Peñarol de Montevideo vs Nacional Montevideo: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Uruguayan Primera Division Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo
Result
1:0 penalties
06/07/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs - Final
Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
134
Shots on target
71
Corner Kicks
32
Yellow Cards
45
Red Cards
10
Total shots
134
Shots on target
71
Shots off target
63
Corner Kicks
32
Goalkeeper Saves
17

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 37', Herrera N. 🟨,
  • 41', Lopez N. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 54', Fernandez L. 🟨,
  • 54', Millan J. 🟨,
  • 59', Garcia Cardozo D. G. , David Terans ,
  • 63', Otero R. , Villalba Jaume L. M. ,
  • 63', Petit G. , Carneiro G. ,
  • 68', Recoba J. , Mereles E. ,
  • 76', Remedi E. 🟨,
  • 78', Peirano P. 🟨,
  • 80', Carneiro G. 🟨,
  • 80', Cabrera J. , Perez R. ,
  • 88', Oliva C. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Morales L. , Ancheta E. ,
  • 90+1', Oliva C. , Rodriguez Y. ,
  • 90+3', Villalba Jaume L. M. 🟨,
  • Extra Time (0 - 0)
  • 100', Silvera M. , Umpierrez L. ,
  • 105', Herrera N. , Leo Coelho ,
  • 105+1', Sosa I. , Muhlethaler S. ,
  • 107', Lopez N. , Pereyra M. ,
  • 117', Olivera M. 🟨,
  • 120+1', Remedi E. 🟥,
  • Penalties (5 - 3)
  • 1, David Terans (Pen),
  • 1, Carneiro G. (Pen),
  • 2, Fernandez L. (Pen),
  • 2, Coates S. (Pen),
  • 3, Leo Coelho (Pen),
  • 3, Boggio L. (Pen),
  • 4, Muhlethaler S. (Pen),
  • 4, Mejia L. (Pen),
  • 5, Umpierrez L. (Pen),

Chances of winning


Peñarol de Montevideo
33.3%
Draw
31.6%
Nacional Montevideo
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.2% 31% 26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7% 29.9% 25.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peñarol de Montevideo's form might have worsened.
  • Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+10.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-9.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.79
    (2.23)
    2.94
    (3.04)
    2.66
    (3.52)
    7.5%
    (6.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4%84.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio ~ Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio ~ Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 0.
    • Peñarol is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Nacional is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:25. (average 0.9:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.5:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo were as follows:
    09.02.2025 Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo 1:1
    26.01.2025 Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo 2:1
    20.01.2025 Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo 3:1
    06.10.2024 Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo 2:1
    04.08.2024 Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo 2:1
    Draw
    Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs

    Final
    1NacionalPenarol0 : 1
    Which TV channels are streaming of Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+
    brazilBrazilDisney+
    mexicoMexicoDisney+
    peruPeruDisney+
    south-americaSouth-americaGol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
    uruguayUruguayDisney+, VTV+
    usaUsaFanatiz
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
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