Palmeiras vs Grêmio: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Brazilian Serie A Palmeiras - Grêmio
Result
1:0
26/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 17
  • Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
Palmeiras - Grêmio - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.570.39
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
23
Passes
88% (494/564)81% (293/362)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
0.570.39
xG on target (xGOT)
0.660.65
Total shots
105
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
63
Shots outside the Box
42
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
23
Touches in opposition box
159
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
2020
Passes
88% (494/564)81% (293/362)
Long passes
51% (27/53)39% (21/54)
Passes in final third
76% (110/144)51% (29/57)
Crosses
30% (3/10)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.570.51
Throw-ins
2117
Fouls
2020
Tackles
68% (13/19)61% (11/18)
Duels won
5559
Clearances
1723
Interceptions
610
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
0.650.66
Goals prevented
0.65-0.34

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 3', 1 - 0, Torres F. , Mauricio (A),
  • 26', Pavon C. 🟨,
  • 34', Martinez E. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Alex Santana , Camilo Reijers ,
  • 58', Luighi , Raphael Veiga ,
  • 58', Mauricio , Sosa R. ,
  • 58', Vitor Roque , Flaco Lopez ,
  • 69', Pavon C. , Alysson ,
  • 70', Lucas Evangelista , Moreno A. ,
  • 70', Olivera C. , Aravena A. ,
  • 77', Freitas dos Santos R. , Edenilson ,
  • 82', Torres F. , Ramon ,
  • 83', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
  • 87', Dodi , Jardiel ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
70.5%
Draw
19.5%
Grêmio
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.4% 23.6% 14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7% 23.1% 13.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palmeiras that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
  • Palmeiras - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.37
    (1.51)
    5.05
    (4)
    10.18
    (6.74)
    2.9%
    (5.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 47.7%95.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 14).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.
    • Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Allan (Red Card) Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Murilo (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Joao Pedro (Ankle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson (Injury) Figueiredo (Inactive) Paulinho (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Villasanti M. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:16. (average 1.6:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Grêmio were as follows:
    08.11.2024 Palmeiras - Grêmio 1:0
    04.07.2024 Grêmio - Palmeiras 2:2
    21.09.2023 Grêmio - Palmeiras 1:0
    10.05.2023 Palmeiras - Grêmio 4:1
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    23.07.2025 Fluminense - Palmeiras 1:2
    16.07.2025 Palmeiras - Mirassol 1:1
    13.07.2025 Santos - Palmeiras Postponed
    04.07.2025 Palmeiras - Chelsea 1:2
    Latest results of Grêmio
    24.07.2025 Grêmio - Botafogo RJ Postponed
    23.07.2025 Grêmio - Alianza Lima 1:1
    19.07.2025 Vasco da Gama - Grêmio 1:1
    16.07.2025 Alianza Lima - Grêmio 2:0
    13.07.2025 Cruzeiro - Grêmio 4:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ16113230:62436
    2Cruzeiro17104328:111734
    3Palmeiras15102319:12732
    4Bahia1584320:13728
    5Bragantino1783620:20027
    6Botafogo RJ1575318:81026
    7Mirassol1567224:141025
    8Sao Paulo1757518:19-122
    9Ceara1663716:16021
    10Internacional1656517:20-321
    11Corinthians1756616:20-421
    12Fluminense1562717:20-320
    13Atletico-MG1555516:16020
    14Gremio1545614:21-717
    15Vitoria1738614:18-417
    16Vasco1543816:20-415
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1535716:21-514
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1505109:25-165

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Palmeiras - Grêmio?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
    germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
    portugalPortugalCanal 11
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
    switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
    turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 2
    usaUsaFanatiz
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