Cerro Porteño vs Palmeiras: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Copa Libertadores
Soccer Copa Libertadores Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras
Result
0:2
07/05/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4
Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.691.63
Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
179
Shots on target
26
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
85
Passes
76% (255/335)81% (333/412)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
0.691.63
xG on target (xGOT)
0.131.80
Total shots
179
Shots on target
26
Shots off target
102
Blocked Shots
51
Shots inside the Box
86
Shots outside the Box
93
Hit the Woodwork
21
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
85
Touches in opposition box
2018
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
03
Free Kicks
1310
Passes
76% (255/335)81% (333/412)
Long passes
51% (27/53)42% (20/48)
Passes in final third
56% (54/96)58% (56/96)
Crosses
19% (4/21)25% (4/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.560.43
Throw-ins
1921
Fouls
1013
Tackles
57% (12/21)64% (14/22)
Duels won
5670
Clearances
2430
Interceptions
119
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
1.800.13
Goals prevented
-0.200.13

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 21', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
  • 23', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
  • 41', 0 - 1, Estevao ⚽, Lucas Evangelista (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Bruno Fuchs ↓, Murilo ↑,
  • 46', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Rios R. ↑,
  • 63', Torres F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
  • 63', Allan ↓, Mayke ↑,
  • 65', Rivas L. ↓, Dominguez C. ↑,
  • 74', Rios R. 🟨,
  • 75', Iturbe J. ↓, Aguayo G. ↑,
  • 75', Carrizo F. ↓, Araujo S. ↑,
  • 82', Viera W. 🟨,
  • 82', Benitez A. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
  • 82', Piris R. ↓, Valdez B. ↑,
  • 83', Estevao ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
  • 90+4', 0 - 2, Vitor Roque ⚽, Paulinho (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cerro Porteño
23.6%		Draw
28.8%		Palmeiras
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
21.5% 28.2% 50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9% 27.4% 51.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cerro Porteño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
    •

    Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.01 ↓
    (4.41)    		 3.27 ↓
    (3.35)    		 1.98 ↑
    (1.88)    		 6%
    (5.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    •
    What is the prediction for Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 54% – 99.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Cerro Porteño (votes: 1 - 50%). Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 0.
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Cerro Porteño: Gimenez G. (Inactive) Melgarejo R. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Marcos Rocha (Calf Injury) Micael (Ankle Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:16. (average 0.3:2.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Porteño won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:8. (average 0:2.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras were as follows:
    09.04.2025 Palmeiras - Cerro Porteño 1:0
    24.05.2023 Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras 0:3
    20.04.2023 Palmeiras - Cerro Porteño 2:1
    Latest results of Cerro Porteño
    03.05.2025 Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion 1:2 ✺
    28.04.2025 Deportivo Recoleta - Cerro Porteño 1:3
    24.04.2025 Cerro Porteño - Sporting Cristal 2:2 ✺
    20.04.2025 Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Trinidense 1:0
    15.04.2025 Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño 1:3 ✺
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    04.05.2025 Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras 0:1 ✺
    30.04.2025 Ceará - Palmeiras 0:1
    27.04.2025 Palmeiras - Bahia 0:1 ✺
    24.04.2025 Bolívar - Palmeiras 2:3 ✺
    20.04.2025 Fortaleza - Palmeiras 1:2 ✺
    Copa Libertadores Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Estudiantes L.P640211:5612
    2Botafogo RJ64028:5312
    3U. De Chile63128:6210
    4Carabobo60152:13-111


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate633013:7612
    2U. de Deportes62224:408
    3Ind. del Valle62228:11-38
    4Barcelona SC61144:7-34


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1LDU Quito63218:4411
    2Flamengo RJ63216:3311
    3Central Cordoba63217:7011
    4Dep. Tachira60064:11-70


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sao Paulo642010:4614
    2Libertad Asuncion62316:519
    3Alianza Lima61237:11-45
    4Talleres Cordoba61145:8-34


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Club641114:31113
    2Fortaleza62228:538
    3Bucaramanga61326:10-46
    4Colo Colo61235:15-105


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Internacional632112:8411
    2Atl. Nacional63037:619
    3Bahia62135:7-27
    4Nacional62137:10-37


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras660017:41318
    2Cerro Porteno62137:11-47
    3Bolivar620412:1116
    4Sporting Cristal61146:16-104


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Velez Sarsfield632111:4711
    2Penarol63219:4511
    3SA Bulo Bulo62045:15-106
    4Olimpia Asuncion61239:11-25

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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