Palmeiras vs São Paulo: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Palmeiras - São Paulo
Result
1:0
11/05/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 8
Palmeiras - São Paulo - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.31
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
176
Shots on target
42
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
101
Passes
80% (373/464)76% (277/364)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.31
xG on target (xGOT)
1.800.88
Total shots
176
Shots on target
42
Shots off target
102
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
91
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
101
Touches in opposition box
3010
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1612
Passes
80% (373/464)76% (277/364)
Long passes
48% (26/54)27% (16/59)
Passes in final third
64% (76/118)62% (38/61)
Crosses
28% (9/32)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.260.36
Throw-ins
2015
Fouls
1216
Tackles
60% (12/20)66% (19/29)
Duels won
6369
Clearances
1838
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
0.881.80
Goals prevented
0.880.80

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 26', Wendell , Diaz E. ,
  • 31', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 55', Matheus Alves , Oscar ,
  • 55', Soares C. , Lucas Ferreira ,
  • 61', Rios R. , Felipe Anderson ,
  • 62', Allan , Lucas Evangelista ,
  • 62', Abel Ferreira 🟥,
  • 66', Paulinho , Mauricio ,
  • 75', Ferreira , Luciano ,
  • 75', Marcos Antonio , Pablo Maia ,
  • 79', Moreno A. , Raphael Veiga ,
  • 79', Estevao , Vitor Roque ,
  • 85', Piquerez J. 🟨,
  • 90+7', 1 - 0, Vitor Roque ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
54.1%
Draw
28.2%
São Paulo
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.9% 27.6% 19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9% 27.1% 19.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
  • Palmeiras - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.76
    (1.79)
    3.35
    (3.44)
    5.33
    (4.84)
    5.5%
    (5.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Palmeiras - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 60.7%93.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
    • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
    • Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Felipe Anderson (Inactive) Micael (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista (Injury)
    • We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.3:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 1.5:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - São Paulo were as follows:
    10.03.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 1:0
    16.02.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 0:0
    18.08.2024 Palmeiras - São Paulo 2:1
    29.04.2024 São Paulo - Palmeiras 0:0
    03.03.2024 São Paulo - Palmeiras 1:1
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    07.05.2025 Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras 0:2
    04.05.2025 Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras 0:1
    30.04.2025 Ceará - Palmeiras 0:1
    27.04.2025 Palmeiras - Bahia 0:1
    24.04.2025 Bolívar - Palmeiras 2:3
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ1173124:42024
    2Cruzeiro1273217:8924
    3Bragantino1272314:11323
    4Palmeiras1171312:8422
    5Bahia1263314:11321
    6Fluminense1162315:12320
    7Atletico-MG1255213:10320
    8Botafogo RJ1153314:7718
    9Mirassol1145217:12517
    10Corinthians1244413:15-216
    11Gremio1244412:15-316
    12Ceara1143413:11215
    13Vasco1241714:16-213
    14Sao Paulo1226410:14-412
    15Santos1232711:14-311
    16Vitoria1225510:14-411
    17Internacional1225512:18-611
    18Fortaleza1224612:18-610
    19Juventude112278:24-168
    20Sport Recife110385:18-133

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

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