São Paulo vs Corinthians: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Corinthians
Result
2:0
19/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 15
  • Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
São Paulo - Corinthians - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.611.60
Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
169
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
65
Passes
83% (367/442)87% (416/478)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
1.611.60
xG on target (xGOT)
1.171.22
Total shots
169
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
74
Blocked Shots
62
Shots inside the Box
106
Shots outside the Box
63
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
65
Touches in opposition box
259
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
918
Passes
83% (367/442)87% (416/478)
Long passes
43% (23/53)52% (24/46)
Passes in final third
68% (67/98)75% (76/101)
Crosses
13% (2/16)23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.410.58
Throw-ins
1619
Fouls
189
Tackles
73% (16/22)100% (4/4)
Duels won
3535
Clearances
2222
Interceptions
613
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
1.221.17
Goals prevented
1.22-0.83

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 16', Oscar , Alisson ,
  • 32', 1 - 0, Luciano , Andre Silva (A),
  • 35', 2 - 0, Luciano , Wendell (A),
  • 37', Alisson 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Depay M. , Gui Negao ,
  • 46', Martinez J. , Raniele ,
  • 46', Torres F. , Leo Mana ,
  • 53', Raniele 🟨,
  • 66', Matheus Bidu , Angileri F. ,
  • 67', Carrillo A. , Talles Magno ,
  • 72', Bobadilla D. , Pablo Maia ,
  • 72', Andre Silva , Ferreira ,
  • 79', Luciano , Tapia G. ,
  • 79', Franco A. , Sabino ,
  • 83', Garro R. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Tapia G. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
40.6%
Draw
33.4%
Corinthians
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.5% 30.9% 28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9% 32.7% 27%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
  • Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+1%)
  • São Paulo - Corinthians Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.36
    (2.33)
    2.84
    (3.05)
    3.62
    (3.3)
    5.2%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Corinthians?
  • Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Corinthians will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 43.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.5%68.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4.
    • São Paulo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Corinthians's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • São Paulo could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Corinthians: Gustavo Henrique (Inactive) Hugo (Inactive) Matheuzinho (Yellow Cards) Ryan (Inactive) Yuri Alberto (Back Injury)
    • There are questionable in Corinthians: Maycon (Injury) Talles Magno (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:18. (average 1.4:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:8. (average 1.6:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Corinthians were as follows:
    26.01.2025 São Paulo - Corinthians 3:1
    29.09.2024 São Paulo - Corinthians 3:1
    16.06.2024 Corinthians - São Paulo 2:2
    30.01.2024 Corinthians - São Paulo 1:2
    30.09.2023 São Paulo - Corinthians 2:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Latest results of Corinthians
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ19134236:92743
    2Cruzeiro21125434:151941
    3Palmeiras18123324:15939
    4Bahia1896325:17833
    5Bragantino2193926:28-230
    6Botafogo RJ1885523:111229
    7Mirassol1878329:191029
    8Sao Paulo2078524:22229
    9Fluminense1983825:28-327
    10Ceara2075819:19026
    11Atletico-MG1866620:21-124
    12Internacional2066823:28-524
    13Gremio2066819:25-624
    14Corinthians2057819:25-622
    15Santos19631020:29-921
    16Vasco19541025:26-119
    17Vitoria20310718:24-619
    18Juventude19531117:38-2118
    19Fortaleza19361019:31-1215
    20Sport Recife18171012:27-1510

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of São Paulo - Corinthians?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
    germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
    portugalPortugalCanal 11
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
    switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
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