Luton Town vs Leeds United: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/04/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Kenilworth Road (Luton).

: Championship - Round 40
Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.82	1.03
Ball Possession
34%	66%
Total shots
8	8
Shots on target
3	5
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
0	5
Passes
61% (140/231)	81% (370/459)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82	1.03
xG on target (xGOT)
1.24	0.91
Total shots
8	8
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
1	1
Blocked Shots
4	2
Shots inside the Box
2	7
Shots outside the Box
6	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
0	5
Touches in opposition box
24	24
Through passes
0% (0/1)	67% (2/3)
Offsides
2	3
Free Kicks
13	15
Passes
61% (140/231)	81% (370/459)
Long passes
36% (19/53)	36% (22/61)
Passes in final third
51% (61/119)	70% (87/124)
Crosses
26% (5/19)	27% (6/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.85	1.04
Fouls
15	13
Tackles
35% (8/23)	68% (17/25)
Duels won
72	79
Clearances Total
52	67
Interceptions
3	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
4	2
xGOT faced
0.91	1.24
Goals prevented
-0.09	0.24

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Jones I. ⚽, Clark J. (A),
22', Jones I. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, James D. ⚽,
40', Bogle J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Adebayo E. ↓, Chong T. ↑,
59', Solomon M. 🟨,
63', Gnonto W. ↓, Bamford P. ↑,
77', Jones I. ↓, Alli M. ↑,
77', Doughty A. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
78', Walsh L. ↓, Dabo L. ↑,
79', Piroe J. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
86', Struijk P. ↓, Wober M. ↑,
87', Solomon M. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
87', Bogle J. ↓, Byram S. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Luton Town
17.4%

Draw
23.3%

Leeds United
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

22.4%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

24.6%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leeds United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luton Town - Leeds United Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.6 ↑ (5.59)	4.07 ↓ (4.2)	1.6 ↑ (1.55)	4.9% (6.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Luton Town - Leeds United?

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Leeds will win (votes: 15 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 52.1% – 90.7%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Leeds (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).
Luton is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Recent matches Leeds is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
In this match Leeds is a favorite.
There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Muscle Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Mengi T. (Groin Injury) Nakamba M. (Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Leeds: Bamford P. (Hamstring Injury)
Last 4 head-to-head matches Luton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:7 (average 0.5:1.8).
Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Leeds United?

Luton Town has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Leeds United won against Luton Town?

Leeds United has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Leeds United were as follows:

27.11.2024 Leeds United - Luton Town 3:0

Latest results of Luton Town

29.03.2025 Hull City - Luton Town 0:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Luton Town - Middlesbrough 0:0 ✺

11.03.2025 Cardiff City - Luton Town 1:2 ✺

08.03.2025 Burnley - Luton Town 4:0 ✺

01.03.2025 Luton Town - Portsmouth 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Leeds United

29.03.2025 Leeds United - Swansea City 2:2 ✺

15.03.2025 Queens Park Rangers - Leeds United 2:2 ✺

12.03.2025 Leeds United - Millwall 2:0 ✺

09.03.2025 Portsmouth - Leeds United 1:0 ✺

01.03.2025 Leeds United - West Bromwich Albion 1:1 ✺

English League Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coventry	9	5	4	0	27:7	20	19
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	12:6	6	18
3	Leicester	9	4	4	1	13:8	5	16
4	Preston	9	4	4	1	11:7	4	16
5	Stoke	9	4	3	2	11:6	5	15
6	QPR	9	4	3	2	13:14	-1	15
7	West Brom	9	4	2	3	9:10	-1	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	9:12	-3	14
9	Ipswich	8	3	4	1	15:8	7	13
10	Bristol City	9	3	4	2	15:10	5	13
11	Watford	9	3	3	3	11:11	0	12
12	Swansea	9	3	3	3	10:10	0	12
13	Charlton	9	3	3	3	8:8	0	12
14	Portsmouth	9	3	3	3	8:9	-1	12
15	Hull	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12
16	Birmingham	9	3	3	3	8:11	-3	12
17	Southampton	9	2	5	2	11:12	-1	11
18	Wrexham	9	2	4	3	14:15	-1	10
19	Norwich	9	2	2	5	11:14	-3	8
20	Derby	9	1	5	3	11:15	-4	8
21	Blackburn	8	2	1	5	7:11	-4	7
22	Oxford Utd	9	1	3	5	10:13	-3	6
23	Sheffield Wed	9	1	3	5	8:20	-12	6
24	Sheffield Utd	9	1	0	8	3:16	-13	3

      Promotion ~ Premier League
      Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ League One

Which TV channels are streaming of Luton Town - Leeds United?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	DStv Now, ESPN 1, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Variety 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
Singapore	mio Sports 1
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport ESPN, SuperSport Variety 2, SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Turkey	Exxen
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports 1, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Ultra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+