Atlético Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Spanish LaLiga Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano
Result
3:2
24/09/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : LaLiga - Round 6
Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.980.91
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
209
Shots on target
83
Big Chances
103
Corner Kicks
86
Passes
87% (503/575)81% (299/370)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
3.980.91
xG on target (xGOT)
2.810.76
Total shots
209
Shots on target
83
Shots off target
86
Blocked Shots
40
Shots inside the Box
175
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
103
Corner Kicks
86
Touches in opposition box
4715
Accurate through passes
12
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
126
Passes
87% (503/575)81% (299/370)
Long passes
45% (19/42)48% (27/56)
Passes in final third
82% (145/176)55% (44/80)
Crosses
50% (12/24)6% (1/17)
Expected assists (xA)
2.370.53
Throw-ins
2221
Fouls
612
Tackles
67% (8/12)60% (12/20)
Duels won
4339
Clearances
1520
Interceptions
127
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.762.81
Goals prevented
-1.24-0.19

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 15', 1 - 0, Alvarez J. , Llorente M. (A),
  • 45+1', 1 - 1, Chavarria P. , Lopez U. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 51', Koke 🟨,
  • 54', Balliu I. 🟨,
  • 56', Koke , Gonzalez N. ,
  • 56', Molina N. , Simeone G. ,
  • 65', Perez F. , Garcia A. ,
  • 65', Valentin O. , Ciss P. ,
  • 66', Alemao , Pacha ,
  • 73', Galan J. , Raspadori G. ,
  • 78', 1 - 2, Garcia A. , Palazon I. (A),
  • 79', Lopez U. , Diaz P. ,
  • 79', Gallagher C. , Pubill M. ,
  • 79', Griezmann A. , Ruggeri M. ,
  • 80', 2 - 2, Alvarez J. ,
  • 86', Palazon I. , Gumbau G. ,
  • 87', Llorente M. 🟨,
  • 87', Chavarria P. 🟨,
  • 88', 3 - 2, Alvarez J. , Simeone G. (A),
  • 90+3', Ciss P. 🟨,
  • 90+6', Le Normand R. 🟨,
  • 90+8', Ratiu A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Atlético Madrid
64%
Draw
22.7%
Rayo Vallecano
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.4% 21.5% 16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8% 21% 15.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+2.5%)
  • Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.52
    (1.51)
    4.3
    (4.39)
    7.17
    (5.83)
    3.2%
    (6.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano?
  • Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 65 - 89%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 2 - 2.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 8.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 81.8%96.2%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1 - Atlético (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Atlético Madrid will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 14).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 4.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Atlético is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Atlético: Almada T. (Muscle Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Thigh Injury) Sorloth A. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Muscle Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Nteka R. (Contusion)
    • There are questionable in Atlético: Cardoso J. (Ankle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 15 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 45:13. (average 2.3:0.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 25:6. (average 2.5:0.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano were as follows:
    24.04.2025 Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 3:0
    22.09.2024 Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    31.01.2024 Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1
    28.08.2023 Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid 0:7
    09.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid 1:2
    Latest results of Atlético Madrid
    Latest results of Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Real Madrid660014:31118
    2Barcelona651019:41516
    3Villarreal641112:5713
    4Espanyol733110:9112
    5Elche62408:5310
    6Ath Bilbao63127:7010
    7Getafe63127:8-110
    8Atl. Madrid62319:729
    9Betis62319:729
    10Alaves62226:608
    11Valencia62228:10-28
    12Sevilla621310:1007
    13Osasuna62135:507
    14Rayo Vallecano61237:9-25
    15Celta Vigo60515:7-25
    16Real Sociedad61236:9-35
    17Levante611410:13-34
    18R. Oviedo61052:11-93
    19Girona70343:16-133
    20Mallorca60245:11-62

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    africaAfricaAzam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 4, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
    andorraAndorrabeIN Sports 1
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    austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
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    brazilBrazilDisney+
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    canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, TSN+
    chileChileDirecTV Sports
    chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
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    czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
    denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
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    europeEuropeGo3 Sport 1 Baltic
    finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
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    germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
    greeceGreeceNova Sports Prime
    haitiHaitiCanal+ Sport 1
    hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live
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    kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports
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    laosLaosbeIN Connect
    macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 34 Football
    madagascarMadagascarUpTV
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    maltaMaltaTSN Malta 4
    mexicoMexicoSky Sport
    new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
    nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport LaLiga
    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
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    norwayNorwayTV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
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    philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
    polandPolandEleven Sports 1
    portugalPortugalDAZN 4, DAZN / App
    romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
    serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 3
    singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
    slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
    sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1 Premium
    south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
    south-americaSouth-americaDGO Latin America
    spainSpainLaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, M+ LaLiga
    swedenSwedenTV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
    thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
    turkeyTurkeyS Sport, S Sport+
    ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
    uruguayUruguayDirecTV Sports, DSports 1
    usaUsaDAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
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