Carlisle United vs Port Vale: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Two Carlisle United - Port Vale
Result
3:2
18/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : League Two - Round 43
  • Referee: Woods M. (Eng)
Carlisle United - Port Vale - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.042.94
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
1614
Shots on target
46
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
45
Passes
71% (251/356)61% (177/292)
Yellow Cards
61
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
1.042.94
xG on target (xGOT)
1.753.12
Total shots
1614
Shots on target
46
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
65
Shots inside the Box
1010
Shots outside the Box
64
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
11
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
45
Touches in opposition box
2633
Offsides
06
Free Kicks
1014
Passes
71% (251/356)61% (177/292)
Long passes
31% (25/80)34% (27/79)
Passes in final third
64% (99/154)47% (48/103)
Crosses
24% (6/25)24% (5/21)
Expected assists (xA)
1.060.96
Fouls
1410
Tackles
64% (9/14)44% (7/16)
Duels won
5383
Clearances Total
5043
Interceptions
510
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
41
xGOT faced
3.121.75
Goals prevented
1.12-1.25

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 36', 1 - 0, Kelly G. , Fusire S. (A),
  • 43', 2 - 0, Dennis M. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Walters R. , Byers G. ,
  • 46', Shorrock J. , Hart S. ,
  • 49', 3 - 0, Hayden A. ,
  • 61', 3 - 1, Stockley J. , Garrity B. (A),
  • 68', Byers G. 🟨,
  • 70', 3 - 2, Hart S. ,
  • 77', Garrity B. , Curtis R. ,
  • 79', Wearne S. 🟨,
  • 84', Fusire S. , Guy C. ,
  • 85', Dennis M. 🟨,
  • 85', Dennis M. , Hugill J. ,
  • 86', Hayden A. 🟨,
  • 87', Hall C. , Richards R. ,
  • 90', Wearne S. , Vela J. ,
  • 90+2', Thomas T. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Tolaj L. (Pen),
  • 90+4', Dennis M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Barclay B. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Carlisle United
24.6%
Draw
27.2%
Port Vale
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.1% 28.2% 38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2% 28.3% 38.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.
  • Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Port Vale's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-9.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Port Vale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Carlisle United - Port Vale Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.82
    (2.82)
    3.46
    (3.31)
    1.95
    (2.41)
    6.4%
    (7.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Port Vale?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Port Vale (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Port Vale will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 44.94%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.
    • Recent matches Carlisle is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Port Vale is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Port Vale will have a poor advantage in this game.
    • There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A. (Injury) Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)
    • There will not play in Port Vale: Heneghan B. (Inactive) Kyle John (Inactive) Sang T. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Port Vale: Headley J. (Muscle Injury)
    • Last 16 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 14:16 (average 0.9:1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:9 (average 1.1:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Port Vale were as follows:
    21.12.2024 Port Vale - Carlisle United 0:0
    01.01.2024 Carlisle United - Port Vale 2:1
    26.08.2023 Port Vale - Carlisle United 1:0
    Latest results of Carlisle United
    Latest results of Port Vale
    12.04.2025 Port Vale - Bromley 5:0
    05.04.2025 Walsall - Port Vale 2:3
    01.04.2025 Port Vale - Bradford City 2:0
    25.03.2025 Port Vale - Barrow 0:1
    English League Two Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Crewe22005:146
    2Fleetwood22004:136
    3Chesterfield22003:036
    4Tranmere21105:144
    5Grimsby21106:334
    6MK Dons21102:024
    7Bromley21102:024
    8Harrogate21104:314
    9Newport21103:214
    10Gillingham21102:114
    11Swindon21014:403
    12Cambridge Utd21013:303
    13Walsall21012:203
    14Salford21013:4-13
    15Colchester20202:202
    16Oldham20201:102
    17Notts Co20112:3-11
    18Accrington20111:3-21
    19Shrewsbury20110:4-41
    20Bristol Rovers20021:3-20
    21Cheltenham20020:3-30
    22Barrow20020:3-30
    23Crawley20021:5-40
    24Barnet20020:4-40

          Promotion ~ League Two
          Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ National League

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