Benfica vs Chelsea: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer FIFA Club World Cup
Soccer FIFA Club World Cup Benfica - Chelsea
Result
1:4 ET
28/06/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : FIFA Club World Cup - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
  • Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)
Benfica - Chelsea - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.202.68
Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
822
Shots on target
512
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
210
Passes
84% (379/450)92% (723/790)
Yellow Cards
73
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
1.202.68
xG on target (xGOT)
1.744.25
Total shots
822
Shots on target
512
Shots off target
16
Blocked Shots
24
Shots inside the Box
614
Shots outside the Box
28
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
210
Touches in opposition box
1546
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
74
Free Kicks
2114
Passes
84% (379/450)92% (723/790)
Long passes
43% (22/51)45% (17/38)
Passes in final third
61% (48/79)82% (220/267)
Crosses
38% (3/8)19% (4/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.341.53
Throw-ins
1913
Fouls
1421
Tackles
53% (8/15)71% (15/21)
Duels won
4542
Clearances
2312
Interceptions
1211
Errors leading to shot
30
Errors leading to goal
40
Goalkeeper Saves
84
xGOT faced
4.251.74
Goals prevented
0.250.74

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Schjelderup A. ↓, Akturkoglu K. ↑,
  • 50', Pavlidis V. 🟨,
  • 61', Caicedo M. 🟨,
  • 63', Florentino 🟨,
  • 64', 0 - 1, James R. ⚽,
  • 69', Badiashile B. ↓, Adarabioyo T. ↑,
  • 70', Pavlidis V. ↓, Belotti A. ↑,
  • 70', Florentino ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
  • 80', Delap L. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
  • 80', Fernandez E. ↓, Dewsbury-Hall K. ↑,
  • 80', James R. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
  • 82', Kokcu O. 🟨,
  • 86', Aursnes F. ↓, Gouveia T. ↑,
  • 86', Kokcu O. ↓, Veloso J. ↑,
  • 87', Lavia R. ↓, Chalobah T. ↑,
  • 90+4', Silva A. 🟨,
  • 90+5', 1 - 1, Di Maria A. (Pen),
  • 90+6', Prestianni G. 🟨,
  • Extra Time (0 - 3)
  • 92', Prestianni G. 🟨,
  • 92', Palmer C. 🟨,
  • 102', Colwill L. 🟨,
  • 108', 1 - 2, Nkunku C. ⚽,
  • 115', 1 - 3, Neto P. ⚽, Caicedo M. (A),
  • 117', 1 - 4, Dewsbury-Hall K. ⚽, Palmer C. (A),
  • 118', Colwill L. ↓, Anselmino A. ↑,
  • 120+2', Gouveia T. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Benfica
28.1%		Draw
27.9%		Chelsea
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
22.8% 25.1% 52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4% 24.7% 53%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.
  • Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chelsea might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chelsea could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Benfica - Chelsea Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.41 ↓
    (4.2)    		 3.43 ↓
    (3.82)    		 2.17 ↑
    (1.84)    		 4.5%
    (4.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Benfica - Chelsea?
  • Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 12 - 26.1%). Chelsea will win (votes: 22 - 47.8%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 26.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 33.4% – 62.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Benfica (votes: 7 - 50%). Chelsea (votes: 7 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.5 - Benfica (votes: 3 - 100%).
    • BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • DC - Benfica (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In recent matches, Benfica has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Chelsea is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.
    • Chelsea could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Benfica: Araujo T. (Injury) Bah A. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Chelsea: Castledine L. (Back Injury) Fofana W. (Hamstring Injury) Jackson N. (Red Card) Kellyman O. (Hamstring Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)
    • There are questionable in Benfica: Sanches R. (Injury)
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
    Latest results of Benfica
    24.06.2025 Benfica - Bayern Munich 1:0 ✺
    20.06.2025 Benfica - Auckland City 6:0 ✺
    16.06.2025 Boca Juniors - Benfica 2:2 ✺
    25.05.2025 Benfica - Sporting Lisbon 1:3 ✺
    17.05.2025 Braga - Benfica 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Chelsea
    24.06.2025 Espérance ST - Chelsea 0:3 ✺
    20.06.2025 Flamengo - Chelsea 3:1 ✺
    16.06.2025 Chelsea - Los Angeles 2:0 ✺
    28.05.2025 Betis - Chelsea 1:4 ✺
    25.05.2025 Nottingham Forest - Chelsea 0:1 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Inter (E1)Fluminense (F2)0 : 2
    2Manchester City (G1)Al Hilal (H2)3 : 4
    3Palmeiras (A1)Botafogo RJ (B2)1 : 0
    4Benfica (C1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 4
    5PSG (B1)Inter Miami (A2)4 : 0
    6Flamengo RJ (D1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 4
    7Real Madrid (H1)Juventus (G2)1 : 0
    8Dortmund (F1)Monterrey (E2)2 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Al Hilal (H2)2 : 1
    2Palmeiras (A1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 2
    3PSG (B1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 0
    4Real Madrid (H1)Dortmund (F1)3 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Chelsea (D2)0 : 2
    2PSG (B1)Real Madrid (H1)4 : 0

    Final
    1Chelsea (D2)PSG (B1)3 : 0
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