Fortaleza vs Mirassol: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Fortaleza - Mirassol
Result
0:1
24/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 21
  • Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)
Fortaleza - Mirassol - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.82
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
147
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
113
Passes
82% (324/394)83% (372/450)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.82
xG on target (xGOT)
2.551.24
Total shots
147
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
31
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
113
Touches in opposition box
3816
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
82% (324/394)83% (372/450)
Long passes
52% (24/46)48% (20/42)
Passes in final third
77% (113/146)66% (57/86)
Crosses
13% (6/45)25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.66
Throw-ins
1920
Fouls
1513
Tackles
60% (18/30)75% (15/20)
Duels won
6053
Clearances
2147
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
36
xGOT faced
1.242.55
Goals prevented
0.242.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 17', 0 - 1, Edson Carioca ,
  • 21', Bareiro A. (Pen),
  • 25', Lucas Ramon 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Pablo Roberto , Pochettino T. ,
  • 62', Bareiro A. 🟨,
  • 63', Lucas Sasha , Yago Pikachu ,
  • 68', Chico , Carlos Eduardo ,
  • 68', Jose Aldo , Chico Kim ,
  • 74', Bruno Pacheco , Weverson ,
  • 74', Bareiro A. , Lucero J. ,
  • 75', Negueba , Yago Felipe ,
  • 75', Edson Carioca , Cristian Renato ,
  • 79', Allanzinho , Marinho ,
  • 87', Neto Moura , Roni ,
  • 88', Joao Victor 🟨,
  • 88', Yago Pikachu 🟨,
  • 90+1', Pereira M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Marinho 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fortaleza
34.6%
Draw
31.4%
Mirassol
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.7% 29.3% 26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4% 29.8% 25.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.
  • Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirassol's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+10.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-8.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mirassol, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Fortaleza - Mirassol Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.97
    (2.1)
    3.21
    (3.2)
    2.94
    (3.6)
    -1.1%
    (6.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Mirassol?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 25.1%83.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • Recent form of Fortaleza has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • In recent matches, Mirassol has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Andrade K. (Yellow Cards) Brenno (Finger Injury) Breno Lopes (Yellow Cards) Britez E. (Yellow Cards) Kuscevic B. (Inactive) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pereira M. (Inactive) Pierre (Inactive) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Mirassol: Da Silva (Injury) PH (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mirassol: Matheus Sales (Injury) Rafa Silva (Thigh Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fortaleza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Mirassol were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Mirassol - Fortaleza 1:1
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    16.08.2025 Fluminense - Fortaleza 2:1
    09.08.2025 Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ 0:5
    03.08.2025 Corinthians - Fortaleza 1:1
    Latest results of Mirassol
    18.08.2025 Mirassol - Cruzeiro 1:1
    09.08.2025 Flamengo - Mirassol 2:1
    02.08.2025 Mirassol - Vasco da Gama 3:2
    23.07.2025 Ceará - Mirassol 0:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ23156248:113751
    2Cruzeiro24155439:172250
    3Palmeiras22154336:181849
    4Mirassol23119341:231842
    5Botafogo RJ23116634:171739
    6Bahia22107530:25537
    7Sao Paulo2498727:24335
    8Fluminense2294926:29-331
    9Bragantino24941129:35-631
    10Corinthians2478924:29-529
    11Ceara2377922:23-128
    12Gremio2377923:29-628
    13Internacional23761028:36-827
    14Santos23751122:32-1026
    15Atletico-MG2267921:26-525
    16Vasco23661133:34-124
    17Vitoria244101019:35-1622
    18Juventude23631419:45-2621
    19Fortaleza23461323:38-1518
    20Sport Recife22281216:34-1814

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Fortaleza - Mirassol?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    colombiaColombiaWin+ Futbol, Win play
    mexicoMexicoFanatiz
    usaUsaFanatiz, Fubo Latino 2
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