Result
1:3
14/04/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- : Liga Pro - Round 8
- Referee: Congo F. (Ecu)
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Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.16 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (346/412) | 83% (293/355) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.16 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.98 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (346/412) | 83% (293/355) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (23/61) | 58% (39/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (63/103) | 65% (59/91) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (4/22) | 17% (1/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 0.68 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 82% (9/11) | 78% (14/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 46 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 8 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.98 | 0.59 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.02 | -0.41 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 11', 0 - 1, Hoyos M. ⚽, Arroyo J. P. (A),
- 23', 0 - 2, Rodriguez A. ⚽, Mercado P. (A),
- 26', 1 - 2, Cela A. ⚽, Cevallos J. (A),
- 28', Cortez G. 🟨,
- 32', Ledesma A. 🟨,
- 32', 1 - 3, Arroyo J. P. ⚽, Zarate L. (A),
- 44', Carabali F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Montano M. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
- 46', Olmedo M. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
- 62', Hoyos M. ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
- 63', Arroyo J. P. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
- 63', Cela A. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 63', Rivera B. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
- 73', Mercado P. ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
- 73', Cazares ↓, Zabala C. ↑,
- 73', Cortez G. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
- 73', Carabali F. ↓, Flor F. ↑,
Chances of winning
El Nacional
24.3% | Draw
28% | Independiente del Valle
47.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
El Nacional - Independiente del Valle Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.79 ↑
(3.36) |
3.28 ↓
(3.31) |
1.94 ↓
(2.09) |
8.4%
(7.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for El Nacional - Independiente del Valle?
Users Predictions:
Independiente del Valle will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Independiente del Valle will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 3.
- El Nacional is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Ind del Valle is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- El Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- In this match Ind del Valle is a favorite.
- Last 20 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 27:35 (average 1.4:1.8).
- Including matches at home between the teams El Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:18 (average 1.4:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Independiente del Valle?
El Nacional has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against El Nacional?
Independiente del Valle has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - Independiente del Valle were as follows:
27.11.2024
Independiente del Valle
-
El Nacional
0:1
03.11.2024
Independiente del Valle
-
El Nacional
2:0
12.05.2024
El Nacional
-
Independiente del Valle
1:2
02.12.2023
El Nacional
-
Independiente del Valle
2:1
16.06.2023
Independiente del Valle
-
El Nacional
3:4
Latest results of El Nacional
Latest results of Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29:14 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 20:15 | 5 | 29 |
| 3 | Aucas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 22:16 | 6 | 25 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 22:14 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 14:13 | 1 | 23 |
| 6 | Orense | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 23 |
| 7 | Vinotinto | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 5 | 22 |
| 8 | U. Catolica | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:19 | 5 | 20 |
| 9 | EL Nacional | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 21:21 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Libertad | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19:20 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Delfin | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12:20 | -8 | 18 |
| 12 | Manta | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 21:27 | -6 | 16 |
| 13 | Emelec | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 9:18 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 | Macara | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Mushuc Runa | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 21:26 | -5 | 15 |
| 16 | Tecnico U | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14:25 | -11 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Which TV channels are streaming of El Nacional - Independiente del Valle?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
