Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Spanish LaLiga Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid
Result
5:2
27/09/2025 at 10:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : LaLiga - Round 7
Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.310.58
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
136
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
72
Passes
79% (242/307)88% (470/537)
Yellow Cards
54
Expected Goals (xG)
2.310.58
xG on target (xGOT)
2.290.67
Total shots
136
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
42
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
83
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
2113
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1417
Passes
79% (242/307)88% (470/537)
Long passes
36% (18/50)52% (25/48)
Passes in final third
67% (57/85)79% (111/140)
Crosses
26% (6/23)22% (4/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.310.61
Throw-ins
1513
Fouls
1714
Tackles
50% (7/14)75% (9/12)
Duels won
4252
Clearances
2222
Interceptions
87
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
11
Goalkeeper Saves
02
xGOT faced
0.672.29
Goals prevented
-1.33-2.71

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 2)
  • 14', 1 - 0, Le Normand R. , Simeone G. (A),
  • 22', Sorloth A. 🟨,
  • 25', 1 - 1, Mbappe K. , Guler A. (A),
  • 36', 1 - 2, Guler A. , Vinicius Junior (A),
  • 40', Gonzalez N. 🟨,
  • 45+3', 2 - 2, Sorloth A. , Koke (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 46', Eder Militao , Asencio R. ,
  • 50', Guler A. 🟨,
  • 51', 3 - 2, Alvarez J. (Pen),
  • 56', Lenglet C. 🟨,
  • 58', Asencio R. 🟨,
  • 59', Carvajal D. , Camavinga E. ,
  • 59', Guler A. , Mastantuono F. ,
  • 62', Carreras A. 🟨,
  • 63', 4 - 2, Alvarez J. ,
  • 67', Sorloth A. , Gallagher C. ,
  • 70', Bellingham J. , Rodrygo ,
  • 82', Simeone G. 🟨,
  • 83', Hancko D. , Galan J. ,
  • 83', Gonzalez N. , Griezmann A. ,
  • 89', Huijsen D. , Garcia F. ,
  • 90+2', Simeone G. , Baena A. ,
  • 90+2', Alvarez J. , Molina N. ,
  • 90+3', 5 - 2, Griezmann A. , Baena A. (A),
  • 90+5', Gallagher C. 🟨,
  • 90+6', Mastantuono F. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Atlético Madrid
31.1%
Draw
27.4%
Real Madrid
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.2% 27.6% 41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4% 27.8% 40.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
  • Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.16
    (3.16)
    3.55
    (3.57)
    2.34
    (2.39)
    2.6%
    (1.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid?
  • Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 6 - 14%). Real will win (votes: 27 - 62.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 23.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 48.4%77.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Real (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
    • AH +0.25 - Atlético (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 0.
    • Recent performances by Atlético have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Real is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Real will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Atlético: Almada T. (Muscle Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Real: Alexander-Arnold T. (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Atlético: Cardoso J. (Ankle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:33. (average 1.4:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.4:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid were as follows:
    12.03.2025 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:1
    04.03.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 2:1
    08.02.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    29.09.2024 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:1
    04.02.2024 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    Latest results of Atlético Madrid
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    23.09.2025 Levante - Real Madrid 1:4
    20.09.2025 Real Madrid - Espanyol 2:0
    30.08.2025 Real Madrid - Mallorca 2:1
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Real Madrid870119:91021
    2Barcelona861122:91319
    3Villarreal851214:8616
    4Betis843113:8515
    5Atl. Madrid834115:10513
    6Sevilla841315:11413
    7Elche834111:9213
    8Ath Bilbao84139:9013
    9Espanyol833211:11012
    10Alaves83239:8111
    11Getafe83239:11-211
    12Osasuna83147:8-110
    13Levante822413:14-18
    14Rayo Vallecano82248:10-28
    15Valencia822410:14-48
    16Celta Vigo80627:10-36
    17R. Oviedo82064:14-106
    18Girona81345:17-126
    19Real Sociedad81257:12-55
    20Mallorca81257:13-65

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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    africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
    albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 1
    andorraAndorrabeIN Sports 1
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    asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
    australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
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    finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
    franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
    germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
    greeceGreeceNova Sports 1
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    hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
    hungaryHungarySpiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
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    italyItalyDAZN Italia, Italia 1
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    mexicoMexicoSky Sport
    mozambiqueMozambiqueStartimes Mania
    netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport
    new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect, TVWan
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    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDirecTV Sports Caribbean, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
    north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaTDM Desporto
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    south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
    south-americaSouth-americaDGO Latin America
    spainSpainDAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
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    ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
    uruguayUruguayDirecTV Sports, DSports 1
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