Peñarol de Montevideo vs Olimpia Asuncion: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Copa Libertadores
Soccer Copa Libertadores Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion
Result
3:2
14/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5
  • Referee: Roldan W. (Col)
Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.881.29
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
2316
Shots on target
76
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
51
Passes
83% (441/532)72% (281/389)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
1.881.29
xG on target (xGOT)
1.381.53
Total shots
2316
Shots on target
76
Shots off target
79
Blocked Shots
91
Shots inside the Box
108
Shots outside the Box
138
Hit the Woodwork
11
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
51
Touches in opposition box
1921
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
166
Passes
83% (441/532)72% (281/389)
Long passes
51% (35/69)32% (21/66)
Passes in final third
69% (115/166)62% (76/123)
Crosses
32% (8/25)30% (3/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.960.81
Throw-ins
2922
Fouls
616
Tackles
67% (12/18)67% (14/21)
Duels won
6058
Clearances
2836
Interceptions
79
Errors leading to shot
21
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
44
xGOT faced
1.531.38
Goals prevented
-0.47-1.62

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 13', 0 - 1, Lopez L. ⚽,
  • 37', 0 - 2, Leguizamon I. ⚽, Zabala F. (A),
  • 44', Zabala F. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 46', Perez R. ↓, Remedi E. ↑,
  • 46', Umpierrez L. ↓, Cabrera J. ↑,
  • 50', 1 - 2, Fernandez L. ⚽, Cabrera J. (A),
  • 55', 2 - 2, Olivera M. ⚽, Fernandez L. (A),
  • 58', Leguizamon I. ↓, Abreu L. ↑,
  • 66', Abreu L. 🟨,
  • 69', Baez J. ↓, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↑,
  • 71', Franco Zayas A. F. ↓, Pratto L. ↑,
  • 71', Benedetto D. ↓, Fernandez H. ↑,
  • 73', 3 - 2, Remedi E. ⚽, Garcia Cardozo D. G. (A),
  • 77', Redes R. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
  • 77', Gomez M. ↓, Benitez Sanchez H. ↑,
  • 79', Fernandez H. 🟨,
  • 81', Silvera M. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
  • 88', Sosa I. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
  • 90', Mendez J. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Peñarol de Montevideo
49.4%		Draw
28.5%		Olimpia Asuncion
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
54.1% 27.3% 18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56% 26.4% 18%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)
  • Olimpia Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
    •

    Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.91 ↑
    (1.72)    		 3.3 ↓
    (3.4)    		 4.29 ↓
    (5)    		 5.9%
    (7.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    •
    What is the prediction for Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion?
  • Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Peñarol is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • In recent matches, Olimpia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Peñarol has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Peñarol is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Peñarol: Avenatti F. (Muscle Injury) Darias E. (Knee Injury) Olase T. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Olimpia: Barreto Viera O. J. (Inactive) Franco Zayas A. F. (Injury) Gonzalez D. (Yellow Cards) Ortiz R. (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Olimpia: Olmedo C. (Injury)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion were as follows:
    23.04.2025 Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo 0:0
    Latest results of Peñarol de Montevideo
    06.05.2025 San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Peñarol de Montevideo 0:3 ✺
    02.05.2025 Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo 0:1
    27.04.2025 Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Abandoned
    23.04.2025 Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo 0:0 ✺
    19.04.2025 Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo 1:2
    Latest results of Olimpia Asuncion
    11.05.2025 Olimpia Asuncion - General Caballero JLM 0:3 ✺
    08.05.2025 Vélez Sársfield - Olimpia Asuncion 1:1 ✺
    03.05.2025 Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion 1:2 ✺
    28.04.2025 Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion 1:1 ✺
    23.04.2025 Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo 0:0 ✺
    Copa Libertadores Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Estudiantes L.P640211:5612
    2Botafogo RJ64028:5312
    3U. De Chile63128:6210
    4Carabobo60152:13-111


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate633013:7612
    2U. de Deportes62224:408
    3Ind. del Valle62228:11-38
    4Barcelona SC61144:7-34


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1LDU Quito63218:4411
    2Flamengo RJ63216:3311
    3Central Cordoba63217:7011
    4Dep. Tachira60064:11-70


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sao Paulo642010:4614
    2Libertad Asuncion62316:519
    3Alianza Lima61237:11-45
    4Talleres Cordoba61145:8-34


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Club641114:31113
    2Fortaleza62228:538
    3Bucaramanga61326:10-46
    4Colo Colo61235:15-105


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Internacional632112:8411
    2Atl. Nacional63037:619
    3Bahia62135:7-27
    4Nacional62137:10-37


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras660017:41318
    2Cerro Porteno62137:11-47
    3Bolivar620412:1116
    4Sporting Cristal61146:16-104


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Velez Sarsfield632111:4711
    2Penarol63219:4511
    3SA Bulo Bulo62045:15-106
    4Olimpia Asuncion61239:11-25

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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