Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer MLS Cincinnati - Chicago Fire
Result
2:1
05/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : MLS
Cincinnati - Chicago Fire - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
xG on target (xGOT)
1.330.62
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
65
Shots outside the Box
710
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Touches in opposition box
1321
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
138
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Long passes
65% (34/52)63% (31/49)
Passes in final third
74% (56/76)80% (135/169)
Crosses
0% (0/7)13% (3/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.290.75
Throw-ins
1316
Fouls
813
Tackles
47% (8/17)57% (12/21)
Duels won
5142
Clearances
3611
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
0.621.33
Goals prevented
-0.38-0.67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 19', 1 - 0, Evander , Orellano L. (A),
  • 45+2', Engel L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 50', 2 - 0, Denkey K. , Evander (A), Kamara K. (A2)
  • 53', Kamara K. 🟨,
  • 55', 2 - 1, Zinckernagel P. , Gutman A. (A), Bamba J. (A2)
  • 68', Kamara K. , Valenzuela G. ,
  • 73', Orellano L. , Smith B. ,
  • 73', Barroso L. , Dean J. ,
  • 73', Gutierrez B. , Haile-Selassie M. ,
  • 76', Bamba J. 🟨,
  • 83', Oregel S. , Barlow T. ,
  • 83', Bamba J. , Glasgow O. ,
  • 90', Evander , Hadebe T. ,
  • 90', Denkey K. , Baird C. ,
  • 90+4', Zinckernagel P. , Williams S. ,
  • 90+7', Elliott J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cincinnati
50.3%
Draw
22.7%
Chicago Fire
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.3% 21% 20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6% 20.2% 19.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.
  • Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chicago Fire's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chicago Fire, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Cincinnati - Chicago Fire Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
    (1.64)
    4.17
    (4.54)
    3.54
    (4.61)
    5.5%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Chicago Fire?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Chicago will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 49.9%90.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3.
    • Cincinnati is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Chicago's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Cincinnati might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Cincinnati: Hagglund N. (Ribs Injury) Kubo Y. (Ankle Injury) Nwobodo O. (Injury) Orellano L. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Chicago: Brady C. (International duty) Cupps C. (Leg Injury) Poreba D. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Cincinnati: Sergio Santos (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Chicago: Gasper C. (Injury) Kouame R. (Lower-Body Injury) Mueller C. (Personal Reasons) Reynolds J. (Injury)
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.4:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Chicago Fire were as follows:
    19.04.2025 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 2:3
    17.07.2024 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 0:1
    02.03.2024 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 1:2
    03.06.2023 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 1:0
    18.03.2023 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 3:3
    Latest results of Cincinnati
    Latest results of Chicago Fire
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC24134747:321543
    2Vancouver Whitecaps23126539:261342
    3Minnesota United24118540:271341
    4Seattle Sounders23107637:33437
    5Los Angeles FC21106539:271236
    6Portland Timbers2397732:32034
    7Colorado Rapids24861030:36-630
    8Austin FC2286817:24-730
    9San Jose Earthquakes2478946:42429
    10Real Salt Lake23841124:29-528
    11Houston Dynamo24761130:39-927
    12FC Dallas23671032:41-925
    13Sporting Kansas City23661136:42-624
    14St. Louis City23461323:38-1518
    15Los Angeles Galaxy24371428:48-2016


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Cincinnati24153639:31848
    2Nashville SC24145542:251747
    3Philadelphia Union24145540:231747
    4Columbus Crew24128440:33744
    5Inter Miami21125449:341541
    6Orlando City24108643:321138
    7Charlotte241121141:39235
    8New York City23105830:26435
    9New York Red Bulls2496939:35433
    10Chicago Fire2395944:40432
    11New England Revolution23671030:32-225
    12Toronto FC23561225:30-521
    13Atlanta Utd23481127:43-1620
    14DC United24471320:45-2519
    15CF Montreal24361520:45-2515

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Which TV channels are streaming of Cincinnati - Chicago Fire?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    usaUsaMLS Season Pass
    worldWorldEA Sports FC
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