Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Daniil Medvedev: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Tennis ATP Shanghai Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev
Result
0:2
06/10/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
19
Double Faults
21
1st Serve Percentage
67%58%
1st Serve Points Won
70% (38/54)92% (33/36)
2nd Serve Points Won
41% (11/27)58% (15/26)
Break Points Saved
89% (8/9)100% (1/1)
1st Return Points Won
22% (8/36)30% (16/54)
2nd Return Points Won
42% (11/26)59% (16/27)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/1)11% (1/9)
Winners
623
Unforced Errors
104
Net Points Won
188% (15/8)64% (9/14)
Service Points Won
61% (49/80)80% (48/60)
Return Points Won
20% (12/60)39% (31/80)
Total Points Won
44% (61/140)56% (79/140)
Last 10 Balls
46
Match Points Saved
10
Service Games Won
90% (9/10)100% (11/11)
Return Games Won
0% (0/11)10% (1/10)
Total Games Won
43% (9/21)57% (12/21)

Chances of winning


Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
35.3%
Daniil Medvedev
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.3% 66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8% 71.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Medvedev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.7
    (2.75)

    1.49
    (1.37)
    4.3%
    (9.4%)
    What is the prediction for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev?
  • Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). Medvedev will win (votes: 30 - 71.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 57.7%85.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Daniil Medvedev will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 20. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 18.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 1.
    • Davidovich Fokina has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Medvedev is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Medvedev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Medvedev could have a small edge in this match.
    • We predict that Medvedev will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.6:1.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev were as follows:
    28.09.2025 Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2:0
    08.08.2024 Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1:2
    29.02.2024 Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2:0
    15.03.2023 Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2:0
    14.02.2023 Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2:1
    Latest results of Daniil Medvedev
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Moutet C. (33)Bye
    2Tien L.Kecmanovic M.2 : 1
    3Cazaux A.Martinez P.2 : 1
    4ByeNorrie C. (30)
    5Davidovich Fokina A. (18)Bye
    6Arnaldi M.Sakamoto R. (Q)2 : 0
    7Wu Y. (RET.) (WC)Svrcina D. (Q)0 : 1
    8ByeMedvedev D. (16)
    9Khachanov K. (9)Bye
    10Kovacevic A.Shang J. (WC)1 : 2
    11Van De Zandschulp B.Borges N.0 : 2
    12ByeVukic A. (LL)
    13Nakashima B. (29)Bye
    14Majchrzak K.Quinn E.2 : 0
    15Ugo Carabelli C.Atmane T. (RET.)0 : 0
    16ByeDe Minaur A. (7)
    17Zverev A. (3)Bye
    18Royer V. (Q)Navone M.2 : 1
    19Rinderknech A.Medjedovic H. (RET.)0 : 1
    20ByeMichelsen A. (28)
    21Shapovalov D. (23)Bye
    22Dzumhur D.O'Connell C.0 : 2
    23McDonald M. (LL)Halys Q.0 : 2
    24ByeLehecka J. (15)
    25Auger-Aliassime F. (12)Bye
    26Giron M.Tabilo A. (Q)0 : 2
    27Zhou Y. (WC)De Jong J.1 : 2
    28ByeMensik J. (17)
    29Darderi L. (26)Bye
    30Bu Y.Cerundolo J. M.2 : 1
    31Comesana F.Blanchet U. (Q)2 : 0
    32ByeMusetti L. (8)
    33Shelton B. (6)Bye
    34Goffin D.Muller A.2 : 1
    35Opelka R.Bonzi B.0 : 2
    36ByeDiallo G. (31)
    37Cerundolo F. (19)Bye
    38Mannarino A.Berrettini M.2 : 0
    39Korda S.Bergs Z.0 : 2
    40ByeRuud C. (11)
    41Rublev A. (13)Bye
    42Nishioka Y. (Q)Shevchenko A.2 : 0
    43Munar J.Fucsovics M.2 : 1
    44ByeCobolli F. (22)
    45Tiafoe F. (25)Bye
    46Sonego L.Hanfmann Y. (Q)1 : 2
    47Cilic M.Basilashvili N. (Q)2 : 0
    48ByeDjokovic N. (4)
    49Fritz T. (5)Bye
    50Marozsan F.Wawrinka S. (WC)2 : 1
    51Ofner S. (PR)Nardi L.1 : 2
    52ByeMpetshi Perricard G. (32)
    53Humbert U. (21)Bye
    54Thompson J.Holmgren A. (Q)2 : 1
    55Zhang Z. (WC)Baez S.1 : 2
    56ByeRune H. (10)
    57Bublik A. (14)Bye
    58Djere L.Vacherot V. (Q)0 : 2
    59Walton A.Bellucci M.0 : 2
    60ByeMachac T. (20)
    61Griekspoor T. (27)Bye
    62Brooksby J. (PR)Trotter J. K. (Q)2 : 0
    63Schoolkate T. (Q)Altmaier D.0 : 2
    64ByeSinner J. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Moutet C. (33)Tien L.1 : 2
    2Cazaux A.Norrie C. (30)1 : 2
    3Davidovich Fokina A. (18)Arnaldi M.2 : 0
    4Svrcina D.Medvedev D. (16)0 : 2
    5Khachanov K. (9)Shang J.0 : 2
    6Borges N.Vukic A.2 : 0
    7Nakashima B. (29)Majchrzak K.0 : 2
    8Ugo Carabelli C.De Minaur A. (7)0 : 2
    9Zverev A. (3)Royer V.2 : 0
    10Rinderknech A.Michelsen A. (28)2 : 0
    11Shapovalov D. (23)O'Connell C.2 : 0
    12Halys Q.Lehecka J. (15)0 : 2
    13Auger-Aliassime F. (12)Tabilo A.2 : 0
    14De Jong J.Mensik J. (17)2 : 1
    15Darderi L. (26)Bu Y.2 : 0
    16Comesana F.Musetti L. (8)0 : 2
    17Shelton B. (6)Goffin D.0 : 2
    18Bonzi B.Diallo G. (31)0 : 2
    19Cerundolo F. (19)Mannarino A.2 : 0
    20Bergs Z.Ruud C. (RET.) (11)1 : 1
    21Rublev A. (13)Nishioka Y.1 : 2
    22Munar J.Cobolli F. (22)2 : 0
    23Tiafoe F. (25)Hanfmann Y.1 : 2
    24Cilic M.Djokovic N. (4)0 : 2
    25Fritz T. (5)Marozsan F.2 : 1
    26Nardi L.Mpetshi Perricard G. (32)0 : 2
    27Humbert U. (21)Thompson J.2 : 0
    28Baez S.Rune H. (10)0 : 2
    29Bublik A. (14)Vacherot V.1 : 2
    30Bellucci M.Machac T. (20)0 : 2
    31Griekspoor T. (27)Brooksby J.2 : 1
    32Altmaier D.Sinner J. (2)0 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Tien L.Norrie C. (30)2 : 0
    2Davidovich Fokina A. (18)Medvedev D. (16)0 : 2
    3Shang J.Borges N.1 : 2
    4Majchrzak K.De Minaur A. (7)0 : 2
    5Zverev A. (3)Rinderknech A.1 : 2
    6Shapovalov D. (23)Lehecka J. (15)0 : 2
    7Auger-Aliassime F. (12)De Jong J.2 : 0
    8Darderi L. (26)Musetti L. (8)0 : 2
    9Goffin D. (RET.)Diallo G. (31)0 : 0
    10Cerundolo F. (19)Bergs Z.0 : 2
    11Nishioka Y.Munar J.1 : 2
    12Hanfmann Y.Djokovic N. (4)1 : 2
    13Fritz T. (5)Mpetshi Perricard G. (32)0 : 2
    14Humbert U. (21)Rune H. (10)0 : 2
    15Vacherot V.Machac T. (RET.) (20)1 : 0
    16Griekspoor T. (27)Sinner J. (RET.) (2)1 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1Tien L.Medvedev D. (16)1 : 2
    2Borges N.De Minaur A. (7)0 : 2
    3Rinderknech A.Lehecka J. (15)2 : 0
    4Auger-Aliassime F. (12)Musetti L. (8)2 : 0
    5Diallo G. (31)Bergs Z.1 : 2
    6Munar J.Djokovic N. (4)1 : 2
    7Mpetshi Perricard G. (32)Rune H. (10)1 : 2
    8Vacherot V.Griekspoor T. (27)2 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1Medvedev D. (16)De Minaur A. (7)
    2Rinderknech A.Auger-Aliassime F. (12)
    3Bergs Z.Djokovic N. (4)
    4Rune H. (10)Vacherot V.

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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