River Plate vs Boca Juniors: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Argentinian Liga Profesional
Soccer Argentinian Liga Profesional River Plate - Boca Juniors
Result
2:1
27/04/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 15
  • Referee: Ramirez N. (Arg)
River Plate - Boca Juniors - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.111.38
Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
159
Shots on target
93
Big Chances
43
Corner Kicks
45
Passes
80% (274/344)81% (340/421)
Yellow Cards
65
Expected Goals (xG)
2.111.38
xG on target (xGOT)
2.222.33
Total shots
159
Shots on target
93
Shots off target
23
Blocked Shots
43
Shots inside the Box
109
Shots outside the Box
50
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
43
Corner Kicks
45
Touches in opposition box
2219
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1312
Passes
80% (274/344)81% (340/421)
Long passes
31% (11/35)36% (17/47)
Passes in final third
72% (93/129)60% (54/90)
Crosses
39% (7/18)19% (3/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.641.03
Throw-ins
2419
Fouls
1213
Tackles
52% (11/21)58% (15/26)
Duels won
5458
Clearances
2523
Interceptions
59
Errors leading to shot
12
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
27
xGOT faced
2.332.22
Goals prevented
1.330.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 12', Belmonte T. 🟨,
  • 19', Costa A. 🟨,
  • 23', Rojo M. 🟨,
  • 26', 1 - 0, Mastantuono F. ⚽,
  • 39', 1 - 1, Miguel Merentiel ⚽, Blanco L. (A),
  • 45', 2 - 1, Driussi S. ⚽,
  • 45+1', Miguel Borja 🟨,
  • 45+1', Acuna M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Montiel G. ↓, Bustos F. ↑,
  • 55', Giuliano Galoppo ↓, Meza M. ↑,
  • 55', Meza M. 🟨,
  • 62', Advincula L. 🟨,
  • 67', Belmonte T. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
  • 67', Rojo M. ↓, Di Lollo L. ↑,
  • 72', Colidio F. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
  • 73', Perez E. ↓, Aliendro R. ↑,
  • 74', Martinez Quarta L. 🟨,
  • 75', Driussi S. ↓, Miguel Borja ↑,
  • 85', Battaglia R. 🟨,
  • 87', Blanco L. ↓, Saracchi M. ↑,
  • 90+1', Delgado M. ↓, Aguirre B. ↑,
  • 90+2', Mastantuono F. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Castano K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


River Plate
49.4%		Draw
29.3%		Boca Juniors
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.7% 31.7% 26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2% 32.1% 26.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • River Plate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate's performance.
  • Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Boca Juniors might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (-7.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
    •

    River Plate - Boca Juniors Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.93 ↓
    (2.27)    		 3.25 ↑
    (2.99)    		 4.35 ↑
    (3.56)    		 5.5%
    (5.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    •
    What is the prediction for River Plate - Boca Juniors?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 8% – 64.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. River Plate (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.5 - Boca Juniors (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • River Plate is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • Boca Juniors is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches River Plate won 3.
    • Recent matches River Plate is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Boca Juniors is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Boca Juniors could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match River Plate is a favorite.
    • Last 12 head-to-head matches River Plate won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:12 (average 1.1:1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:8 (average 1.3:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between River Plate - Boca Juniors were as follows:
    21.09.2024 Boca Juniors - River Plate 0:1
    21.04.2024 River Plate - Boca Juniors 2:3
    25.02.2024 River Plate - Boca Juniors 1:1
    01.10.2023 Boca Juniors - River Plate 0:2
    07.05.2023 River Plate - Boca Juniors 1:0
    Latest results of River Plate
    23.04.2025 Independiente del Valle - River Plate 2:2 ✺
    18.04.2025 Gimnasia La Plata - River Plate 0:3 ✺
    13.04.2025 River Plate - Talleres de Córdoba 1:1 ✺
    08.04.2025 River Plate - Barcelona Guayaquil 0:0 ✺
    05.04.2025 Sarmiento de Junín - River Plate 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Boca Juniors
    19.04.2025 Boca Juniors - Estudiantes La Plata 2:0 ✺
    12.04.2025 Belgrano - Boca Juniors 1:3 ✺
    06.04.2025 Boca Juniors - Barracas Central 1:0 ✺
    30.03.2025 Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors 2:0 ✺
    07.03.2025 Central Córdoba - Boca Juniors 0:3 ✺
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union de Santa Fe1045115:8717
    2Barracas Central1044212:10216
    3Defensa y Justicia1043311:9215
    4Tigre104339:7215
    5Estudiantes L.P950410:10015
    6Boca Juniors1035213:8514
    7Argentinos Jrs1042412:8414
    8Central Cordoba1035212:9314
    9Banfield104249:13-414
    10Belgrano1034310:8213
    11Huracan103435:8-313
    12Racing Club1032510:12-211
    13Ind. Rivadavia1024410:12-210
    14Newells Old Boys92348:11-39
    15Aldosivi100371:14-133


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Dep. Riestra1071214:6822
    2Velez Sarsfield1063114:5921
    3River Plate1053217:9818
    4Lanus105239:8117
    5San Lorenzo104428:6216
    6Rosario Central93609:4515
    7Atl. Tucuman1033411:11012
    8Sarmiento Junin93338:10-212
    9Instituto102535:11-611
    10Platense924310:13-310
    11San Martin S.J102448:11-310
    12Talleres Cordoba102445:9-410
    13Gimnasia L.P103166:12-610
    14Godoy Cruz101548:13-58
    15Independiente90545:9-45

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

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