Matteo Arnaldi vs Felix Aliassime-Auger: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

27/05/2025 at 11:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stade Roland-Garros (Paris).

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/64-finals

Match Stats


Aces
7	8
Double Faults
8	7
1st Serve Percentage
59%	58%
1st Serve Points Won
72% (73/102)	71% (57/80)
2nd Serve Points Won
46% (32/70)	56% (32/57)
Break Points Saved
80% (16/20)	71% (12/17)
Average 1st Serve Speed
181 km/h	196 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
150 km/h	167 km/h
1st Return Points Won
29% (23/80)	28% (29/102)
2nd Return Points Won
44% (25/57)	54% (38/70)
Break Points Converted
29% (5/17)	20% (4/20)
Winners
46	59
Unforced Errors
52	55
Net Points Won
65% (26/40)	63% (34/54)
Service Points Won
61% (105/172)	65% (89/137)
Return Points Won
35% (48/137)	39% (67/172)
Total Points Won
50% (153/309)	50% (156/309)
Last 10 Balls
7	3
Match Points Saved
0	3
Service Games Won
83% (20/24)	78% (18/23)
Return Games Won
22% (5/23)	17% (4/24)
Total Games Won
53% (25/47)	47% (22/47)

Chances of winning

Matteo Arnaldi
47.5%

Felix Aliassime-Auger
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Felix Aliassime-Auger has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Felix Aliassime-Auger might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felix Aliassime-Auger than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Felix Aliassime-Auger could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matteo Arnaldi - Felix Aliassime-Auger Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.24)		1.82 ↑ (1.6)	5% (7.2%)

What is the prediction for Matteo Arnaldi - Felix Aliassime-Auger?

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Aliassime-Auger will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 48.7% – 87.7%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 1 - 50%). Aliassime-Auger (votes: 1 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:3.

Preview Facts

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 39. Aliassime-Auger is ranked ATP: 30.
In recent matches, Arnaldi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Aliassime-Auger is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Aliassime-Auger may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.
We predict that Aliassime-Auger will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.
In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

How many head-to-head matches has Matteo Arnaldi won against Felix Aliassime-Auger?

Matteo Arnaldi has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Felix Aliassime-Auger won against Matteo Arnaldi?

Felix Aliassime-Auger has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Matteo Arnaldi - Felix Aliassime-Auger were as follows:

Latest results of Matteo Arnaldi

22.05.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic 0:2 ✺

21.05.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan 2:0 ✺

19.05.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston 2:1 ✺

08.05.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Roberto Bautista-Agut 0:2 ✺

01.05.2025 Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Felix Aliassime-Auger

23.05.2025 Felix Aliassime-Auger - Andrey Rublev 0:2 ✺

22.05.2025 Alexandre Muller - Felix Aliassime-Auger 1:2 ✺

21.05.2025 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Felix Aliassime-Auger 0:2 ✺

20.05.2025 Daniel Altmaier - Felix Aliassime-Auger 0:2 ✺

10.05.2025 Felix Aliassime-Auger - Thiago Seyboth Wild Canceled ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Rinderknech A.	3 : 0
2	Atmane T. (WC)	Gasquet R. (WC)	1 : 3
3	Lehecka J.	Thompson J.	3 : 0
4	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	Davidovich Fokina A. (26)	1 : 3
5	Rublev A. (17)	Harris L. (Q)	3 : 1
6	Marterer M. (Q)	Walton A.	2 : 3
7	Ugo Carabelli C.	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Jarry N.	Fils A. (14)	1 : 3
9	De Minaur A. (9)	Djere L.	3 : 0
10	Bublik A.	Duckworth J.	3 : 0
11	Basilashvili N. (Q)	Rocha H. (Q)	2 : 3
12	Muller A.	Mensik J. (19)	1 : 3
13	Hurkacz H. (30)	Fonseca J.	0 : 3
14	Herbert P. (WC)	Bonzi B.	3 : 2
15	Monfils G.	Dellien H.	3 : 2
16	Bellucci M.	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tien L.	3 : 0
18	De Jong J.	Passaro F.	3 : 2
19	Cilic M. (LL)	Cobolli F.	0 : 3
20	Arnaldi M.	Auger-Aliassime F. (29)	3 : 2
21	Cerundolo F. (18)	Diallo G.	0 : 3
22	Giron M.	Griekspoor T.	1 : 3
23	Shevchenko A. (LL)	Lajovic D.	3 : 0
24	Quinn E. (Q)	Dimitrov G. (RET.) (16)	1 : 2
25	Medvedev D. (11)	Norrie C.	2 : 3
26	Kovacevic A.	Gomez F. A. (LL)	1 : 3
27	Fearnley J.	Wawrinka S. (WC)	3 : 0
28	O'Connell C.	Humbert U. (22)	0 : 3
29	Shapovalov D. (27)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
30	Misolic F. (Q)	Bu Y.	3 : 1
31	Moutet C.	Tabur C. (Q)	3 : 0
32	McDonald M.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
33	Musetti L. (8)	Hanfmann Y. (Q)	3 : 0
34	Royer V. (WC)	Galan D. E. (LL)	2 : 3
35	Opelka R.	Hijikata R.	3 : 1
36	Navone M.	Nakashima B. (28)	3 : 1
37	Machac T. (RET.) (21)	Halys Q.	0 : 1
38	Kecmanovic M.	Baez S.	3 : 2
39	Nava E. (WC)	Van De Zandschulp B.	3 : 0
40	Bautista-Agut R.	Rune H. (10)	1 : 3
41	Tiafoe F. (15)	Safiullin R.	3 : 0
42	Carreno-Busta P.	Comesana F.	3 : 0
43	Brooksby J.	Faria J.	3 : 1
44	Darderi L.	Korda S. (23)	1 : 3
45	Michelsen A. (32)	Cerundolo J. M. (Q)	0 : 3
46	Majchrzak K.	Medjedovic H.	0 : 3
47	Kopriva V.	Monteiro T.	3 : 2
48	Altmaier D.	Fritz T. (4)	3 : 1
49	Ruud C. (7)	Ramos A. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Jacquet K. (Q)	Borges N.	2 : 3
51	Tabilo A.	Cazaux A. (WC)	3 : 2
52	Nishioka Y. (RET.)	Popyrin A. (25)	0 : 2
53	Khachanov K. (24)	Vukic A.	3 : 0
54	Ofner S.	Struff J-L.	3 : 1
55	Fucsovics M.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	3 : 0
56	Moller E. (LL)	Paul T. (12)	1 : 3
57	Shelton B. (13)	Sonego L.	3 : 2
58	Gaston H.	Blanchet U. (Q)	3 : 2
59	Hassan B. (Q)	Gigante M. (Q)	0 : 3
60	Etcheverry T. M.	Tsitsipas S. (20)	0 : 3
61	Mpetshi Perricard G. (31)	Bergs Z.	3 : 1
62	Tirante T. A. (LL)	Dzumhur D.	1 : 3
63	Marozsan F.	Nardi L.	3 : 0
64	Zeppieri G. (Q)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Gasquet R.	3 : 0
2	Lehecka J.	Davidovich Fokina A. (26)	3 : 1
3	Rublev A. (17)	Walton A.	3 : 0
4	Munar J.	Fils A. (14)	2 : 3
5	De Minaur A. (9)	Bublik A.	2 : 3
6	Rocha H.	Mensik J. (19)	3 : 2
7	Fonseca J.	Herbert P.	3 : 0
8	Monfils G.	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
9	Zverev A. (3)	De Jong J.	3 : 1
10	Cobolli F.	Arnaldi M.	3 : 1
11	Diallo G.	Griekspoor T.	1 : 3
12	Shevchenko A.	Quinn E.	2 : 3
13	Norrie C.	Gomez F. A.	3 : 0
14	Fearnley J.	Humbert U. (RET.) (22)	1 : 0
15	Shapovalov D. (27)	Misolic F.	2 : 3
16	Moutet C.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
17	Musetti L. (8)	Galan D. E.	3 : 0
18	Opelka R.	Navone M.	0 : 3
19	Halys Q.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 1
20	Nava E.	Rune H. (10)	0 : 3
21	Tiafoe F. (15)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
22	Brooksby J.	Korda S. (23)	0 : 3
23	Cerundolo J. M.	Medjedovic H.	0 : 3
24	Kopriva V.	Altmaier D.	1 : 3
25	Ruud C. (7)	Borges N.	1 : 3
26	Tabilo A.	Popyrin A. (25)	0 : 3
27	Khachanov K. (24)	Ofner S.	3 : 2
28	Fucsovics M.	Paul T. (12)	2 : 3
29	Shelton B. (WO.) (13)	Gaston H.
30	Gigante M.	Tsitsipas S. (20)	3 : 1
31	Mpetshi Perricard G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	1 : 3
32	Marozsan F.	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Lehecka J.	3 : 0
2	Rublev A. (WO.) (17)	Fils A. (14)
3	Bublik A.	Rocha H.	3 : 0
4	Fonseca J.	Draper J. (5)	0 : 3
5	Zverev A. (3)	Cobolli F.	3 : 0
6	Griekspoor T.	Quinn E.	3 : 2
7	Norrie C.	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
8	Misolic F.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (8)	Navone M.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Rune H. (10)	2 : 3
11	Tiafoe F. (15)	Korda S. (23)	3 : 0
12	Medjedovic H.	Altmaier D.	1 : 3
13	Borges N.	Popyrin A. (25)	0 : 3
14	Khachanov K. (24)	Paul T. (12)	2 : 3
15	Shelton B. (13)	Gigante M.	3 : 0
16	Dzumhur D.	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Rublev A. (17)	3 : 0
2	Bublik A.	Draper J. (5)	3 : 1
3	Zverev A. (3)	Griekspoor T. (RET.)	1 : 0
4	Norrie C.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
5	Musetti L. (8)	Rune H. (10)	3 : 1
6	Tiafoe F. (15)	Altmaier D.	3 : 0
7	Popyrin A. (25)	Paul T. (12)	0 : 3
8	Shelton B. (13)	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A.	3 : 0
2	Zverev A. (3)	Djokovic N. (6)	1 : 3
3	Musetti L. (8)	Tiafoe F. (15)	3 : 1
4	Paul T. (12)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Djokovic N. (6)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (RET.) (8)	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 2

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

2 : 3

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