Result
3:0
20/09/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- : Bundesliga - Round 7
- Referee: Simsek I. (Aut)
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Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.59 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (358/440) | 73% (251/343) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.59 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 0.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (358/440) | 73% (251/343) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (20/53) | 47% (29/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (46/81) | 58% (78/134) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.55 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (19/24) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 41 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.05 | 2.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.05 | -0.37 |
| Goal kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 52', Redzic D. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
- 53', Konate K. ↓, Vertessen Y. ↑,
- 53', Baidoo E. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
- 58', Kayombo A. ↓, Diakite O. ↑,
- 66', Barry A. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
- 66', Matoshi V. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
- 66', Seidl S. ↓, Kiteishvili O. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 0, Veratschnig N. ⚽, Mazurek B. (A),
- 72', Heil J. 🟨,
- 76', 2 - 0, Boma K. ⚽, Schmid D. (A),
- 76', Heil J. 🟨,
- 79', Koller P. 🟨,
- 83', 3 - 0, Camara A. ⚽, Kitano S. (A),
- 84', Malic A. ↓, Petrovic P. ↑,
- 84', Weinhandl L. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
- 86', Mazurek B. ↓, Kratzig F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Red Bull Salzburg
62.3% | Draw
19.8% | Sturm Graz
17.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Red Bull Salzburg's performance.Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.53 ↓
(1.61) |
4.75 ↑
(4.1) |
5.27 ↑
(4.33) |
5.3%
(9.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 0.75
What is the prediction for Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz?
- Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Salzburg (votes: 1 - 100%).
- Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
- AH -0.75 - Salzburg (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Red Bull Salzburg will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Salzburg (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 4th in the Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Salzburg won 0.
- Salzburg is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
- Sturm has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
- Sturm could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
- In this matchup, Salzburg is considered the favorite to take the win.
- Confirmed absences for Salzburg: Diabate S.
(Injury)
Moser J.
(Muscle Injury)
Omoregie J.
(Achilles Tendon Injury).
- Confirmed absences for Sturm: Jatta S.
(Inactive)
Soglo E.
(Muscle Injury).
- Doubtful / questionable for Salzburg: Diakite G.
(Inactive).
- Our forecast points to a victory for Salzburg in today's match, at odds of 1.63.
- In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Salzburg has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:33 (averaging 1.3:1.7 goals per game).
- Specifically in home fixtures for Salzburg against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:16 goals (averaging 1.4:1.5 per game).
How many head-to-head matches has Red Bull Salzburg won against Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg has won 4 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz has won 6 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz were as follows:
03.05.2026
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
1:1
20.03.2026
Sturm Graz
-
Red Bull Salzburg
1:1
09.11.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Red Bull Salzburg
1:1
20.09.2025
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
0:2
09.05.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Red Bull Salzburg
4:2
Latest results of Red Bull Salzburg
Latest results of Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga Table
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | SK Rapid | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21:7 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18:4 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | LASK | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19:7 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:9 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 |
| 7 | Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | A. Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | Tirol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:14 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:13 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5:12 | -7 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )
Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )
Which TV channels are streaming of Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Croatia | SportKlub 8 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Russia | TV Start, TV Start Triumph |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 3 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 6 |
 World | OneFootball TV |
