Fluminense vs Fortaleza: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Fluminense - Fortaleza
Result
2:1
16/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 20
  • Referee: Klein R. (Bra)
Fluminense - Fortaleza - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.921.95
Ball Possession
43%57%
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
26
Passes
81% (319/393)86% (445/515)
Yellow Cards
24
Expected Goals (xG)
0.921.95
xG on target (xGOT)
1.732.45
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
43
Blocked Shots
34
Shots inside the Box
78
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
26
Touches in opposition box
2327
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
178
Passes
81% (319/393)86% (445/515)
Long passes
50% (24/48)58% (34/59)
Passes in final third
66% (55/83)73% (102/140)
Crosses
22% (2/9)26% (6/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.771.41
Throw-ins
1523
Fouls
1018
Tackles
85% (11/13)67% (6/9)
Duels won
4637
Clearances
2412
Interceptions
78
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
41
xGOT faced
2.451.73
Goals prevented
1.45-0.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 9', 1 - 0, Cano G. , Serna K. (A),
  • 24', Keno , Canobbio A. ,
  • 43', Andrade K. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Britez E. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Breno Lopes 🟨,
  • 45+5', Martinelli 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Andrade K. , Lucca Prior ,
  • 55', Bernal F. 🟨,
  • 57', Lucero J. 🟨,
  • 63', Herrera J. , Breno Lopes ,
  • 63', Lucero J. , Deyverson ,
  • 64', 2 - 0, Canobbio A. , Serna K. (A),
  • 67', Martinelli , Hercules ,
  • 73', Yago Pikachu , Allanzinho ,
  • 73', 2 - 1, Breno Lopes , Allanzinho (A),
  • 80', PH Ganso , Lima ,
  • 80', Cano G. , Everaldo ,
  • 86', Matheus Rossetto , Bareiro A. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fluminense
54.5%
Draw
26.8%
Fortaleza
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.2% 28.5% 20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2% 28% 19.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
  • Fluminense - Fortaleza Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.75
    (1.83)
    3.54
    (3.3)
    5.02
    (4.62)
    5.3%
    (6.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Fluminense - Fortaleza?
  • Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 68.42%98.24%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Fluminense will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1.
    • Fluminense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Fortaleza has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Fluminense is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Fluminense: Freytes J. (Red Card) Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Ignacio (Knee Injury) Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury) Thiago Silva (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Brenno (Finger Injury) Gustavo Mancha (Red Card) Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fluminense: Soteldo Y. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Pereira M. (Inactive)
    • We predict that Fluminense will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.1:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Fortaleza were as follows:
    29.03.2025 Fortaleza - Fluminense 2:0
    22.11.2024 Fluminense - Fortaleza 2:2
    07.07.2024 Fortaleza - Fluminense 1:0
    03.09.2023 Fluminense - Fortaleza 1:0
    10.09.2022 Fluminense - Fortaleza 2:1
    Latest results of Fluminense
    09.08.2025 Bahia - Fluminense 3:3
    02.08.2025 Fluminense - Grêmio 1:0
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    09.08.2025 Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ 0:5
    03.08.2025 Corinthians - Fortaleza 1:1
    29.07.2025 Grêmio - Fortaleza 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ20144244:93546
    2Palmeiras19133327:151242
    3Cruzeiro21125434:151941
    4Bahia19106327:171036
    5Botafogo RJ1995526:121432
    6Mirassol1988330:191132
    7Sao Paulo2188526:22432
    8Bragantino2193926:28-230
    9Fluminense1983825:28-327
    10Ceara2075819:19026
    11Corinthians2167822:27-525
    12Atletico-MG1966720:23-324
    13Internacional2066823:28-524
    14Gremio2066819:25-624
    15Santos20631120:31-1121
    16Vasco20541127:29-219
    17Vitoria21310818:32-1419
    18Juventude20531218:41-2318
    19Fortaleza20361119:32-1315
    20Sport Recife19171112:30-1810

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Fluminense - Fortaleza?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    mexicoMexicoFanatiz
    portugalPortugalCanal 11
    usaUsaFanatiz
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