Italy vs Estonia, FIFA World Cup: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo).

: World Championship - Qualification
Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
4.43	0.41
Ball Possession
70%	30%
Total shots
40	4
Shots on target
13	2
Big Chances
10	1
Corner Kicks
12	3
Passes
90% (572/636)	77% (210/274)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Expected Goals (xG)
4.43	0.41
xG on target (xGOT)
4.66	0.23
Total shots
40	4
Shots on target
13	2
Shots off target
13	2
Blocked Shots
14	0
Shots inside the Box
25	1
Shots outside the Box
15	3
Hit the Woodwork
3	0
Headed Goals
4	0
Big Chances
10	1
Corner Kicks
12	3
Touches in opposition box
62	9
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
14	9
Passes
90% (572/636)	77% (210/274)
Long passes
65% (28/43)	50% (25/50)
Passes in final third
82% (235/285)	55% (27/49)
Crosses
45% (14/31)	25% (2/8)
Expected assists (xA)
4.37	0.39
Throw-ins
12	15
Fouls
9	14
Tackles
78% (7/9)	30% (3/10)
Duels won
37	33
Clearances
15	35
Interceptions
3	3
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	8
xGOT faced
0.23	4.66
Goals prevented
0.23	-0.34

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Kristal P. 🟨,
2nd Half (5 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Kean M. ⚽, Retegui M. (A),
61', Kristal P. ↓, Ainsalu M. ↑,
64', Bastoni A. 🟨,
66', Zaccagni M. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
67', Dimarco F. ↓, Cambiaso A. ↑,
67', Sinyavskiy V. ↓, Saarma R. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Retegui M. ⚽, Raspadori G. (A),
71', 3 - 0, Raspadori G. ⚽, Politano M. (A),
76', Tonali S. ↓, Locatelli M. ↑,
76', Politano M. ↓, Orsolini R. ↑,
77', Paskotsi M. 🟨,
80', Paskotsi M. ↓, Tamm J. ↑,
80', Shein R. R. ↓, Soomets M. ↑,
80', Sappinen R. ↓, Anier H. ↑,
84', Kean M. ↓, Esposito F. ↑,
89', 4 - 0, Retegui M. ⚽, Cambiaso A. (A),
90+2', 5 - 0, Bastoni A. ⚽, Raspadori G. (A),
90+5', Anier H. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Italy
90.7%

Draw
6.9%

Estonia
2.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.3%

8.3%

3.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Estonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Italy - Estonia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.06 ↓ (1.07)	13.9 ↑ (11.34)	42.6 ↑ (27.67)	3.6% (5.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

What is the prediction for Italy - Estonia?

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 36 - 92.3%). Estonia will win (votes: 1 - 2.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 83.9% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Italy will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:0.

Preview Facts

In this match, Italy is the undisputed favorite.
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Italy won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Italy won against Estonia?

Italy has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Estonia won against Italy?

Estonia has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Italy - Estonia were as follows:

Latest results of Italy

09.06.2025 Italy - Moldova 2:0 ✺

06.06.2025 Norway - Italy 3:0 ✺

23.03.2025 Germany - Italy 3:3 ✺

20.03.2025 Italy - Germany 1:2 ✺

17.11.2024 Italy - France 1:3 ✺

Latest results of Estonia

09.06.2025 Estonia - Norway 0:1 ✺

06.06.2025 Estonia - Israel 1:3 ✺

25.03.2025 Moldova - Estonia 2:3 ✺

22.03.2025 Israel - Estonia 2:1 ✺

19.11.2024 Slovakia - Estonia 1:0 ✺

FIFA World Cup Table

South America

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Argentina	18	12	2	4	31:10	21	38
2	Ecuador	18	8	8	2	14:5	9	29
3	Colombia	18	7	7	4	28:18	10	28
4	Uruguay	18	7	7	4	22:12	10	28
5	Brazil	18	8	4	6	24:17	7	28
6	Paraguay	18	7	7	4	14:10	4	28
7	Bolivia	18	6	2	10	17:35	-18	20
8	Venezuela	18	4	6	8	18:28	-10	18
9	Peru	18	2	6	10	6:21	-15	12
10	Chile	18	2	5	11	9:27	-18	11

Promotion ~ World Championship
Promotion ~ World Championship (Promotion: )

Which TV channels are streaming of Italy - Estonia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	TV2 Play
Estonia	ETV 2
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Free, L'Equipe, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Vision+
Indonesia	iNews, K-Vision, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 1
Maldives	Medianet
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, SportKlub 7
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV, SPOTV Now
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Turkey	Exxen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+