Result
2:3
12/04/2025 at 21:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- : Liga MX - Clausura - Round 15
- Referee: Huitron D. (Mex)
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Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.46 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (243/298) | 85% (355/419) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.46 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.45 | 2.39 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 24 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (243/298) | 85% (355/419) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (28/51) | 51% (28/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (59/96) | 78% (98/126) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (5/20) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.42 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (4/8) | 82% (18/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 26 | 53 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 14 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.39 | 2.45 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.61 | 0.41 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 15', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Ruiz M. (A),
- 23', Rocha A. 🟨,
- 24', Matheus Doria 🟨,
- 24', 0 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. (A),
- 29', Bruno Mendez 🟨,
- 30', 1 - 2, Aguirre E. ⚽,
- 39', Angulo J. 🟨,
- 40', Paulinho 🟨,
- 45+1', 2 - 2, Aguirre E. ⚽, Djurdjevic U. (A),
- 45+3', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 55', Nervo H. 🟨,
- 69', Bruno Mendez ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 69', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↓, Gallardo J. ↑,
- 69', Violante I. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 78', 2 - 3, Paulinho ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
- 79', Nervo H. ↓, Coccaro M. ↑,
- 79', Gonzalez D. ↓, Del Prete G. ↑,
- 82', Vega A. ↓, Luan ↑,
- 90+4', Lozano J. ↓, Guzman Rodriguez J. L. ↑,
- 90+4', Rocha A. ↓, Serrato J. ↑,
- 90+6', Paulinho ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
- 90+7', Aguirre G. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Atlas
27.4% | Draw
25.2% | Toluca
47.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toluca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Atlas - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.44 ↓
(4) |
3.71 ↑
(3.7) |
1.98 ↑
(1.83) |
6.5%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Atlas - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Atlas will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Toluca will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 23.1% – 88.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Atlas (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlas won 0.
- Recent matches Atlas is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Toluca is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
- Atlas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- In this match Toluca is a favorite.
- There will not play in Atlas: Cruz C.
(Knee Injury)
Del Prete G.
(Knee Injury)
Manotas M.
(Knee Injury)
Ortega E.
(Suspended)
Zaldivar E.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlas: Flores L.
(Muscle Injury)
Lozano B.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Briseno A.
(Inactive)
Herrera H.
(Inactive)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches Atlas won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 24:37 (average 1.2:1.9).
- Including matches at home between the teams Atlas won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:8 (average 0.8:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlas won against Toluca?
Atlas has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlas?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlas - Toluca were as follows:
28.09.2024
Toluca
-
Atlas
4:1
07.04.2024
Toluca
-
Atlas
4:1
26.08.2023
Atlas
-
Toluca
0:0
01.02.2023
Atlas
-
Toluca
0:0
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 35:16 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 26:11 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25:19 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 22:15 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 23:13 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16:13 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Juarez | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18:18 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Atlas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21:27 | -6 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Leon | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:22 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Mazatlan FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15:21 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14:21 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Atl. San Luis | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 17:20 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 13:21 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11:21 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Puebla | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:29 | -19 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Which TV channels are streaming of Atlas - Toluca?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN, Univision |
