Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

12/05/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach (Niepołomice).

: Ekstraklasa - Round 32
Referee: Kwiatkowski T. (Pol)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.09	3.01
Ball Possession
42%	58%
Total shots
20	22
Shots on target
4	9
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
6	6
Passes
82% (261/318)	84% (396/470)
Yellow Cards
3	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09	3.01
xG on target (xGOT)
0.23	4.57
Total shots
20	22
Shots on target
4	9
Shots off target
8	5
Blocked Shots
8	8
Shots inside the Box
10	15
Shots outside the Box
10	7
Hit the Woodwork
2	1
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
6	6
Touches in opposition box
32	40
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
3	2
Free Kicks
8	16
Passes
82% (261/318)	84% (396/470)
Long passes
62% (26/42)	55% (33/60)
Passes in final third
69% (84/121)	80% (108/135)
Crosses
11% (3/28)	37% (7/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.62	1.67
Throw-ins
13	19
Fouls
16	8
Tackles
81% (13/16)	73% (11/15)
Duels won
45	50
Clearances
30	45
Interceptions
10	3
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	2
xGOT faced
4.57	0.23
Goals prevented
1.57	-0.77

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 3)
5', 0 - 1, Guillaumier M. ⚽, Matras M. (A),
21', Stepien K. 🟨,
25', 0 - 2, Matras M. ⚽,
37', 0 - 3, Wlazlo P. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Serafin J. ↓, Tomalski H. ↑,
46', Stepien K. ↓, Cholewiak M. ↑,
46', Yakuba R. ↓, Stec J. ↑,
51', 1 - 3, Barkovsky G. ⚽,
53', Stec J. 🟨,
56', Abramowicz D. 🟨,
59', Knap K. 🟨,
67', Siplak M. ↓, Revenco I. ↑,
70', 2 - 3, Wlazlo P. (Own goal),
71', Gerbowski F. ↓, Krykun S. ↑,
88', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
88', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
90', Klimek A. ↓, Radecki M. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Puszcza Niepołomice
36.5%

Draw
28.3%

Stal Mielec
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

28.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

29.9%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.44)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	2.66 ↓ (2.95)	6.2% (5.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec?

The most likely score is 1:1.

Preview Facts

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puszcza won 1.
Both teams are currently in poor form.
Stal Mielec may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Puszcza: Kosidis M. (Inactive) Zhukov G. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Cavaleiro I. (Injury)
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Puszcza won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.6:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Puszcza won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Puszcza Niepołomice won against Stal Mielec?

Puszcza Niepołomice has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Stal Mielec won against Puszcza Niepołomice?

Stal Mielec has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec were as follows:

10.11.2024 Stal Mielec - Puszcza Niepołomice 2:0

09.02.2024 Stal Mielec - Puszcza Niepołomice 2:1

07.08.2023 Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec 1:0

Latest results of Puszcza Niepołomice

03.05.2025 Lech Poznań - Puszcza Niepołomice 8:1 ✺

25.04.2025 Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin 4:5 ✺

21.04.2025 Puszcza Niepołomice - Radomiak Radom 2:2 ✺

12.04.2025 GKS Katowice - Puszcza Niepołomice 3:1 ✺

07.04.2025 Puszcza Niepołomice - Raków Częstochowa 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Stal Mielec

03.05.2025 Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa 0:2 ✺

28.04.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec 2:2 ✺

22.04.2025 Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze 0:0 ✺

14.04.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec 3:2 ✺

04.04.2025 Stal Mielec - Cracovia 1:1 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2024/25

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	32	21	3	8	65:29	36	66
2	Rakow	32	19	8	5	48:21	27	65
3	Jagiellonia	32	17	8	7	54:40	14	59
4	Pogon Szczecin	32	17	5	10	55:36	19	56
5	Legia	32	15	8	9	57:40	17	53
6	Gornik Zabrze	32	13	7	12	42:36	6	46
7	GKS Katowice	32	13	6	13	44:43	1	45
8	Cracovia	32	12	9	11	53:51	2	45
9	Korona Kielce	32	11	10	11	35:43	-8	43
10	Motor Lublin	32	12	7	13	44:57	-13	43
11	Piast Gliwice	32	10	12	10	35:35	0	42
12	Radomiak Radom	32	11	7	14	44:47	-3	40
13	Widzew Lodz	32	10	7	15	35:47	-12	37
14	Lechia Gdansk	32	10	6	16	39:53	-14	36
15	Zaglebie	32	10	6	16	32:48	-16	36
16	Stal Mielec ✔	32	7	8	17	35:52	-17	29
17	Slask Wroclaw ✔	32	6	10	16	36:51	-15	28
18	Puszcza ✔	32	6	9	17	36:60	-24	27

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1

Clinched Spots for Teams

Stal Mielec is Relegated to Division 1
Slask Wroclaw is Relegated to Division 1
Puszcza is Relegated to Division 1

Which TV channels are streaming of Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2, Arena Sport 8
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball