Genoa vs Milan: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/05/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa).

: Serie A - Round 35
Referee: Collu G. (Ita)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.57	1.09
Ball Possession
40%	60%
Total shots
11	10
Shots on target
4	5
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
8	7
Passes
81% (273/337)	88% (465/530)
Yellow Cards
1	5
Expected Goals (xG)
0.57	1.09
xG on target (xGOT)
0.84	1.95
Total shots
11	10
Shots on target
4	5
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked Shots
2	2
Shots inside the Box
9	4
Shots outside the Box
2	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
8	7
Touches in opposition box
19	28
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
12	14
Passes
81% (273/337)	88% (465/530)
Long passes
50% (15/30)	65% (32/49)
Passes in final third
65% (64/99)	80% (64/80)
Crosses
29% (6/21)	38% (3/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.48	0.36
Throw-ins
16	22
Fouls
14	12
Tackles
50% (12/24)	100% (5/5)
Duels won
57	45
Clearances
16	22
Interceptions
7	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	3
xGOT faced
1.95	0.84
Goals prevented
0.95	-0.16

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Pavlovic S. 🟨,
27', Thorsby M. 🟨,
28', Fofana Y. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Sabelli S. ↓, Zanoli A. ↑,
60', Junior Messias ↓, Vitinha ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Vitinha ⚽, Martin A. (A),
69', Loftus-Cheek R. 🟨,
70', Jimenez A. ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
70', Jovic L. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
72', Thorsby M. ↓, Ahanor H. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Leao R. ⚽, Gimenez S. (A),
77', 1 - 2, Frendrup M. (Own goal),
79', Tomori F. ↓, Walker K. ↑,
79', Pulisic C. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
82', Leao R. 🟨,
84', Gabbia M. 🟨,
86', Norton-Cuffy B. ↓, Ekhator J. ↑,
90+2', Joao Felix 🟨,

Chances of winning

Genoa
20.3%

Draw
25.1%

Milan
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

27%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

26.8%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Genoa - Milan Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.66 ↑ (4.12)	3.8 ↑ (3.56)	1.75 ↓ (1.93)	4.8% (4.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Genoa - Milan?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%).

Users Predictions: Milan will win (78 of 91 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.52% – 92.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Milan will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 0.
Genoa is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Milan is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
In this match, Milan is the team to beat.
There will not play in Genoa: Balotelli M. (Coach's decision) Cuenca Martinez H. F. (Injury) Ekuban C. (Injury) Malinovsky R. (Ankle Injury) Miretti F. (Shoulder Injury) Onana J. (Injury)
There are questionable in Genoa: Matturro A. (Thigh Injury)
There are questionable in Milan: Emerson Royal (Calf Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:28. (average 1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Genoa won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.9:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Genoa won against Milan?

Genoa has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Milan won against Genoa?

Milan has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Genoa - Milan were as follows:

15.12.2024 Milan - Genoa 0:0

05.05.2024 Milan - Genoa 3:3

07.10.2023 Genoa - Milan 0:1

Latest results of Genoa

27.04.2025 Como - Genoa 1:0 ✺

23.04.2025 Genoa - Lazio 0:2 ✺

13.04.2025 Verona - Genoa 0:0 ✺

04.04.2025 Genoa - Udinese 1:0 ✺

29.03.2025 Juventus - Genoa 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Milan

27.04.2025 Venezia - Milan 0:2 ✺

23.04.2025 Inter Milan - Milan 0:3 ✺

20.04.2025 Milan - Atalanta 0:1 ✺

11.04.2025 Udinese - Milan 0:4 ✺

05.04.2025 Milan - Fiorentina 2:2 ✺

Italian Serie A Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Pisa	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Cremonese	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Inter	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Torino	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Parma	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Verona	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Como	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B

Which TV channels are streaming of Genoa - Milan?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Optus Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 2
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Sports, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Onefootball