Estonia vs Italy, FIFA World Cup: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

11/10/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn).

: World Cup - Qualification
Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.97	2.29
Ball Possession
36%	64%
Total shots
2	24
Shots on target
1	9
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
0	8
Passes
74% (242/325)	88% (506/577)
Yellow Cards
4	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97	2.29
xG on target (xGOT)
0.98	2.45
Total shots
2	24
Shots on target
1	9
Shots off target
1	8
Blocked Shots
0	7
Shots inside the Box
2	17
Shots outside the Box
0	7
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
0	8
Touches in opposition box
7	40
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
0	0
Free Kicks
9	22
Passes
74% (242/325)	88% (506/577)
Long passes
35% (18/52)	56% (25/45)
Passes in final third
46% (26/57)	70% (102/146)
Crosses
20% (1/5)	50% (9/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.08	1.38
Throw-ins
14	19
Fouls
22	9
Tackles
62% (8/13)	42% (5/12)
Duels won
40	52
Clearances
39	13
Interceptions
9	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
6	0
xGOT faced
2.45	0.98
Goals prevented
-0.55	-0.02

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Kean M. ⚽, Dimarco F. (A),
12', Barella N. 🟨,
15', Kean M. ↓, Esposito F. ↑,
29', Kuusk M. 🟨,
30', Retegui M. (Pen),
38', 0 - 2, Retegui M. ⚽, Orsolini R. (A),
41', Palumets K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Palumets K. ↓, Schjonning-Larsen M. ↑,
46', Saliste J. ↓, Sinyavskiy V. ↑,
59', Peetson R. 🟨,
62', Orsolini R. ↓, Cambiaso A. ↑,
62', Raspadori G. ↓, Spinazzola L. ↑,
62', Tamm A. ↓, Sappinen R. ↑,
62', Kuusk M. ↓, Mets K. ↑,
72', Bastoni A. 🟨,
74', 0 - 3, Esposito F. ⚽, Spinazzola L. (A),
76', 1 - 3, Sappinen R. ⚽,
77', Barella N. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
78', Retegui M. ↓, Cristante B. ↑,
83', Shein R. R. ↓, Mustmaa K. ↑,
84', Cambiaso A. 🟨,
87', Sinyavskiy V. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Estonia
3.1%

Draw
7.3%

Italy
89.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

4.4%

11.4%

84.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Italy's recent form is better than expected.

Estonia - Italy Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	33.86 ↑ (21)	13.65 ↑ (8.2)	1.07 ↓ (1.11)	3.5% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

What is the prediction for Estonia - Italy?

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 23 - 88.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 76.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +2.5 - Italy (votes: 3 - 100%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Italy will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.

Preview Facts

In this match, Italy is the clear favorite.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Estonia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:9. (average 0:4.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Estonia won against Italy?

Estonia has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Italy won against Estonia?

Italy has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Estonia - Italy were as follows:

05.09.2025 Italy - Estonia 5:0

Latest results of Estonia

09.09.2025 Estonia - Andorra 0:0 ✺

05.09.2025 Italy - Estonia 5:0 ✺

09.06.2025 Estonia - Norway 0:1 ✺

06.06.2025 Estonia - Israel 1:3 ✺

25.03.2025 Moldova - Estonia 2:3 ✺

Latest results of Italy

08.09.2025 Israel - Italy 4:5 ✺

05.09.2025 Italy - Estonia 5:0 ✺

09.06.2025 Italy - Moldova 2:0 ✺

06.06.2025 Norway - Italy 3:0 ✺

23.03.2025 Germany - Italy 3:3 ✺

FIFA World Cup Table

South America

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Argentina	18	12	2	4	31:10	21	38
2	Ecuador	18	8	8	2	14:5	9	29
3	Colombia	18	7	7	4	28:18	10	28
4	Uruguay	18	7	7	4	22:12	10	28
5	Brazil	18	8	4	6	24:17	7	28
6	Paraguay	18	7	7	4	14:10	4	28
7	Bolivia	18	6	2	10	17:35	-18	20
8	Venezuela	18	4	6	8	18:28	-10	18
9	Peru	18	2	6	10	6:21	-15	12
10	Chile	18	2	5	11	9:27	-18	11

Promotion ~ World Championship
Promotion ~ World Championship (Promotion: )

Which TV channels are streaming of Estonia - Italy?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Estonia	ETV 2, Soccernet TV
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	L'Equipe, L'Equipe Live Foot
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 3
Israel	5 SPORT Israel, Sport 4
Italy	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
New-zealand	Sky Sport Select
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV, SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+