Stuttgart vs St. Pauli: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

19/09/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

MHPArena (Stuttgart).

: Bundesliga - Round 4
Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.71	1.17
Ball Possession
54%	46%
Total shots
17	9
Shots on target
8	2
Big Chances
5	2
Corner Kicks
8	4
Passes
87% (454/522)	77% (337/440)
Yellow Cards
0	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.71	1.17
xG on target (xGOT)
3.12	0.71
Total shots
17	9
Shots on target
8	2
Shots off target
3	2
Blocked Shots
6	5
Shots inside the Box
11	7
Shots outside the Box
6	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
5	2
Corner Kicks
8	4
Touches in opposition box
24	14
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
15	13
Passes
87% (454/522)	77% (337/440)
Long passes
44% (20/45)	32% (19/59)
Passes in final third
71% (85/119)	49% (40/81)
Crosses
25% (3/12)	11% (2/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.14	0.72
Throw-ins
23	24
Fouls
13	15
Tackles
50% (7/14)	63% (10/16)
Duels won
57	42
Clearances
24	19
Interceptions
16	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	6
xGOT faced
0.71	3.12
Goals prevented
0.71	1.12

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Stiller A. (Pen),
40', Sands J. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Demirovic E. ⚽, Leweling J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 2 - 0, El Khannouss B. ⚽, Demirovic E. (A),
62', Hountondji A. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
62', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
67', Afolayan O. 🟨,
73', Tomas T. ↓, Fuhrich C. ↑,
74', Sinani D. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
82', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
82', Saliakas M. ↓, Pyrka A. ↑,
85', Demirovic E. ↓, Bouanani B. ↑,
85', Mittelstadt M. ↓, Hendriks R. ↑,
90+2', Andres C. ↓, Karazor A. ↑,
90+2', Leweling J. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,

Chances of winning

Stuttgart
74.5%

Draw
20%

St. Pauli
5.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

23.1%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

25.6%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stuttgart's performance.

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and St. Pauli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stuttgart that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that St. Pauli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Stuttgart - St. Pauli Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.66)	7.02 ↑ (4.12)	27.95 ↑ (4.88)	-22.6% (5.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Stuttgart - St. Pauli?

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Stuttgart will win (votes: 30 - 68.2%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 9 - 20.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stuttgart: 54.4% – 82%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 4 - 66.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.
Stuttgart has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
St. Pauli is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Recently, Stuttgart has had a series of away games.
In this match, Stuttgart is considered a favorite.
There will not play in Stuttgart: Bredlow F. (Knee Injury) Diehl J. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Stergiou L. (Ankle Injury) Undav D. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in St. Pauli: Ceesay A. (Foot Injury) Irvine J. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
There are questionable in Stuttgart: Jaquez L. (Broken nose)
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.4:0.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Stuttgart won against St. Pauli?

Stuttgart has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Stuttgart?

St. Pauli has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Stuttgart - St. Pauli were as follows:

03.05.2025 St. Pauli - Stuttgart 0:1

21.12.2024 Stuttgart - St. Pauli 0:1

Latest results of Stuttgart

13.09.2025 Freiburg - Stuttgart 3:1 ✺

03.09.2025 Sonnenhof Großaspach - Stuttgart 2:6 ✺

30.08.2025 Stuttgart - Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:0 ✺

26.08.2025 Eintracht Braunschweig - Stuttgart 4:5 ✺

23.08.2025 Union Berlin - Stuttgart 2:1 ✺

Latest results of St. Pauli

14.09.2025 St. Pauli - Augsburg 2:1 ✺

03.09.2025 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺

29.08.2025 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2 ✺

23.08.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 3:3 ✺

16.08.2025 Eintracht Norderstedt - St. Pauli 0:1 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	18:3	15	12
2	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	6:7	-1	9
3	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	8:3	5	7
4	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	9:7	2	7
5	St. Pauli	4	2	1	1	7:6	1	7
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	8:5	3	6
7	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	8:8	0	6
8	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	5:5	0	6
9	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	8:10	-2	6
10	Wolfsburg	3	1	2	0	7:5	2	5
11	Bayer Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	7:6	1	4
12	Mainz	4	1	1	2	5:4	1	4
13	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	8:10	-2	4
14	Hamburger SV	4	1	1	2	2:8	-6	4
15	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3
16	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	4:8	-4	3
17	B. Monchengladbach	3	0	1	2	0:5	-5	1
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	2:9	-7	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of Stuttgart - St. Pauli?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport 2, Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, SportKlub 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball