Burnley vs Derby County: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Cup Burnley - Derby County
Result
2:1
26/08/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : EFL Cup - 1/32-finals
  • Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
Burnley - Derby County - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.86
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
138
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
53
Passes
86% (441/511)84% (348/414)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.86
xG on target (xGOT)
1.440.50
Total shots
138
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
96
Shots outside the Box
42
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
2817
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
106
Passes
86% (441/511)84% (348/414)
Long passes
56% (28/50)41% (21/51)
Passes in final third
79% (124/157)64% (47/73)
Crosses
9% (2/22)38% (5/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.570.60
Throw-ins
1813
Fouls
611
Tackles
87% (13/15)50% (6/12)
Duels won
5242
Clearances
2631
Interceptions
817
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.501.44
Goals prevented
-0.50-0.56

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 4', 1 - 0, Ramsey A. , Broja A. (A),
  • 35', 1 - 1, Clark B. , Elder C. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Elder C. , Clarke M. ,
  • 46', Humphreys B. , Tuanzebe A. ,
  • 56', Adams E. 🟨,
  • 62', Osborn B. , Thompson L. ,
  • 62', Brewster R. , Weimann A. ,
  • 62', Clark B. , Brown D. ,
  • 62', Tchaouna L. , Banel J. ,
  • 63', Broja A. , Barnes A. ,
  • 70', Ward J. , Wilson K. ,
  • 78', Flemming Z. , Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ,
  • 90+1', 2 - 1, Sonne O. , Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (A),
  • 90+4', Ramsey A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Burnley
67.3%
Draw
21%
Derby County
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.3% 22.9% 16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7% 25.3% 15.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Burnley's performance.
  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
  • Burnley - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.42
    (1.56)
    4.56
    (4.11)
    8.25
    (5.63)
    4.5%
    (6.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Burnley - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Derby will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 59%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 50%). Derby (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2.
    • Burnley is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Burnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Burnley is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Humphreys B. (Thigh Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Hernia) Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Ebuka C. (Injury) Langas S. (Knee Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Burnley: Broja A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Esteve M. (Injury) Tuanzebe A. (Muscle Injury) Ugochukwu L. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Wilson K. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:2. (average 1.4:0.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 1.6:0.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Burnley - Derby County were as follows:
    08.04.2025 Derby County - Burnley 0:0
    10.12.2024 Burnley - Derby County 0:0
    Latest results of Burnley
    23.08.2025 Burnley - Sunderland 2:0
    09.08.2025 Burnley - Lazio 0:1
    02.08.2025 Stoke City - Burnley 1:0
    26.07.2025 Shrewsbury Town - Burnley 2:2
    Latest results of Derby County
    Draw
    Main

    1/64-finals
    1BirminghamSheffield Utd2 : 1
    2BlackpoolPort Vale0 : 1
    4ByeArsenal
    5BarnsleyFleetwood3 : 2
    6SalfordRotherham0 : 1
    7Oxford UtdColchester1 : 0
    8ByeBrighton
    9BoltonSheffield Wed3 : 4
    10ByeLeeds
    11GrimsbyShrewsbury3 : 1
    12ByeManchester Utd
    13BournemouthBye
    14ByeBrentford
    16ByeAston Villa
    17SwanseaCrawley3 : 1
    18PlymouthQPR3 : 2
    20ByeNottingham
    21SunderlandBye
    22HuddersfieldLeicester3 : 2
    24ByeManchester City
    25NewcastleBye
    27StokeWalsall1 : 0
    28BlackburnBradford City1 : 2
    29TottenhamBye
    31AccringtonPeterborough2 : 1
    32MiddlesbroughDoncaster0 : 4
    33BarrowPreston0 : 1
    34WrexhamHull4 : 3
    35PortsmouthReading1 : 2
    36GillinghamAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
    37BurnleyBye
    38West BromDerby1 : 2
    39CardiffSwindon2 : 1
    40CheltenhamExeter2 : 0
    41LiverpoolBye
    43WatfordNorwich1 : 2
    44NorthamptonSouthampton0 : 1
    45Crystal PalaceBye
    47NewportMillwall0 : 1
    48CoventryLuton1 : 0
    49WolvesBye
    50ByeWest Ham
    51EvertonBye
    52ChesterfieldMansfield0 : 2
    53TranmereBurton1 : 2
    54HarrogateLincoln1 : 3
    56ByeChelsea
    57WiganNotts Co1 : 0
    58Stockport CountyCrewe3 : 1
    59BromleyIpswich2 : 1
    60Leyton OrientWycombe0 : 1
    61FulhamBye
    62Bristol CityMK Dons2 : 0
    63Bristol RoversCambridge Utd0 : 2
    64CharltonStevenage3 : 1

    1/32-finals
    1BirminghamPort Vale0 : 1
    2ByeArsenal
    3BarnsleyRotherham2 : 1
    4Oxford UtdBrighton0 : 6
    5Sheffield WedLeeds2 : 1
    6GrimsbyManchester Utd3 : 2
    7BournemouthBrentford0 : 2
    8ByeAston Villa
    9SwanseaPlymouth2 : 1
    10ByeNottingham
    11SunderlandHuddersfield1 : 2
    12ByeManchester City
    13NewcastleBye
    14StokeBradford City0 : 3
    15TottenhamBye
    16AccringtonDoncaster0 : 2
    17PrestonWrexham2 : 3
    18ReadingAFC Wimbledon2 : 1
    19BurnleyDerby2 : 1
    20CardiffCheltenham3 : 0
    21LiverpoolBye
    22NorwichSouthampton0 : 3
    23Crystal PalaceBye
    24MillwallCoventry2 : 1
    25WolvesWest Ham3 : 2
    26EvertonMansfield2 : 0
    27BurtonLincoln0 : 1
    28ByeChelsea
    29WiganStockport County1 : 0
    30BromleyWycombe1 : 2
    31FulhamBristol City2 : 0
    32Cambridge UtdCharlton3 : 1

    1/16-finals
    1Port ValeArsenal0 : 2
    2BarnsleyBrighton0 : 6
    3Sheffield WedGrimsby0 : 1
    4BrentfordAston Villa2 : 1
    5SwanseaNottingham3 : 2
    6HuddersfieldManchester City0 : 2
    7NewcastleBradford City4 : 1
    8TottenhamDoncaster3 : 0
    9WrexhamReading2 : 0
    10BurnleyCardiff1 : 2
    11LiverpoolSouthampton2 : 1
    12Crystal PalaceMillwall2 : 1
    13WolvesEverton2 : 0
    14LincolnChelsea1 : 2
    15WiganWycombe0 : 2
    16FulhamCambridge Utd1 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1ArsenalBrighton
    2GrimsbyBrentford
    3SwanseaManchester City
    4NewcastleTottenham
    5WrexhamCardiff
    6LiverpoolCrystal Palace
    7WolvesChelsea
    8WycombeFulham
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