is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    New York City is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Which TV channels are streaming of New York City - Toronto FC?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    usaUsaMLS Season Pass
    worldWorldEA Sports FC
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