Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

18/05/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia).

: LaLiga - Round 37
Referee: Ruiz A. (Esp)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.48	1.37
Ball Possession
56%	44%
Total shots
6	10
Shots on target
2	4
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
5	3
Passes
82% (448/544)	83% (361/434)
Yellow Cards
3	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.48	1.37
xG on target (xGOT)
0.25	1.59
Total shots
6	10
Shots on target
2	4
Shots off target
1	3
Blocked Shots
3	3
Shots inside the Box
6	5
Shots outside the Box
0	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
5	3
Touches in opposition box
12	14
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	5
Free Kicks
16	10
Passes
82% (448/544)	83% (361/434)
Long passes
38% (22/58)	36% (15/42)
Passes in final third
55% (45/82)	63% (72/114)
Crosses
30% (3/10)	25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.43	0.69
Throw-ins
14	12
Fouls
10	16
Tackles
59% (10/17)	82% (9/11)
Duels won
43	32
Clearances
18	22
Interceptions
5	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	2
xGOT faced
1.59	0.25
Goals prevented
0.59	0.25

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Boiro A. 🟨,
42', Gaya J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Lopez D. ↓, Ivan Jaime ↑,
64', Sancet O. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
64', Boiro A. ↓, Williams I. ↑,
66', Rioja L. 🟨,
72', 0 - 1, Berenguer A. ⚽, Gomez U. (A),
74', Almeida A. ↓, Duro H. ↑,
74', Sadiq U. ↓, Mir R. ↑,
74', Prados Diaz B. ↓, Jauregizar M. ↑,
75', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
82', Guruzeta G. ↓, Sannadi M. ↑,
82', Diakhaby M. ↓, Aarons M. ↑,
82', Gaya J. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
90+3', Mir R. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Valencia
39.9%

Draw
31.6%

Athletic Bilbao
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.6%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

30.2%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Valencia - Athletic Bilbao Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.62)	3.05 ↓ (3.26)	3.36 ↑ (2.87)	4.1% (3.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Valencia - Athletic Bilbao?

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Valencia will win (votes: 35 - 68.6%). Athletic will win (votes: 6 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 19.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valencia: 55.9% – 81.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Valencia will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
Athletic is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 1.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Valencia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Valencia might have a minor edge in this game.
There will not play in Valencia: Correia T. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Athletic: Williams N. (Pelvis Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Valencia won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Valencia won against Athletic Bilbao?

Valencia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Bilbao won against Valencia?

Athletic Bilbao has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Valencia - Athletic Bilbao were as follows:

28.08.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Valencia 1:0

20.01.2024 Valencia - Athletic Bilbao 1:0

29.10.2023 Athletic Bilbao - Valencia 2:2

11.02.2023 Valencia - Athletic Bilbao 1:2

26.01.2023 Valencia - Athletic Bilbao 1:3

Latest results of Valencia

14.05.2025 Deportivo Alavés - Valencia 1:0 ✺

10.05.2025 Valencia - Getafe 3:0 ✺

03.05.2025 Las Palmas - Valencia 2:3 ✺

22.04.2025 Valencia - Espanyol 1:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Rayo Vallecano - Valencia 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Athletic Bilbao

15.05.2025 Getafe - Athletic Bilbao 0:2 ✺

11.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés 1:0 ✺

08.05.2025 Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao 4:1 ✺

04.05.2025 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺

01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3 ✺

Spanish LaLiga Table

2024/25

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	28	4	6	102:39	63	88
2	Real Madrid	38	26	6	6	78:38	40	84
3	Atl. Madrid	38	22	10	6	68:30	38	76
4	Ath Bilbao	38	19	13	6	54:29	25	70
5	Villarreal	38	20	10	8	71:51	20	70
6	Betis	38	16	12	10	57:50	7	60
7	Celta Vigo	38	16	7	15	59:57	2	55
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	13	13	12	41:45	-4	52
9	Osasuna	38	12	16	10	48:52	-4	52
10	Mallorca	38	13	9	16	35:44	-9	48
11	Real Sociedad	38	13	7	18	35:46	-11	46
12	Valencia	38	11	13	14	44:54	-10	46
13	Getafe	38	11	9	18	34:39	-5	42
14	Espanyol	38	11	9	18	40:51	-11	42
15	Alaves	38	10	12	16	38:48	-10	42
16	Girona	38	11	8	19	44:60	-16	41
17	Sevilla	38	10	11	17	42:55	-13	41
18	Leganes	38	9	13	16	39:56	-17	40
19	Las Palmas	38	8	8	22	40:61	-21	32
20	Valladolid	38	4	4	30	26:90	-64	16

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ LaLiga2

Which TV channels are streaming of Valencia - Athletic Bilbao?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena, SuperSport OTT 2, SuperSport Variety 2
Albania	SuperSport 5
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
India	FanCode, FanCode, GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, RCTI+
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Maldives	ICE Plus, Medianet
Mexico	Canal 5, Sky Sport, VIX+, ViX Premium
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport OTT 2
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 8
South-africa	SuperSport OTT 2, SuperSport Variety 2, SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar 5, LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga TV 2, M+ LaLiga TV 3, M+ LaLiga TV
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Taiwan	DAZN
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 11
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online