Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Two Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United
Result
3:2
26/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : League Two - Round 45
  • Referee: Nield T. (Eng)
Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.711.78
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
2214
Shots on target
84
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
67
Passes
64% (157/245)68% (219/320)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
2.711.78
xG on target (xGOT)
1.722.38
Total shots
2214
Shots on target
84
Shots off target
66
Blocked Shots
84
Shots inside the Box
1710
Shots outside the Box
54
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
67
Touches in opposition box
5028
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1710
Passes
64% (157/245)68% (219/320)
Long passes
33% (23/70)28% (18/65)
Passes in final third
64% (77/120)58% (77/133)
Crosses
19% (5/27)19% (5/26)
Expected assists (xA)
1.251.47
Throw-ins
2031
Fouls
1017
Tackles
52% (11/21)62% (13/21)
Duels won
7770
Clearances
4651
Interceptions
116
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
2.381.72
Goals prevented
0.38-1.28

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 6', Dennis M. 🟨,
  • 29', 0 - 1, Dennis M. ,
  • 32', Breeze G. 🟨,
  • 33', 1 - 1, Thomas J. (Pen),
  • 33', Hayden A. 🟨,
  • 45', 2 - 1, Hay A. , Archer E. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 59', Haynes R. , Power D. ,
  • 59', Dulson L. , Miller G. ,
  • 59', Backwell T. , Dieng T. ,
  • 68', Ellis J. , Vela J. ,
  • 68', Wearne S. , Embleton E. ,
  • 74', 2 - 2, Kelly G. , Embleton E. (A),
  • 78', Bradbury T. , Bakare I. ,
  • 79', Hay A. , Taylor M. ,
  • 79', Fusire S. , Hugill J. ,
  • 79', Harper C. , Dummett P. ,
  • 82', Jude-Boyd A. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 3 - 2, Miller G. , Taylor M. (A),

Chances of winning


Cheltenham Town
34.9%
Draw
26.6%
Carlisle United
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.5% 26.8% 31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5% 26.8% 31.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cheltenham Town's form might have worsened.
  • Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlisle United's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cheltenham Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-6.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlisle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.7
    (2.25)
    3.53
    (3.48)
    2.45
    (2.95)
    6.3%
    (7.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cheltenham will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Carlisle will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 29.6%90.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 16 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 3.
    • Recent matches Cheltenham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Carlisle is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
    • There will not play in Cheltenham: Pell H. (Knee Injury) Power D. (Hamstring Injury) Young L. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A. (Injury) Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)
    • There are questionable in Cheltenham: Bowman R. (Inactive)
    • Last 15 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10:12 (average 0.7:0.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Cheltenham won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:4 (average 0.6:0.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United were as follows:
    26.10.2024 Carlisle United - Cheltenham Town 0:1
    09.04.2024 Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United 0:1
    23.12.2023 Carlisle United - Cheltenham Town 0:1
    Latest results of Cheltenham Town
    Latest results of Carlisle United
    English League Two Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Colchester00000:000
    2Bristol Rovers00000:000
    3Cheltenham00000:000
    4Crewe00000:000
    5Gillingham00000:000
    6Oldham00000:000
    7Swindon00000:000
    8Tranmere00000:000
    9Walsall00000:000
    10Accrington00000:000
    11Barnet00000:000
    12Chesterfield00000:000
    13Grimsby00000:000
    14MK Dons00000:000
    15Notts Co00000:000
    16Shrewsbury00000:000
    17Cambridge Utd00000:000
    18Crawley00000:000
    19Barrow00000:000
    20Bromley00000:000
    21Newport00000:000
    22Harrogate00000:000
    23Fleetwood00000:000
    24Salford00000:000

          Promotion ~ League Two
          Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ National League

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