Fiorentina vs Napoli: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Italian Serie A Fiorentina - Napoli
Result
1:3
13/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A - Round 3
  • Referee: Zufferli L. (Ita)
Fiorentina - Napoli - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.663.17
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
39
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
85
Passes
82% (373/456)83% (346/419)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.663.17
xG on target (xGOT)
0.393.73
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
39
Shots off target
92
Blocked Shots
63
Shots inside the Box
1311
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
85
Touches in opposition box
3028
Accurate through passes
12
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1413
Passes
82% (373/456)83% (346/419)
Long passes
41% (19/46)36% (17/47)
Passes in final third
62% (69/112)69% (72/104)
Crosses
30% (7/23)8% (1/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.331.94
Throw-ins
1411
Fouls
1414
Tackles
54% (7/13)86% (12/14)
Duels won
5254
Clearances
1533
Interceptions
66
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
62
xGOT faced
3.730.39
Goals prevented
0.73-0.61

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 6', 0 - 1, De Bruyne K. (Pen),
  • 14', 0 - 2, Hojlund R. , Spinazzola L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Dzeko E. , Piccoli R. ,
  • 51', 0 - 3, Beukema S. , Anguissa F. (A),
  • 65', Fagioli N. , Nicolussi Caviglia H. ,
  • 65', Sohm S. , Fazzini J. ,
  • 69', Politano M. , David Neres ,
  • 69', De Bruyne K. , Elmas E. ,
  • 69', Spinazzola L. , Olivera M. ,
  • 73', Hojlund R. , Lucca L. ,
  • 79', 1 - 3, Ranieri L. ,
  • 87', Comuzzo P. , Lamptey T. ,
  • 90+3', Lobotka S. , Gilmour B. ,
  • 90+3', Pongracic M. , Viti M. ,

Official Live

Chances of winning


Fiorentina
13.7%
Draw
23.6%
Napoli
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
25.5% 29.6% 44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4% 30.7% 43.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.
  • Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Napoli's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+12.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-19.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Napoli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Fiorentina - Napoli Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    9.78
    (3.75)
    5.56
    (3.22)
    1.96
    (2.13)
    -20.7%
    (4.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Fiorentina - Napoli?
  • Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 3 - 7.5%). Napoli will win (votes: 31 - 77.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 64.6%90.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Napoli (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.
    • Fiorentina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Napoli is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of away games.
    • Recently, Napoli has had a series of home games.
    • Napoli could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Napoli: Contini N. (Hand Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fiorentina: Gudmundsson A. (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Napoli: David Neres (Muscle Injury) Gutierrez M. (Ankle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:36. (average 1.2:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.1:1.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fiorentina - Napoli were as follows:
    09.03.2025 Napoli - Fiorentina 2:1
    04.01.2025 Fiorentina - Napoli 0:3
    17.05.2024 Fiorentina - Napoli 2:2
    18.01.2024 Napoli - Fiorentina 3:0
    08.10.2023 Napoli - Fiorentina 1:3
    Latest results of Fiorentina
    Latest results of Napoli
    30.08.2025 Napoli - Cagliari 1:0
    23.08.2025 Sassuolo - Napoli 0:2
    10.08.2025 Napoli - Sorrento 4:0
    09.08.2025 Napoli - Girona 3:2
    Italian Serie A Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Napoli33006:159
    2Juventus33007:349
    3Cremonese32105:327
    4Udinese32104:227
    5AC Milan32014:226
    6AS Roma32012:116
    7Atalanta31206:335
    8Cagliari31113:214
    9Como31113:214
    10Torino31111:5-44
    11Inter31029:633
    12Lazio31024:313
    13Bologna31021:2-13
    14Sassuolo31023:5-23
    15Genoa30211:2-12
    16Fiorentina30212:4-22
    17Verona30211:5-42
    18Pisa30121:3-21
    19Parma30121:5-41
    20Lecce30121:6-51

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B

    Which TV channels are streaming of Fiorentina - Napoli?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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    kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
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    thailandThailandTrue ID, True Premier Football 3
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