Toluca vs Necaxa: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Mexican Liga MX Toluca - Necaxa
Result
3:1
12/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga MX - Apertura - Round 1
Toluca - Necaxa - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.931.48
Ball Possession
56%44%
Total shots
2011
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
71
Corner Kicks
74
Passes
85% (412/484)84% (321/384)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
2.931.48
xG on target (xGOT)
2.301.73
Total shots
2011
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
95
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
146
Shots outside the Box
65
Hit the Woodwork
11
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
71
Corner Kicks
74
Touches in opposition box
2315
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1311
Passes
85% (412/484)84% (321/384)
Long passes
42% (18/43)51% (26/51)
Passes in final third
68% (73/107)73% (67/92)
Crosses
36% (5/14)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.791.14
Throw-ins
2122
Fouls
1113
Tackles
75% (12/16)68% (13/19)
Duels won
4636
Clearances
2516
Interceptions
810
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
34
xGOT faced
1.732.30
Goals prevented
0.73-0.70

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 8', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
  • 18', Gallardo J. 🟨,
  • 21', 0 - 1, Perez P. , Palavecino A. (A),
  • 27', 1 - 1, Ruiz M. , Vega A. (A),
  • 41', 2 - 1, Angulo J. , Ruiz M. (A),
  • 45+1', Ruiz M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 60', Perez P. , Rossano F. ,
  • 60', Jesus Alcantar , Rojas J. ,
  • 66', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. , Bruno Mendez ,
  • 66', Paulinho , Morales R. ,
  • 71', Monreal R. , Sanchez R. ,
  • 75', Angulo J. , Castro N. ,
  • 83', Rodriguez I. , Andrade A. ,
  • 83', Calderon C. , Badaloni T. ,
  • 88', De Buen D. 🟨,
  • 89', Vega A. , Helinho ,
  • 90+1', 3 - 1, Helinho , Castro N. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
59.2%
Draw
22.6%
Necaxa
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57% 23% 20%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
  • Toluca - Necaxa Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.59
    (1.66)
    4.19
    (4.11)
    5.08
    (4.72)
    6.5%
    (5.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - Necaxa?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Toluca will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 59.78%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
    • In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Toluca: Lopez P. (Finger Injury)
    • There will not play in Necaxa: Oliveros A. (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Necaxa: Perez P. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:22. (average 1.7:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:8. (average 1.9:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Necaxa were as follows:
    08.03.2025 Toluca - Necaxa 5:2
    27.10.2024 Necaxa - Toluca 1:3
    10.02.2024 Necaxa - Toluca 3:3
    02.07.2023 Toluca - Necaxa 0:0
    26.12.2022 Toluca - Necaxa 1:0
    Latest results of Toluca
    25.05.2025 Toluca - Club América 2:0
    22.05.2025 Club América - Toluca 0:0
    17.05.2025 Toluca - Tigres UANL 3:0
    14.05.2025 Tigres UANL - Toluca 1:1
    10.05.2025 Toluca - Monterrey 2:1
    Latest results of Necaxa
    11.05.2025 Tigres UANL - Necaxa 2:2
    08.05.2025 Necaxa - Tigres UANL 0:0
    18.04.2025 Puebla - Necaxa 0:1
    15.04.2025 Juárez - Necaxa 2:2
    11.04.2025 Necaxa - Pachuca 3:5
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Pachuca33007:259
    2Toluca320110:736
    3Tigres UANL22005:326
    4Monterrey32014:406
    5Cruz Azul31207:435
    6Club America31205:325
    7Necaxa31115:504
    8Mazatlan FC31112:204
    9Atlas31117:8-14
    10Club Tijuana31113:4-14
    11Santos Laguna31025:503
    12Guadalajara Chivas21014:403
    13Atl. San Luis31024:5-13
    14Puebla31024:5-13
    15UNAM Pumas31024:6-23
    16Club Leon31022:5-33
    17Juarez30212:3-12
    18Queretaro30031:6-50

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
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    Which TV channels are streaming of Toluca - Necaxa?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    mexicoMexicoCanal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
    south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
    worldWorldVIX App
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